Interserve Share Discussion Threads

[cfc1] 05/10/2018 10:26

unbelievable!

[losses] 05/10/2018 08:23

Don't feel so bad now selling out around 72 and losing 44k... but this downward trend is relentless

[obiwoncanary] 05/10/2018 08:20

I still believe aendjo. Just.

[aendjo] 05/10/2018 07:06

Thank you Jeffian. It’s a possibility. I’ve been wrong on other matters before and I’m heavily invested here so there’s a bias, too. I think I’ll be ok though. We shall see - good fun.

[fenners66] 04/10/2018 23:09

The market has had getting on for a year to decide to buy , but it hasn't ....

[jeffian] 04/10/2018 23:01

aendjo,

I think you're in denial. Up until 2021, everything IRV generates goes to the banks and after that the picture is uncertain. What is the short/medium term argument for investing or holding here? I think this will track sideways for years until the outcome - post refinancing and repaying the banks (if they do) - is clearer.

[fangorn2] 04/10/2018 22:33

@Fenners

"factoring in all liabilities including state and public sector pensions, the real national debt is closer to £4.8 trillion"

Wonder if that includes off Balance PFI?

Personally I'd take Nat Debt + PFI as Pensions are a massive ponzi and at the rate we're bringing in all these doctors,nurses,and high salaried migrants we'll be able to keep the music going for at least a bit longer!


"I read recently that they are not providing for student debt - which experience tells us a lot will go bad and be written off !"

It gets written off after 30 years right?(Not sure) and most worthless degrees wont see majority of students earn enough to pay off their debts...so clear majority will get written off!!!

I wonder if that has been included in the £4.8 T

Eh no, In similar fashion to the Off Balance Sheet PFI!!


I concur we are going to need Turkish inflation at this rate !

45% or is it 60% - lost track.

Wont be sufficient I fear.

[sbs] 04/10/2018 21:42

Tend to agree. To lose two would be careless.

[aendjo] 04/10/2018 20:35

@Jeffian - not only political will, but also some stark differences between IRV and Carillion support your view that bankruptcy is not on the horizon.

Carillion had a deficit of 1 billion GBP in their pension pot alone - IRV has a credit on it.

Carillion ran on negative cash for years - gains were simply on paper (Goodwill, primarily). The current management at IRV did the opposite, they wrote off Goodwill - that’s the bulk of recent losses - and they forecast net cash generation of 100m per year. The market values IRV 80m today. I don’t agree at all with your prediction of a flatline. Certainly we won’t see 600p any time soon - but the current valuation has a gigantic margin of safety, in my opinion.

[aendjo] 04/10/2018 20:30

I’ve been going through Derby Council minutes and I couldn’t find much more than this on the 27/9/18 meeting that made the Derby Telegraph news. Maybe someone else out there can do some more digging?

aa.Question from Councillor Shanker to Councillor Smale
Can you confirm when the 14 days Acceptance Testing is taking place at the Incinerator according to the latest Notice received from the plant contractors?
There is currently no agreed date on which the 14 days Acceptance Testing will commence. To date both Local Authorities have not been provided with an adequate 20 Business Days’ notice, stating the plant would be ready to commence Acceptance Tests on any specified date.
As required by the Project Agreement, and until such notice is validly served and meets the requirements of the Independent Certifier, the formal programme for Acceptance Testing cannot commence.

[jeffian] 04/10/2018 19:14

I don't see the risk as "bankruptcy" (if only because I can't see the Govt let this go down after the Carillion debacle) but - and I know I'm repeating myself here - that they're working for the banks now, not you the shareholders, at least until 2021 and probably beyond after a restructuring. I would guess that means the share price staying pretty well where it is for the foreseeable future. Look at the graph above for the past year, the past 6 months in particular and imagine it flatlining til 2021 - then windrushg might understand what a 'zombie' company looks like before he 'LOL's' again.

[mrfixituk] 04/10/2018 18:32

Pitroski F score of 2 and an Altman Z score of 1.46. Very shakey financials and a bankruptcy risk

[cfc1] 04/10/2018 16:48

Short HFs dropped to just under 6% but still every day down.

[cfc1] 04/10/2018 16:46

how on earth can it drop so much on NO volume!?! unbelievable. where is the substantial news to give share holders a 'lift'!!!!

[cfc1] 04/10/2018 16:43

Peel Hunt reisssues buy but at what price !?

[fenners66] 04/10/2018 11:07

oh s*it that jumped up £200bn whilst I was having my tea !


"factoring in all liabilities including state and public sector pensions, the real national debt is closer to £4.8 trillion"

I read recently that they are not providing for student debt - which experience tells us a lot will go bad and be written off !

I wonder if that has been included in the £4.8 T

I concur we are going to need Turkish inflation at this rate !

[aendjo] 04/10/2018 09:50

Current share price 55p.
One year high 120p.
Two year high 300p.
Three year high 600p.
Peel Hunt just re-issued a buy recommendation.
All hedge-funds reducing their short positions.
Illiquid trading, share price movement driven by small volumes with large institutional investors being essentially immobile.
Strong, credible management team in place with clear turnaround plan.
Robust stream of contract wins, lots of redundancies (sad, but necessary) and more disposals to be announced soon (there seems to be a great sense of urgency among posters, but in HY results just two months ago it was explicitly stated that there would be an acceleration on disposals in 2019).
Management clearly told investors debt would peak in first half 2018 at 650m and that it would be sub 450 by June 2020. As recently as August we were told eprogress was according to plan. To even imagine to be able to get close to 450 when you have that sort of financial costs means a phenomenal ability for cash generation - net cash generation of 100m per year. Consider market cap as of today is 80m. I don’t think those are preposterous figures. Hitting a 5% margin on the consolidated 3b revenue would pretty much do it (EBIT 150m per year), with some insurance receipts and disposals helping along the way. Clearly the sooner the better.
Regarding the Sinfin situation - there were campaigns against building the incinerator from the outset (Sinfin and Spondon Against Incineration campaign). Regarding the smell issue: the city council previously confirmed that it was working with the Environment Agency to find a “permanent solution” to the “intermittent problems with odour from the site and apologised for any inconvenience. The main breach here - if I understand correctly - was the delay in construction and processing waste (deadline 30 September). The plant is now operational so I’m not sure if the Council can simply say they don’t want it any longer. All Conservative councillors abstained from the vote and it is the Tory-led cabinet that will make a final decision. There is no legal action yet, although it’s being “considered221;. “Residents subjected to the noise and smells coming from the controversial Sinfin waste plant for more than 12 months are considering a request for compensation because of the ongoing nuisance. Alternatively, if they cannot get individual compensation, it has been suggested that Resource Recovery Solutions (RRS) could be asked to contribute to a general pot of funding that is used to benefit people living in Sinfin and Normanton...

[sbs] 04/10/2018 07:37

We never had austerity, just smaller increases in Government spending.The fact is, voters prefer inflation to wipe out their debts to paying back all their debt. So that is what we will get.And that will help Interserve, provided the government regulations don't ban the workers they need from entering the country.

[fenners66] 03/10/2018 23:27

"Massive public spending is imminent now national debt is under control."

If you are not saying that sarcastically and actually believe that you believe anything !

£1.8 Trn in debt and interest rates set to rise - what part of national debt do you think is under control ?

She said austerity is Coming to an end - not that it has , or really is , she is playing to the gallery ....

[da vinci1] 03/10/2018 22:57

Large correction in share price is due in my opinion too.Decade of Austerity is now over following the 'Financial Crash' 10 years ago says PM Theresa May. Massive public spending is imminent now national debt is under control.This will greatly benefit IRV aided by the collapse of a major competitor (CLLN). May may even pull off a decent Brexit deal if the back-stabbing traitors can start DANCING to her tune!

[losses] 03/10/2018 22:07

What makes you say that?

[aendjo] 03/10/2018 21:48

Big bounce coming, in my opinion.

[cfc1] 03/10/2018 10:01

CC - yep its all about the T&Cs that are agreed to and signed by both parties....