Interserve Share Discussion Threads

[billtucker] 12/12/2018 14:21

Tomboyd- COnstruction is in a tight mess at the moment, and I’ve heard they are looking to recapitalise that part of the business. Not sure what that means for shareholders though, as I can see it both as a negative and positive.

[billtucker] 12/12/2018 14:18

Cc- thanks I’ve been watching this for a few days and could have started to recover some of my money back had I invested. Got 70k in here which I need to recover, so may cash out at some point unless we get a good deal from the restructuring. Hoping FCA will announce some compo.

[cc2014] 12/12/2018 13:52

Hi Bill, I'll answer the day-trading question as I've spend years day-trading on a professional basis.

Successful day-traders aren't interested in IRV. The market cap. is too low, the spread too wide and the liquidity too low. You are trying to cover a 0.5p spread before trading costs, commission. If you want to deal in any size the spread goes up.

You will find people popping up on these fast moving risky plays over and over. They never last though, do they? They may get the first trade right, they may get the second and third right but the spread is so wide one bade trade wipes out the first three. The odds simply don't stack up.

All the professional day-traders are on very liquid FTSE100 companies where the spread is tiny, commissions are low and liquidity is available. Or FX or futures.


PS - why don't you think there won't be any new information before Feb or March. The press are all over this and won't let it rest. IRV's cash flow looks dire on the construction side this month. The 2 week Christmas shutdown doesn't happen in the same way it used to 20 years ago but there's still an impact. All that holiday pay to be paid out (on support services too) with no associated income. The crunch will come in January.

[tomboyb] 12/12/2018 13:50

What they have done is moved news forward to 2019 -

So perhaps a boost to share price -

It may well be a case of too big to fail -

[cc2014] 12/12/2018 13:40

I have a question. A serious question.

Who is buying here? It seems to be agreed shareholders are going to get all but wiped out.

A quick look at the accounts gives:

Gross debt at June £807m vs borrowing limit of £834m
Trade creditors £736m

If only a small proportion of the supply chain start demanding earlier payment (which is happening) IRV simply run out of money.

I don't understand, writing off some of the debt may ease the interest burden but even if £500m is written off, IRV is going to need more cash to keep going.



One lender looks at another across the table "so, what we're saying is not only have we got to swap £500m of debt for equity, we've also got to give them £200m cash to provide confidence to the supply chain. Remind me wasn't the £200m we put in just 7 months ago supposed to do that already."

The other lender looks at the first one "Indeed and they were supposed to get all these EfW handed over in return and now the Council is telling the government they have no more knowledge on the reasons for the delay than is in the public domain, which is interesting as some of the council meetings are held in closed session to keep things out of the public domain. So, presumably they just eat cake and don't know what's going on any more than the shareholders." When is it they are getting these EfW commissioned again?"

The other lender says "according to emails we've seen from IRV before the end of the year, according to information from the Council given to the Government they seem to be saying early next year"

"Right then, so in summary, it's exactly the same as in April, IRV need about £200m to keep going and in return they will hand over EfW, we will get repaid the £200m with lots of interest"

The other lender looks over:
"How do I know they won't want another £200m in Sept 2019?" as by then surely Viridor will have launched their court case for £72m plus interest. Oh yes and then there's the FCA claim.

Finally:
"I know what we'll do, we'll get some new investors who will put in the £200m. That's what we usually do. We'll charge them a nice fat fee."


Seriously, why is the price 12.5p and not 3-5p? Even if you don't agree with the £200m, someone is going to have to put in £100m to stabilise things.

[eodfire] 12/12/2018 13:38

Is fenners a day trader?? Doubt it, as this would be way too risky. Asking for advice with an accountancy matter, maybe.

[billtucker] 12/12/2018 13:30

Fenners- what’s your view on day trading this for now to recover some losses? Given we will not receive any new info until Feb/March, and the share has a strong support level at the moment. Would appreciate your view.

[fenners66] 12/12/2018 13:20

patience a virtue
12 Dec '18 - 12:03 - 11400 of 11402


"If you had used the proceeds you sold at 72p to buy back 10 times number of shares at 7p you would have made your 44K back."


And you could just as easily said the same about going to a casino and putting it all on red or black

[boffster] 12/12/2018 12:06

CC, I have to agree that, even in a best case scenario, paying dividends to shareholders anytime soon is a pretty comical suggestion!

[tomboyb] 12/12/2018 12:06

Well it is climbing -

Lets see where this goes -

No news until next year so anything is possible -

Looks to me it may have well done to boost share price -

[patience a virtue] 12/12/2018 12:03

Losses, IRV is not Carillion.
If you had used the proceeds you sold at 72p to buy back 10 times number of shares at 7p you would have made your 44K back.

[nudog69] 12/12/2018 12:03

15p tomorrow imo ✌️313;🚀㉀0;👍👍👍🚀🚀🚀8640;🚀Ԇ40;🚀🚀;🚀🚀🚀🚀
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[losses] 12/12/2018 11:55

Ghost of Carillion hangs over housing contracts for UK asylum seekersHttps://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/ghost-carillion-hangs-over-housing-114947418.html

[nudog69] 12/12/2018 11:52

🔥😱ahhhhhhh Burnt scum! ✌️313;✌️

[nudog69] 12/12/2018 11:47

Thongs lol

[nudog69] 12/12/2018 11:19

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28561;

[cc2014] 12/12/2018 11:16

I'm beginning to see serious ramping going on here and on lse.

Best one I've seen so far it this in order to get the D4E approved the bondholders will have to give the current equity holders free shares.

[boffster] 12/12/2018 11:03

Probably less than that patience as I bet they could get some of the debt at sub-par.

[patience a virtue] 12/12/2018 10:59

Simple question: what is the value of the company if no debt? currently the company is valued at 670m (650m debt + 20m Market Cap). My answer: much more than 700m.
A cash rich foreign company could just buy IRV for less than 700m and pay off the debt and enjoy good profit in the future.
Fundamentally IRV can recover without the debt burden (+ EFW issues sorted) and that is why the debt holders are happy to convert the debt into equity.

[nudog69] 12/12/2018 09:07

🔥🚀🚀🚀8640;🚀Ԇ40;🚀🚀;🚀🚀🚀🚀
28640;✌️;🤡

[cc2014] 12/12/2018 08:52

In its half-year results published in August, Interserve had said it expected the scheme would be handed over by the end of September.

But in her reply on 28 November, Brailsford told the Cabinet Office that although the facility has processed some waste, “construction activity at the site remains high” with “full commissioning due to commence in the new year”.

She added the council has “no further information regarding the cause of the delays other than the information which Interserve has put into the public domain”.


Are Derby Council seriously saying they have no information other than that IRV put in the public domain about the cause of delays??? and full commissioning doesn't start to next year.

I advise read it yourself several times and draw your own conclusions as I'm struggling to understand/believe what I'm reading.

[fenners66] 12/12/2018 08:29

Try the RBS thread