Interserve Share Discussion Threads

[jeffian] 30/10/2018 15:31

eodfire is absolutely right. Do not look to anonymous avatars on a free bulletin board for financial advice! Having said that, I will offer a comment -

"I invested a considerable sum and need what’s left to start and invest in a new business
Do I re invest what’s left"

You have answered your own question really. You need the money for something else within a relatively short time frame so it would not seem sensible to chuck it into the market just when the macroeconomics - Brexit, China, Trump, Italy et al - suggest the potential for extreme volatility in the short to medium term, regardless of company-specific issues. You say you already have "a considerable sum" invested in IRV, so you are already placed to benefit from any recovery (investment rule: always look at the price today and base decision on that, not the price you paid). Doubling up to 'recoup your losses' is a strategy many a gambler has lived to regret.

[aendjo] 30/10/2018 15:11

It’s taken a long time indeed, and uncertainty persists.

[fenners66] 30/10/2018 14:47

eodfire - good answer.

Problem also is though jofo may have to pay for "impartial professional advice" and they are likely to know less than we do on here...

If you are working to a time scale it seems to be a gamble to put more in expecting a result before you have to pull it out again , adds another hurdle.

These may go up, they may go down , but adding in a time limit adds another dimension, it could take a long time before they go anywhere , after all its taken a long time already.....

[eodfire] 30/10/2018 14:32

With respect jofo, I wouldn't look to people on a bb for financial advice. If you need advice I would suggest that you seek impartial professional advice. I'm holding here so would say that you should consider averaging down as I still believe the company will recover. Skyblue on the the other has a negative view.... He/she maybe short on the stock and wants to see the company fail? Lots of different agendas you see... Good luck with your decision.

[cfc1] 30/10/2018 14:24

and down we go again but again more buyers than sellers?!?!

[skyblue5] 30/10/2018 13:10

As ex employee I wouldn't trust anything with this management. They look after themselves and forget they have to deliver at the coalface. Easier returns out there. Ratesetter and student accommodation investment companies.

[jofo70] 30/10/2018 12:31

Hi All
I’m really getting worried as I invested a considerable sum and need what’s left to start and invest in a new business
Do I re invest what’s left or stick in there till new year ?

[jeffian] 28/10/2018 14:06

That's harsh (the 'track record' comment not the payoff!). Ringrose set very clear and challenging growth targets (to double eps every 5 years) and made a pretty good fist of it for many years before the EfW fiasco tripped him up. They say that every good CEO is just one that got out at the right time!

[pundit1] 28/10/2018 13:58

Aendjo I also should have said in response to your last post that imo it is wrong to suggest Ringrose and Haywood we’re booted out. My thoughts are the Board generously paid em off! Disgraceful given their track record. Any news anybody on the FCA investigation?

[pundit1] 27/10/2018 06:25

But it’s the present that needs dealing with and some movement. There was after all a Board of Directors to oversee and provide governance and help avoid such bad judgement and if as you say debt was allowed to grow well some individuals (TH included) will hope the vineyard also grows as proficiently in the future. Let’s see some asset disposal and action to reduce debt and increase profitability. Have a great weekend all and hope for better things next week.

[aendjo] 26/10/2018 20:20

In regards to the main challenges the company is facing, fingers were pointed (and boots followed) towards Mr Ringrose for the overenthusiastic engagement with EfW projects and Mr Haywood for allowing debt to grow out of control.

Have a great weekend fellow posters. I’m feeling upbeat.

[fenners66] 26/10/2018 19:07

aendjo - so you believe it is right for a business of this size not to have a sales director?

I have often had little enough respect for sales in the past - hence the comment about "giving away department" - but that makes it even more imperative that they have a strong leader and are kept in line.

Your assertion that there is a large order book so sales are not a problem for someone invested here is bordering on the complacent.

Not only is the company expected to replenish that order book - but there is a lot more to sales especially in essentially a service business than just selling new business.

The sales team is expected to go and smooth over the problems that inevitably arise again without giving too much away.

As I said someone needs to be representing them at board level - so the accountants have someone to point the finger at - every business needs someone to kick !

[pundit1] 26/10/2018 18:10

Aendjo, £50m on completion is all well and good but earlier you informed us of the 3 month extension at Derby to allow handover subject to compensation being paid to the Council. The cost of this will surely impact on any payments expected and that's if all goes well!

[aendjo] 26/10/2018 17:28

Plants need to be running at 90% capacity / efficiency for a number of weeks before handover.

I’m in the dark as to whether this is being achieved - Pennon, Vølund and IRV seem to be confident they will be able to handover by the end of the year.

This should be met by significant payments (for Derby alone, RRS would be due 50m on completion - minus an unknown penalty for delay).

[pundit1] 26/10/2018 17:12

Aendjo, thanks for that. Looks like emission criteria, overall efficiency, smell and noise issues may have been met then on some projects? Good news perhaps and if so this should allow the BoD to concentrate on raising cash to pay down debt (selling assets that have a value like the international businesses or RMD and not the small amount previously raised for the access business.Does somebody get a bonus for this? Let's not forget it has been stated that £20m has to be paid at end of 2018.

[aendjo] 26/10/2018 16:17

Hi Pundit.

The most authoritative updates are from Pennon, Viridor and Interserve (August results).

I have been trying to get a sense of progress on various EfW plants IRV is still involved with by looking for articles, plants newsletters and social media - this is the summary.

Derby - generating but ongoing controversy - final handover not initiated (as of end of September 2018).

Margam - is in the final stages of commissioning and is generating renewable electricity via the Grid for homes and businesses.

Dunbar - generating. Final stages of commissioning.

Rotherham - the Templeborough Biomass Power Plant is now generating clean, green electricity.

Peterborough - completed and handed over back in 2016.

[pundit1] 26/10/2018 15:44

And if poor performance leads to financial penalties and deductions, or even worse service failure points lead to termination, it's disastrous. FM and clients outsourcing is about efficiencies, win win, and service delivery innovation and customer first. Walk the talk!

[skyblue5] 26/10/2018 15:13

I can tell you the issues. They have lost support of front line staff. This will lead to losing current contracts as increasingly difficult to manage through suppliers putting credit accounts on stop. Also SMT,s sittng on PO's making it harder to deliver services. Eventually if you don't deliver a level of service promised the contract is terminated as seen time and time again. Too many accountants trying to run a service industry.

[aendjo] 26/10/2018 13:07

I would agree with Pundit and Jeffian’s comments.

Financially the main issue is debt. Operationally the main issue is gasification technology and its ability to deliver on its promises.

I respectfully disagree with the content and tone of cfc and Fenner’s comments. Among the many problems the company might have - sales does not seem to be a priority given the scale of consolidated revenues. Posters here may be under appreciating Mr Pollard’s experience in EfW (you can google that).

Whilst I share your frustration with the current state of affairs and having myself raised an eyebrow at the scale of rewards for BOD at a time of cuts and redundancies, I have a lot of respect for the current BOD. This is not an easy task.

[cfc1] 26/10/2018 12:36

funny how this share drops like a stone on 30k share sales and when that reverses 30k buys nothing happens to reverse the drop!

[pundit1] 26/10/2018 12:21

It's not just Derby EFW Rotherham due handover Q3, Margram and Dunbar both Q4. Have we heard any news on progress? Regards future order book this will be on same margin subject to RPI or CPI and it doesn't necessarily follow with FFG that margins will improve, as no doubt knowledge, skill and expertise has been diluted. What's needed is significant new work at higher margin, simple, but there seems little progress. Getting the price and risk right is more important than a sales director and turnover. Didn't the Board say in the 2017 Annual report that the market was £88 billion? In this case the market share of IRV is very small. Others are selling businesses such as Pest control and generating £40m in doing so and then investing in security. Ah a plan! What we need is news....and a plan!

[cfc1] 26/10/2018 11:52

Jeffian not arguing that. I justsense all they are doing is cost cutting and steamlining - cant see anything else. Not sure about the order book and deal wins given this so called huge pipeline! Where are the wins?

[fenners66] 26/10/2018 11:34

jeffian - not looking in the wrong direction we already have said that is the major point - but we can also look at other issues....

[jeffian] 26/10/2018 11:05

I still think you guys are looking in the wrong direction. Sure, they have to go on winning repeat business and looking for forward sales but sales are not the burning issue here at the moment. They have a forward order book of £7.4bn so the revenues for the next 2-3 years are in the bag anyway (barring any parts of the business they have to sell off, of course). The focus of management at this time will be on meeting bank covenants and particularly the repayment profile through to 2021.

[whyyy] 26/10/2018 10:35

They don't have a Marketing director either