Iog Share Discussion Threads

[9naz] 27/1/2023 11:40

They take the price down a little bit, panic people into selling , and then guess what , NT to buy again, this will keep going up ,don’t fall for MM games, imo.

[bountyhunter] 27/1/2023 11:10

It's just a storm in a teacup ;)

[farrugia] 27/1/2023 11:01

ashkv looks like a short seller playing with fire.

[firestorm911] 27/1/2023 10:44

Regards,
F911
RMC

[9naz] 27/1/2023 10:43

Agree, tick tock , a couple of buys and back to NT yet again, and can still sell big Amounts above the bid, could explode soon.

[firestorm911] 27/1/2023 10:39

The RM Crew will be relentless here. We are buying all the way to 15p.

It's pumping time, the leader of the RMC warned you.


Regards,
F911
RMC

[wisteria2] 27/1/2023 10:32

Naz, yes looking like it could burst upwards anytime.

[wisteria2] 27/1/2023 10:28

ashkv... how long have you not been a share holder?

[9naz] 27/1/2023 10:26

NT TO BUY EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS.Can sell well above the bid , this has been going on for at least 35-40 mins now. MMs want shares , looks like the Lombard have stopped selling,,after the 23 million volumes yesterday they can’t have much left, selling pressure stops and this goes into the teens.imo

[ashkv] 27/1/2023 10:21

IOG currently trading at EV/Flowing barrel 2x that of HBR!!

HBR Cursory Overview ->
Share Price : 309.0p
Brent : $86.50
UK Natural Gas: 139p
Shares Outstanding : 847,168,796
GBPUSD Exch Rate : 1.23
Market Cap GBP : £2,617,751,580
Market Cap USD : $3,219,834,443
Net Debt (2023 Jan Update): $800,000,000
Enterprise Value USD (EV) : $4,019,834,443
HBR Mid:Point Production Guidance 185k-200k for 2023 (Bpd) : 192,500
HBR 2022 Average Production (Bpd) : 208,000
EV/Barrel:USD Mid 2023 Guidance : $20,882
EV/Barrel 2022 Average Production: $18,355
(Decommissioning costs : HALF YEAR 2022 Results) : $5,092,000,000
(Decommissioning Costs : Discounted at 10% & After Tax) : $2,000,000,000
EV And After Tax Discounted Decom Exp / Barrel : $47,334
Dividend USD 200mn per annum - Dividend Yield: 6.21%
Net Payout Yield (NPY = Div(Y) + Buybacks(Y) + Tender(N) : 18.63%

[ashkv] 27/1/2023 10:21

IOG Cursory overview ->

Brent: $86.50
British Gas Prices (Next Month): £139
SP: 8.4
Shares Outstanding: 523,855,758
GBPUSD: 1.23
EURGBP: 0.8828
EURUSD: 1.09
MarketCap GBP: £44,003,884
MarketCap USD: $54,124,777
Cash - GBP (Jan 2023 Corporate Update RNS): £32,400,000
Cash - USD (Jan 2023 Corporate Update RNS) $39,852,000
Debt (GBP): £97,580,000
Debt (USD): $120,023,400
Net Debt (GBP) Per Jan 2023 Corporate Update: £65,180,000
Net Debt (USD) Per Jan 2023 Corporate Update: $80,171,400
Enterprise Value (Jan 2023 Corporate Update RNS): $151,704,777
2022 Actual Average Production: 5,206
2023 Production To Date (25 Jan 23 RNS): 3,515
Guidance for 2023: ???
Enterprise Value/Barrel 2022 Actual Average Production: $29,140
Enterprise Value/Barrel Current Production (23 Jan 23 RNS) : $43,159
Enterprise Value/Barrel Mid-Point 2023 Guidance: #VALUE!
Decommissioning Expenses (GBP): £16,600,000

IOG LIABILITIES
− €100m Senior Secured Bond: £88,280,000 [MATURITY SEPTEMBER 2024]
− LOG Subordinated Convertible Loan: £9,300,000
− Decommissioning provision: £16.6m

[ashkv] 27/1/2023 10:19

Doesn't come across as convincing - 40p - "The price may never hit those heights again" Need Southwark... some gas... all up in the air... a pure gamble at 8p plus - worth a punt at 5p...


"It’s important to put things in perspective. A2 is producing gas – not just water. The company seems to have the funds necessary to give it a good opportunity to tide it through its present difficulties. And Saturn Banks doesn’t need to a thumping success to allow IOG to explore at least some of its other assets. If the company can weather this storm, existing investors prepared to keep the faith – or those prepared to take a speculative stake now – may reap rich rewards. It now seems a long time ago, but it’s less than a year since IOG’s stock was riding above 40p. The price may never hit those heights again. But with adroit operations – and a bit of luck – over the next few weeks, 2023 could still be the ‘high-impact year’ IOG was looking forward to not so long ago."

bountyhunter
27 Jan '23 - 09:12 - 3361 of 3365
0 4 0

[ashkv] 27/1/2023 10:16

Unless Saturn Banks produces significant gas - which is not likely at present given initial stimulation results. IOG will need to further dilute or convert debt into equity when the bond comes due in 2024.

Please note for 2022 per below Corporate Update RNS from a few days prior - 2022 Average price was 203.5 p/therm whereas at present prices is 139.5 p/therm and IOG production approximately 40% below 2022 average. In 2022 with higher production and gas prices IOG only managed revenue of £79.6 million - this when liabilities of close to GBP 100mn in mature in 2024!!! Do the math.

Below is Excerpted from 25 Jan 2023 IOG Corporate Update RNS - Link for full RNS

Rupert Newall, CEO of IOG, commented:

"At the Southwark A2 well we have now taken the production logging data and are preparing to isolate three of the six stimulated zones. Two of the three exposed gas zones will then be re-perforated with a view to improving productivity and the well will then be re-tested. The learnings from A2 are being assimilated into the A1 stimulation programme.

Blythe facilities performance is increasingly stable, with no unplanned downtime year to date and production in the 16-21 mmscf/d range, limited currently by liquids handling at the Perenco Bacton terminal.

The Blythe H2 well is an important part of our plans to maximise production. In a success case, it would enable higher gas rates without associated water production, reducing onshore liquids constraints.

Gross production in 2022, our first year as a producer, averaged 27.4 mmscf/d from First Gas in March, with total IOG revenue of £79.6 million and cash opex of 13.9 p/therm. We ended the year with £32.4 million in cash, of which £5.7 million is restricted.

In the UK 33rd Licensing Round, we have been very active, but disciplined and focused, applying with our partner CalEnergy for nine blocks in five licences across the Saturn Banks catchment area. All potential licences contain gas discoveries that, if awarded, would add value to each of our gas hubs."

Current and Planned Operations

Southwark
- At the A2 well, following analysis of the production logging tool data, the plan for the coming weeks is to isolate three of the six stimulated zones, add further perforations to two other zones and then re-test the well
- The A1 well is to be located in the western part of the reservoir, where the proximity of its reservoir entry point to the Southwark discovery well (49/21-8A) may reduce uncertainties
- A2 data is being used to inform the updated A1 programme, which includes hydraulic stimulation of five zones

Blythe & Elgood
- The Blythe H1 well is currently producing gas in the 16-21 mmscf/d range, constrained by water disposal and liquids let down cycles onshore at Bacton
o No unplanned downtime at Blythe year to date indicates improving platform reliability
o Remote platform restart capabilities are now fully established
- The planned Blythe H2 well is intended to increase production rates and limit water production from the reservoir, which would alleviate onshore water handling requirements
o Budgeted cost of £13 million net to IOG, before any tax shelter
- Elgood currently remains shut in, with remaining recoverable volumes to be produced cyclically once pipeline dewatering has reduced back pressure

2022 Saturn Banks Operational Overview
- Gross gas production from First Gas in March to year end averaged 27.4 mmscf/d (21.8 mmscf/d for 2H 2022) at combined uptime of 58.6% (including planned shutdowns)
- Average realised gas price over this period was 203.5 p/therm, including short-term price fixes
o 319 p/therm price fix for 30,000 therms/day in place for January 2023
- Gross condensate sales averaged 1067.9 MT/month at $805.3/MT from First Gas to year end
- Total Reportable Incident Rate (TRIR*) of 3.6 per 200,000 manhours
o Cumulative manhours reached 2 million by end of 2022
- 2022 Scope 1 and 2 emissions intensity estimated at 0.8 kgCO₂e/boe

[tidy 2] 27/1/2023 09:27

Production continues outside of Southwark If they sort Southwark which is likely then IOG are even more undervaluedGift.

[ashkv] 27/1/2023 09:03

How are IOG going to fund the further licenses? When as finances stand IOG will struggle to pay-off/re-finance debt coming due in 2024...

Finance 101 --> Enterprise Value = Market Cap + Deb - Cash (Is how to value a firm)

IOG Enterprise Value at present is approx $151,704,777

[tidy 2] 27/1/2023 08:55

A further 9 blocks across 5 licenses

[tidy 2] 27/1/2023 08:52

OPEX only 13.9p therm. Cash in bank over 30m. Current cap 39m Production continues 16-21 scuffs per day. Southwark will be sorted. 9 more licenses with discoveries in place close to Saturn banks are now likely in the bag

[ashkv] 27/1/2023 08:26

IOG currently trading at EV/Flowing barrel 2x that of HBR!!

HBR Cursory Overview ->
Share Price : 309.0p
Brent : $86.50
UK Natural Gas: 139p
Shares Outstanding : 847,168,796
GBPUSD Exch Rate : 1.23
Market Cap GBP : £2,617,751,580
Market Cap USD : $3,219,834,443
Net Debt (2023 Jan Update): $800,000,000
Enterprise Value USD (EV) : $4,019,834,443
HBR Mid:Point Production Guidance 185k-200k for 2023 (Bpd) : 192,500
HBR 2022 Average Production (Bpd) : 208,000
EV/Barrel:USD Mid 2023 Guidance : $20,882
EV/Barrel 2022 Average Production: $18,355
(Decommissioning costs : HALF YEAR 2022 Results) : $5,092,000,000
(Decommissioning Costs : Discounted at 10% & After Tax) : $2,000,000,000
EV And After Tax Discounted Decom Exp / Barrel : $47,334
Dividend USD 200mn per annum - Dividend Yield: 6.21%
Net Payout Yield (NPY = Div(Y) + Buybacks(Y) + Tender(N) : 18.63%

[ashkv] 27/1/2023 08:26

From yesterday - IOG Cursory overview ->

Brent: $86.50
British Gas Prices (Next Month): £139
SP: 8.4
Shares Outstanding: 523,855,758
GBPUSD: 1.23
EURGBP: 0.8828
EURUSD: 1.09
MarketCap GBP: £44,003,884
MarketCap USD: $54,124,777
Cash - GBP (Jan 2023 Corporate Update RNS): £32,400,000
Cash - USD (Jan 2023 Corporate Update RNS) $39,852,000
Debt (GBP): £97,580,000
Debt (USD): $120,023,400
Net Debt (GBP) Per Jan 2023 Corporate Update: £65,180,000
Net Debt (USD) Per Jan 2023 Corporate Update: $80,171,400
Enterprise Value (Jan 2023 Corporate Update RNS): $151,704,777
2022 Actual Average Production: 5,206
2023 Production To Date (25 Jan 23 RNS): 3,515
Guidance for 2023: ???
Enterprise Value/Barrel 2022 Actual Average Production: $29,140
Enterprise Value/Barrel Current Production (23 Jan 23 RNS) : $43,159
Enterprise Value/Barrel Mid-Point 2023 Guidance: #VALUE!
Decommissioning Expenses (GBP): £16,600,000

IOG LIABILITIES
− €100m Senior Secured Bond: £88,280,000 [MATURITY SEPTEMBER 2024]
− LOG Subordinated Convertible Loan: £9,300,000
− Decommissioning provision: £16.6m

[tidy 2] 27/1/2023 08:21

Current cash in the bank covers the current market cap so nothing is priced in and production continues besides Southwark. Fully funded for the year with back to back activity. Southwark will be sorted this is on track. Besides Southwark IOG is extremely undervalued no production is priced in. Buy.

[ashkv] 27/1/2023 08:11

Unless Saturn Banks produces significant gas - which is not likely at present given initial stimulation results. IOG will need to further dilute or convert debt into equity when the bond comes due in 2024.

Please note for 2022 per below Corporate Update RNS from a few days prior - 2022 Average price was 203.5 p/therm whereas at present prices is 139.5 p/therm and IOG production approximately 40% below 2022 average. In 2022 with higher production and gas prices IOG only managed revenue of £79.6 million - this when liabilities of close to GBP 100mn in mature in 2024!!! Do the math.

Below is Excerpted from 25 Jan 2023 IOG Corporate Update RNS - Link for full RNS

Rupert Newall, CEO of IOG, commented:

"At the Southwark A2 well we have now taken the production logging data and are preparing to isolate three of the six stimulated zones. Two of the three exposed gas zones will then be re-perforated with a view to improving productivity and the well will then be re-tested. The learnings from A2 are being assimilated into the A1 stimulation programme.

Blythe facilities performance is increasingly stable, with no unplanned downtime year to date and production in the 16-21 mmscf/d range, limited currently by liquids handling at the Perenco Bacton terminal.

The Blythe H2 well is an important part of our plans to maximise production. In a success case, it would enable higher gas rates without associated water production, reducing onshore liquids constraints.

Gross production in 2022, our first year as a producer, averaged 27.4 mmscf/d from First Gas in March, with total IOG revenue of £79.6 million and cash opex of 13.9 p/therm. We ended the year with £32.4 million in cash, of which £5.7 million is restricted.

In the UK 33rd Licensing Round, we have been very active, but disciplined and focused, applying with our partner CalEnergy for nine blocks in five licences across the Saturn Banks catchment area. All potential licences contain gas discoveries that, if awarded, would add value to each of our gas hubs."

Current and Planned Operations

Southwark
- At the A2 well, following analysis of the production logging tool data, the plan for the coming weeks is to isolate three of the six stimulated zones, add further perforations to two other zones and then re-test the well
- The A1 well is to be located in the western part of the reservoir, where the proximity of its reservoir entry point to the Southwark discovery well (49/21-8A) may reduce uncertainties
- A2 data is being used to inform the updated A1 programme, which includes hydraulic stimulation of five zones

Blythe & Elgood
- The Blythe H1 well is currently producing gas in the 16-21 mmscf/d range, constrained by water disposal and liquids let down cycles onshore at Bacton
o No unplanned downtime at Blythe year to date indicates improving platform reliability
o Remote platform restart capabilities are now fully established
- The planned Blythe H2 well is intended to increase production rates and limit water production from the reservoir, which would alleviate onshore water handling requirements
o Budgeted cost of £13 million net to IOG, before any tax shelter
- Elgood currently remains shut in, with remaining recoverable volumes to be produced cyclically once pipeline dewatering has reduced back pressure

2022 Saturn Banks Operational Overview
- Gross gas production from First Gas in March to year end averaged 27.4 mmscf/d (21.8 mmscf/d for 2H 2022) at combined uptime of 58.6% (including planned shutdowns)
- Average realised gas price over this period was 203.5 p/therm, including short-term price fixes
o 319 p/therm price fix for 30,000 therms/day in place for January 2023
- Gross condensate sales averaged 1067.9 MT/month at $805.3/MT from First Gas to year end
- Total Reportable Incident Rate (TRIR*) of 3.6 per 200,000 manhours
o Cumulative manhours reached 2 million by end of 2022
- 2022 Scope 1 and 2 emissions intensity estimated at 0.8 kgCO₂e/boe