International Marketing & Sales Share Discussion Threads

[habayyut] 13/10/2006 09:38

siwel

still this this will go down before up.. been offered stock well below mid. i refused..

[siwel100] 13/10/2006 09:36

17 days to go.

[siwel100] 11/10/2006 18:37

Couple of weeks until the company starts buying back stock. Illiquid at the best of times, should start to get interesting.

[thinkbig?] 09/10/2006 14:56

looks like mms trying to get stock of weak holders, their is a seller at £1.15p been told by my broker.

[diogenesj] 09/10/2006 10:08

Actually, looking again at those Canaccord forecasts, the eps figures seem too low in relation to the ptp forecasts. So things might in fact be better than they seem. Has anyone seen a forecast subsequent to the results? I don't feel like writing to the investor relations director again myself, but he has always been willing to send the latest Canaccord research (for what it is worth) in the past.

[habayyut] 08/10/2006 22:06

Siwel

looking purely from a chart perspective 160 looks a likely first stop.

the last few rns' seem very good, with a russian fund taking over 500k shares. Director buys et al.

the 5% buyback seems on the face of it to be the icing on the cake. plus almost missed this... the next results are most likely going to be good.

interesting stock at first sight, very interesting

[siwel100] 08/10/2006 21:47

Diogenes...As you point out, I am trading it not marrying it. It fell from 220p on penny volume. The Russian fund has taken the overhang.The daily volume is tiny and even the couple of volume spikes are less than 200k, so 1.5m buyback is a considerable volume.They are exceptionally aggressive with aquisitions and I imagine they want the share price as high as possible as quickly as possible to fund further buys.
HABAYYUT....No target but commonsense says 160p is an obvious 1st step, then back through 190p.

[diogenesj] 08/10/2006 21:35

It is only 5%, siwel, and they will probably buy in small quantities over a period, or take some off an unhappy institution or the vendor of one of the companies they have taken over. I did say it might have a temporary effect, because the shares are so illiquid, but these shares are going to be reissued at some point, not cancelled. Over time, therefore, the net effect is slight. It is somewhat negative fundamentally, because it is really a transfer of cash from the company (which buys the shares) to the directors (the beneficiaries of the employee share scheme).

For you as a short-term trader the buyback, if it occurs, may provide an opportunity to get out at a reasonable profit.

[habayyut] 08/10/2006 21:14

Siwel

thanks for ur response on tmc. what are your targets for imsg?

[siwel100] 08/10/2006 21:00

Diogenes....The company buying back 1,500,000 shares in an illiquid and tightly held company is hardly a small amount.

[diogenesj] 08/10/2006 16:34

The chart does seem to have hit bottom for the moment. However, we have only one forecast, that of the house broker Canaccord Adams, heavily revised downwards after the profit warning in August, which was preceded by heavy director sales for which they obtained special permission from Canaccord Adams. (The sales contravened their lock-in agreements.) This suggests that the shares are trading on a forward PE of 26.48x for 2006 and 17.39x for 2007. Unless the brokers have raised their forecast very substantially since the results, that looks pretty expensive to me. (Even if they have, we can't rely on them, because their last forecast, on the strength of which the shares were floated at a very high price, turned out to be hopelessly over-optimistic.)

The directors think the share price is too low. What director doesn't, especially when he holds a lot of shares? I've heard many directors say this, and most of them have been proved wrong.

They say they have no inside information. What are we paying them for, then? They certainly had inside information when they sold in June.

They want to buy back a small number of shares, not for cancellation but to hold in treasury to be handed out later to themselves or used for acquisitions. That might push the share price up a bit on a quiet day, but will have no effect whatsoever on the value of the company.

What might help the share price is an undertaking to pay a dividend - but according to Canaccord Adams, the dividend promised at flotation has been cancelled.

Far be it from me to discourage anyone from investing in this. There is almost certainly a price at which it is worth buying. But I don't think I'll be rushing back in myself.

[siwel100] 07/10/2006 09:18

SteMis....Its one of those where cheap or not cheap doesnt really enter the equation.The company states the share price is underpriced.They reassure that the company full year results will be good. But the most important fact is that on this extremely illiquid stock, they are going to buy back 5% of the shares to raise the price.
Difficult not to find that an appealing prospect.

"LONDON (AFX) - International Marketing & Sales Group PLC (IMSG), the
emerging-markets sales and marketing company, says it plans a buyback of 5 pct
of its shares.
IMSG says the shares are currently undervalued, particularly in view of the
directors' confidence for the group's second-half trading performance.
The company said the shares will be held in treasury for use in connection
with future acquisitions and an employee share scheme which IMSG intends to put
in place later this year.
The company will seek a general authority from shareholders at an
extraordinary general meeting to be held on October 30 2006 to buy back the
shares.
[e-mail]"

[stemis] 07/10/2006 07:50

Market capitalisation = £40.93m

Cash - $16.8m (= £8.84)

H1 EBIT - $1.026m (= £0.54m)

So EV = 42 x Taxed Annualised EBIT. Doesn't look so obviously cheap to me.

Of course it loooks a lot cheaper if you mix up your currencies and don't include any tax.

Current FY forecast seems to be a PBT of £4.06m (= $7.7m). That puts them on a P/E of about 14. Again not massively cheap. To meet that they would need to have a stonking H2. Of course, don't they have a history of failing to hit profit targets?

Is this going to be the latest ramp. I 'recognise' quite a few of the posters on here from other threads.

[its the oxman] 07/10/2006 00:18

nice bounce from lows - and management seem confident on H2 so better things still to come

[hamidahamida] 06/10/2006 23:00

good thread tb

[siwel100] 06/10/2006 22:46

just a test. advfn was playing up

[habayyut] 06/10/2006 16:00

didnt realise Greg Thain held 16,469,290 shares, equates to 46.7%


very illiquid company means mm's can manipulate this alot

[thinkbig?] 06/10/2006 15:41

nearly all buys today someone is buying 5,000 lots through the day as well, only can be good for the share price.

[scottie01] 06/10/2006 09:58

on the move again;-)

[kingspot] 05/10/2006 21:18

might be in the tip sheets soon

[kingspot] 05/10/2006 21:16

looking good for 1.60