Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[owenga] 16/4/2024 18:10

More to the point, we've now been given a forecast ebitda for 2024, and we still don't have an up to date estimate for 2023. I thought we were expecting about 15m ebitda. So 2024 estimate looks terrible given we have a new plant on line in the next few months.

[owenga] 16/4/2024 17:42

Very disappointing ebidta forecast for year. Let's hope they are being very conservative with that number. And so bloody slow building new plants, basically one every 18 months, and they announce the extra royalty costs after share price has already dropped 50% from lack of any news. This was 38p 12 months ago. As every new plant comes on line we seem to get about a 50 tonne increase per year. It's never anywhere near 100-150 as expected. It's hard to keep the faith here!

[beeezzz] 16/4/2024 17:01

tack - Yep, otherwise there is nothing in this company for PI's, its not creating enough growth to attract new investors.

[tackems] 16/4/2024 16:07

Hopefully Beeezzz but would prefer a maiden dividend and they could still have reserves for growth.

[beeezzz] 16/4/2024 14:43

Sellers return, no change steady as we go, when buyback or dividend..

[jwoolley] 16/4/2024 09:19

Another lack luster update that will no doubt result in further lack luster share price action, along with the lack of new investors or current investors buying in my opinion.

I really feel the management needs to change. Lance needs to go and Tom needs to be moved to the side and some fresh energetic blood needs bringing in.

[beercapafn] 16/4/2024 09:12

Now more buys than sells - and still off 12%. don't understand that. !

[beercapafn] 16/4/2024 08:43

Obscene spread. 3p, 15%.

[chillpill] 16/4/2024 08:42

On the price SQM(the price setters) have said the price will remain at these levels all year.

With Cosayach losing 2500t pa production in coming months and SQM plant opening, to effectively replace this production down the road, delayed in the courts it feels as if there is more upside to iodine price than downside right now.

[naphar] 16/4/2024 08:26

That’s a very good and fair point on the royalties vs. brine supply Severn.

If agreements are due for renewal, they need to pay market rate, not really any avoiding that and securing the brine is most important. My frustration was more that it’s a forecastable event, so I would have thought Canacord would have had it in their estimates given they are guided (or so I thought) by the company.

Anyway, these must be the brine agreements that were on a fixed $ royalty (of some sort, per unit I would guess). Hopefully now they are on a percentage of revenue type agreement, I would hate a fixed $ per unit royalty at these iodine price levels, just in case they were to come crashing down again at some point.

[severnof9] 16/4/2024 08:16

I don't see the increased royalty rate being too bad a trade off for continued brine supply to existing plants. The cost of relocating those plants would be considerably higher especially when downtime is included. In addition if the oil price drops those wells supplying brine are less likely to be shut in provided they are producing oil at a reasonable rate.

Longer term I don't see the iodine price falling substantially given constrained supply and environmental concerns in Chile. That should mean the existing plants will continue to generate profits whilst the longer term plans for new plant rollout will provide greater production of iodine for each well sited successor plant. I suspect that our long term price per kilo production cost will drop even with increased brine royalties if the new plants produce as expected.

I would like to see some longer term plans for owning a high ppm brine supply well that we can operate ourselves.

I see the iodine sales expansion as a positive as this will hopefully absorb the increased iodine production as more plants are constructed.

[chillpill] 16/4/2024 08:11

I’m not sure where they get quite a lot of their figures from tbh. I preferred the finnCap research. Was easier to understand.

[naphar] 16/4/2024 08:09

Yes there does seem to be upside chill.
I don’t know where the $300k ebitda per $1 increase comes from. I would have thought it would all drop to the bottom line, except perhaps for some additional royalty cost of about 10-15% (unless I am being fact), so with expected iodine sales of 634mt, I would think ebitda could be understated by $2.7m if prices remain stable and they sell per expectations.

[barrywhit] 16/4/2024 08:04

yesterdays traders out already...LOL

[beercapafn] 16/4/2024 08:04

well someone is disappointed. !

[chillpill] 16/4/2024 07:49

Frustrating on the brines. Canaccord have scaled back the figures in accordance with the guidance.

As they say those figures are based on $60 iodine price when the current price is $65. They estimate you can add $300k in EBITDA for every $1 move so that figure should prove conservative.

Good that IO#10 is another 100-150t plant. Hopefully IO#11 will be operational by this time next year.

[naphar] 16/4/2024 07:47

I think that explains the lack of director buys this year, they will have been in a closed period, if nothing else. I suspect they will now remain in a closed period until post results announcement.

[naphar] 16/4/2024 07:42

So on the operational side all seems to be going to plan, IO10 on track, volumes on track, IO11 negotiations at advanced stage (but heard that before on previous plants), iodine price holding.
Just the small elephant in the room of a profit warning for 2024 due to updated brine supply agreements, causing a target price reduction from 40p to 35p.
What baffles me is why Canacord hadn’t been factoring in to forecasts such a change to brine supply agreements. Surely they would have known? I certainly don’t think this would have been a surprise to Iofina. Maybe they didn’t want to tip off brine partners to the topic but I also expect they would have been well aware anyway.

[this_is_me] 16/4/2024 07:19

"once operating, IO#10 is expected to produce 100-150MT of crystalline iodine per annum."
That is very approximately around a 20% increase in revenue.

[chillpill] 15/4/2024 19:33

The only thing that looks to be “up” is that the seller has finished. The shares traded of 983k is similar to other days recently.

We know there will almost certainly be a production update this week and also the data available to us- temperature, well volumes and iodine price suggests a very solid quarter.

[beercapafn] 15/4/2024 14:21

The 13 - 123 - 1230 buyer is having a real push this afternoon if you follow the moment-to-moment real-time share buys. Go - go - it is working.

[beercapafn] 15/4/2024 13:53

Looks like somethings " up "

[barrywhit] 15/4/2024 11:39

Large buy at 23p @ 10.11....225k

[chillpill] 15/4/2024 10:07

Fingers crossed the seller of the last few weeks is done.