Ip Share Discussion Threads

[pierre oreilly] 24/6/2021 12:17

Johnwig, well i've been posting (not ramping) on ipo since it was 65p, probably before your time with your current handle.

Certainly judged to be a much safer bet and much more profitable than almost double the price you paid. Such a shame you weren't around then, it had all the properties of one about to rise substantially, even though, as i posted at the time to the despair of the regulars, that management were very backward thinking, since corrected (hardly the words of a ramper).

Still, i'm sure you'll double yours from here (four bagger for me if it does|) once the nano float is finalised.

[masurenguy] 20/6/2021 19:08

Cheers Bamboo - I find your technical analysis to be a very interesting and cogent factor in determining top up opportunities.

[bamboo2] 20/6/2021 16:08

Mas, Funnily enough I was just working on the charts over lunch.

I use NDX as a proxy to try and gauge basic sentiment in the tech sector. It has been doing okay lately, so I am surprised to see weakness here.

Up until two sessions ago visible volumes were quite low, so assume the drift is generally a low volume phenomenon and therefore not a concern. Volume has picked up however, last Thursday and Friday.

When possible, I follow the trading sessions quite closely, as I am trying to learn more about the markets here and elsewhere. Over recent weeks there has been quite extreme volatility early in the sessions and this has lead to some very long daily candles. As the extremes of these candles has seen little volume, I am wary of using my apex based technique to call turn days with any great accuracy.

Obviously as has been mentioned previously, the current pattern does have some similarity to a H&S. A smaller H&S has already confirmed and hit its target price. The large one, which shares the same head, is confirmed on an eod close below approx 110. We need to be aware that this is a possibility.

I do keep notes of possible turn dates on my day planner and there was one on 18/6/2021. This shows on both the mid chart and the last market price based chart, but as I said earlier, these have not been as accurate as in the past.

I am hopeful we have seen a low, as I bought quite a few trading shares late on Friday.

[masurenguy] 20/6/2021 15:38

Hi Bamboo2 - we've just hit an 18 week low and we're off by 15% from this years peak in April. Do you see any technical signs that might suggest a potential turn date here ?

[wba1] 20/6/2021 14:32

bamboo2; thanks for the update on Centessa. Makes sense.

[rambutan2] 19/6/2021 16:44

I'm thinking that the seller who has been pushing down the price is quite likely to be Odey, which has been suffering from redemptions for a while. If so, an rns should be due shortly as last notification was 3.1%.

[bamboo2] 19/6/2021 10:17

Re, wba1 - 06 Apr 2021 - 12:34:48 - 1006
"...Apcintex is now part of Centessa. It is unclear to me whether IPO have exited Apcintex and what value that has realised, or if they continue to hold their stake in Apcintex alongside Centessa, or if they have exchanged the Apcintex stake for a stake in Centessa..."


wba, re your earlier question, this was answered recently during the AGM update.
I have added a chart to the listed holdings in post 1.

IPGroup now hold 2.8% of Centessa [CNTA] This helps broaden the variety of investments, reducing risk.




2.8% 09/6/2021

[bamboo2] 19/6/2021 10:05

Less than three months after Artois announced a tie-in with Novartis, we have this news. As the POLQ inhibitors were left out of the original deal, could we see Novartis or others considering an increase their interest at this point? [Merck for example?]

[bamboo2] 19/6/2021 09:56

Scientists have identified a new class of drugs that could lead to potential treatments for cancers which are caused by mutations in the BRCA gene.

These drugs, known as POLQ inhibitors, are able to destroy cancer cells with BRCA mutations without damaging healthy cells.

The study, published in Nature Communications, offers new hope for cancers caused by defects in the BRCA gene, such as breast, ovarian and prostate cancer, which have become resistant to existing treatment involving another class of drugs known as PARP inhibitors.

Study co-leader Chris Lord, professor of cancer genomics at the Institute of Cancer Research (ICR), London said: “All cells have to be able to repair damage to their DNA to stay healthy – otherwise mutations build up and eventually kill them.

“We have identified a new class of precision medicine that strips cancers of their ability to repair their DNA.

“This new type of treatment has the potential to be effective against cancers which already have weaknesses in their ability to repair their DNA, through defects in their BRCA genes.

“And excitingly, the new drugs also seem to work against cancer cells that have stopped responding to an existing treatment called PARP inhibitors – potentially opening up a new way of overcoming drug resistance.”

A BRCA mutation occurs when the DNA that makes up the gene becomes damaged.

When a BRCA gene is mutated, it may no longer be effective at helping prevent cancers such as breast, ovarian, pancreatic and prostate.

For their study, scientists at the ICR and pharmaceutical company Artios treated cancer cells grown in the lab with the faulty BRCA gene using POLQ inhibitors.

Tests were also conducted on rats, which showed that POLQ inhibitors were able to shrink cancers that had become resistant to PARP inhibitors.

They also found that cancer cells treated with POLQ inhibitors were stripped of their ability to repair their DNA and died, but normal cells did not.

The experts said this offers hope that POLQ inhibitors could be a potential treatment for cancer with relatively few side effects.

Based on their findings, the researchers are planning to run clinical trials as part of the next steps.

Study co-leader Dr Graeme Smith, chief scientific officer at Artios Pharma, Cambridge said: “These exciting preclinical results provide a clear rationale for future clinical studies with a POLQ inhibitor.

“At Artios, we are on track to initiate our POLQ clinical programme before the year end to explore POLQ inhibition in the sensitive cancer types that this study has uncovered.”

Commenting on the findings, Dr Simon Vincent, director of research, support and influencing at Breast Cancer Now, said: “Men and women with a change in one of their BRCA genes are at greater risk of being diagnosed with breast cancer, and around 5% of the 55,000 cases of breast cancer diagnosed in the UK each year are caused by an inherited altered gene, which includes BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes.

“It’s therefore hugely exciting that POLQ inhibitors could provide a targeted treatment option for people whose cancer is caused by altered BRCA genes.”

[wba1] 18/6/2021 17:10

trollwatch; my interest is in my investment in IP. My understanding of fusion is quite adequate to identify the key issues in what is PR puff but I lack interest in the fine detail of the science. But I get the impression there is more to your post and would not wish to join any sport between you and the others.

[p1nkfish] 18/6/2021 14:24

Fusion can kick the world out of the coming long term depression, that or WW3. I prefer the idea of Fusion.

[p1nkfish] 18/6/2021 14:20

By the time all the variables are sorted anyone involved will be worth billions. Its the uncertainty that offers the potential reward. No uncertainty = little to no reward.

JET at Culham is a good place to be and Bezos backed company moving there too, others etc. No coincidence.

I just want UK to beat ITER in France. Talk about spending billions!

[wba1] 18/6/2021 12:49

I am always happy to see positive PR, but there are two big questions (and many smaller ones) it does not answer and which make the claim that a fusion plant (at least a commercial one) is achievable with existing technology and materials unproven. The big question is what would be the Q factor of such a plant (the gain expressed as power out over power in). A commercial plant would need a Q factor >10. Secondly, what is the engineering solution proposed for extracting the energy and conversion to electricity?

FLF have an interesting approach to initiating fusion and that could be a step change if proven and scalable, but it is not a fusion plant.

[bamboo2] 17/6/2021 23:44

hashertu, thanks. Let's have the whole press release, to save having to look it up.


First Light Fusion Ltd - UK Science Minister Amanda Solloway MP to launch First Light Fusion’s maiden ‘Big Gun’ fusion campaign
17 Jun 2021

UK Science Minister Amanda Solloway MP to visit Oxford HQ and fire the first shot of First Light’s maiden fusion campaign using the ‘Big Gun’
‘Big Gun’ is the UK’s largest 2-stage hyper velocity gas gun. It launches projectiles at 6.5 kms per second, 20x the speed of sound
First Light’s target technology turns the input into a 70 km/s (250,000 km/h) fuel compression producing pressure 30 times the centre of the Earth
The maiden 21-shot fusion campaign is part of First Light’s effort to deliver the conditions required to achieve fusion
Amanda Solloway MP, UK Science Minister and Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Science, Research and Innovation, will today visit First Light Fusion’s Oxford HQ and officially fire the first ‘shot’ in First Light’s maiden fusion campaign using its newly completed ‘Big Gun’.

At 22 metres long and weighing 25,000 kg, the Big Gun is the largest of its kind in the UK. First Light finalised construction of the £1.1 million device in May 2021 and has since successfully completed the testing and commissioning phase. These ‘hyper velocity’ devices are typically used by astrophysicists to simulate meteorite impacts.

When fired, the gun will launch a projectile into a vacuum chamber at speeds of over 6.5 km/s, or 20 times the speed of sound. The projectile will impact a fusion target – the centrepiece of First Light’s unique approach to fusion.

With the benefit of First Light’s unique amplification technology, the collapsing velocity of the fusion fuel will reach in excess of 70 km/s, or 250,000 kms/hour (over 200 times the speed of sound) producing pressure 30 times the centre of the Earth. The aim is to create the conditions required for fusion.

The ‘Big Gun’ complements First Light’s electromagnetic launch device ‘Machine 3’, allowing the team to explore a different parameter space by launching larger but “slower” projectiles. The new gun is housed in a specifically constructed 10mm steel clad facility called ‘The Citadel’.

This maiden fusion campaign using the Big Gun will consist of 21 separate shots and is expected to conclude in late July. This campaign is an integral part of First Light’s effort to demonstrate fusion using their unique approach to inertial confinement fusion, which aims to create the extreme temperatures and pressures required for fusion by compressing the fuel inside a target using a projectile travelling at massive speed.

First Light’s approach to fusion, which is safe, clean, and virtually limitless, has the potential to transform the world’s energy system. Unlike existing nuclear, there is no long-lived waste, no meltdown risk, and raw materials can be found in abundance. Unlike many other fusion approaches, First Light’s power plant can be realised with existing technology and materials.

Dr Nick Hawker, CEO of First Light Fusion, said:

“This is a significant scientific milestone for First Light Fusion, as we begin our maiden fusion campaign using our new Big Gun. We are privileged to welcome the UK Science Minister Amanda Solloway MP to officially launch this campaign which will bring us closer to our target of delivering fusion using our unique technology. Our target design, which is the core element of our IP, has advanced significantly over the last 12 months. We are now able to amplify impact speeds by over 11 times in the space of just a few millimetres, breaking our previous records. This is key to creating the extraordinary pressure and temperature necessary for fusion.”

[hashertu] 17/6/2021 20:27

Another small step.

hxxps://firstlightfusion.com/media-archive/uk-science-minister-amanda-solloway-mp-launch-first-light-fusions-maiden-big-gun-fusion-campaign/

[bamboo2] 17/6/2021 14:43

Re FLF, It's worth remembering that if the experiments are a success, then, as is the case with a growing majority of the portfolio, the route to commercialisation would be one of licensing, rather than attempting to 'go it alone'. Many of the recent deals have seen the inclusion of milestone payments, and I would guess that a similar approach would be used here.

=================================

I have noticed both at the last AGM webinar and in emails, management have recently become more engaged with retail investors.

[wba1] 17/6/2021 12:43

p1nkfish. I have no problem including a few real blue sky long shots in the portfolio. You only need one to come off to transform value. But FLF is definitely in that territory. Current best projections for commercial fusion power are 2040s at best. The issue has never been about reactions (controlled fusion reactions have been around for many years). The obstacles are engineering and scale gain(power out in excess of power in). These are being overcome but remain some way off. But a clear step change in a key aspect of development could trigger your bubble.

Pierre; I agree with you and am only surprised at the current level of discount now that the Woodford mess is out of the way. I agree with bamboo about a 140p fair value excluding a good Oxford float (in excess of 2.5bn valuation)and without factoring in substantial gains from the likes of Artios. But I recall getting into 3i about 8/9 years ago when it had a silly discount - but selling out too soon, albeit for a healthy gain.

[p1nkfish] 17/6/2021 11:40

Discount is no surprise to me.

NAS has been a stellar performer for the patient for years under one of the best managers on the planet and has been at -30%.

First Light could surprise sooner then expected. Narrative matters as does right place right time. Bezos backed fusion co starting work at Culham no surprise and look for reactions 2025. The is near term and interest will build prior - if the tech works. World changing potential.

[pierre oreilly] 17/6/2021 11:24

wba, in my view, the shareprice will correct when nano floats and ipo adds several more tens of millions to both its assets and its cash (i assume it will realise a chunk of cash at that time, and also hold plenty of shares to sell some months or weeks after the float).

[wba1] 17/6/2021 11:13

First Light Fusion is a blue sky play. It is playing in an arena with a 20 year timetable to commercialisation. If it comes off that is welcome but my horizon is 10 years (given my age). The likes of Oxford Nanopore, Garrison and Featurespace, with material existing revenue in already commercialised space, and Artios with major partnerships with blue chips appeal more to me. What is surprising me is that the share price is currently circa 20% below a conservative fair value (I agree with bamboo2 on this) and more if the Oxford float goes well.

[p1nkfish] 17/6/2021 10:57

First Fusion - watch that one.