International Personal F... Share Discussion Threads

[wad collector] 21/12/2016 13:16

Numis have halved 2017 profit prediction , but I suspect they are guessing. Personally I think a rate cap is desirable everywhere but it appears that this cap is NOT an interest cap.
The consultation process will finish in 2 days and presumably a decision in the New Year . So it might not even turn out as suggested.

IC;


sell: International Personal Finance (IPF)

Planned legislation in Poland has prompted analysts at Numis to value IPF as if there is no value in the Polish business.

International Personal Finance is once again in the line of fire as Polish legislators plan new restrictions on consumer lender charges. The Polish Ministry of Justice has proposed a further reduction in the non-interest charges to 75 per cent of the loan value from 100 per cent. Shares in the subprime lender fell by as much as 44 per cent on the day of the announcement but have since recovered some ground.

The initial total cost of credit legislation came into effect in March. As a result, the group introduced a new product range to comply with the legislation and help mitigate the impact on profitability, including offering credit with longer repayment times. At the time management estimated that — without taking any mitigating actions — it would suffer a £30m reduction in profit by applying the new pricing regime to loans written during the year to June 2015. However, it estimated mitigating actions would offset around half of this impact. During the first half the Poland-Lithuania business accounted for around two-thirds of overall pre-tax profit.

Management says it is “reviewing the proposal to assess the extent to which the profitability of its Polish business would be affected by the proposed changes, should they be implemented, and is also examining appropriate mitigation strategies to minimise any potential impacts”.

Analysts estimate that where under the existing cap IPF could collect £168 from a £100 loan, under the new proposal it would only be able to collect £126. The shares are more than a third down on our sell tip, which we stick with.

[wad collector] 14/12/2016 20:07

Trying to be philosophical , last yr the share price tanked with results then bounced up 50p later that day for a tidy intraday trade.
Hard to interpret the Polish change. I see not surprisingly the brokers are re-rating;
December 2016
Numis 12/12
Reiterates
Buy
Buy
344.00p
Peel Hunt 12/12
Under review
Add
Under review
JP Morgan Cazenove 12/12
Reiterates
Underweight
Underweight
250.00p
Liberum Capital 12/12
Under review
Hold
Under review

[losos] 14/12/2016 10:49

wad collector - "Not very high and not for very long"

Doesn't look good in the long term, I was looking at these but decided on PFG but the bad news on IPF has impacted on PFG.

As LINTON5 correctly said you need luck sometimes :-) My PFG holding is relatively small so I shall stay 'long' and see where we go.

[wad collector] 12/12/2016 21:26

Not very high and not for very long , at least today!

[wad collector] 12/12/2016 09:01

Finally bouncing , but how high and how long?

[linton5] 10/12/2016 14:40

We've all been there topvest (not nice) keep your chin up,you need luck at times dosnt what stock you buy. Good news or technicals don't always work

[topvest] 10/12/2016 12:12

That's what I call a well timed move. Awful Friday afternoon for me having FRP and IPF within my portfolio. Oh well, had a good run of late.

[linton5] 09/12/2016 23:08

Jeez I was lucky also had 10k at 280 from 2weeks ago and sold yday at 282 to pop into vod 🙄Phew. Buying sky woulda been better lol

[salpara111] 09/12/2016 15:33

Another close escape for me as I had been looking at buying in after the last reasonably upbeat statement.
The problem with clamping down on the likes of IPF is that all you do is drive the desperate into the hands of loan sharks.

[bulltradept] 09/12/2016 15:31

And you, and remember, the market will be open on Monday for more (possible) opportunities! :-)

[colin12345678] 09/12/2016 15:30

thanks bulltradept have a good weekend

[bulltradept] 09/12/2016 15:28

Colin for the record, I was in @ £2.00 out at £1.9864, didn't like the action, so I took a £56 loss. Fortunately I am nicely up even taking that loss on the day (via other trades) into account. As you state, it's a learning game.

[colin12345678] 09/12/2016 15:23

so you think the bottom could be 1.40

[danieldruff2] 09/12/2016 15:23

As well as the potential hit to profits you have to bear in mind they have bonds outstanding. Price of the 6.125% bond down sharply at the moment

[colin12345678] 09/12/2016 15:22

cheers mate learning every day

[bulltradept] 09/12/2016 15:20

Colin, I learnt my lesson from the budget a couple of years ago on a particular stock whose name escapes me, once Parliament's get involved, stand well clear.

[wad collector] 09/12/2016 15:17

Poland/ Lithuania (The two are not distinguished ) were the source of £21m of the £43m profits in the last half yearly statement)
By the look of the new rules , this will clearly make a hit on IPF in the medium term , especially if other countries follow suit. It is hard to know what the long term effect will be on the reputable end of the credit market ; if the sharks go away then maybe the honest lenders will prosper? All speculative of course , and am gutted to see some big paper gains fall away , but I just added at 170. Good money after bad , or a timely bargain? Time will tell. Surely there will be a bounce today?

[colin12345678] 09/12/2016 15:07

some you win took a loss will wait

[bulltradept] 09/12/2016 15:06

Good luck colin, chart wise support is now around £1.40 - £1.50 ish, I'd suggest.

[colin12345678] 09/12/2016 14:52

took some more

[danieldruff2] 09/12/2016 14:51

There must be a danger than continued tightening of the regulations makes this sort of business unviable in some jurisdictions when you are running with a high level of impairment as part of the model.

[bulltradept] 09/12/2016 14:48

Why is it from overdone? The price is the price, buy if you see value.

[colin12345678] 09/12/2016 14:47

its back to 2012/13 prices