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[1krl] 31/3/2021 12:58

m1k3y1:Quite right. And lack of those vaccinations leads to spreading, variants and deaths, which also does no favours for statistics, on which people base decisions. It's a shame.

[m1k3y1] 31/3/2021 12:44

1krl....I agree with you the EU flip flopping is questionable at best.
How may of their citizens are dying as a result of NOT using the AZ vaccine and extending the delays in administering it.
I suspect , a lot more than the 9 who have been identified as having clotting issues, not yet identified as a direct result of the AZ vaccine.

[1krl] 31/3/2021 12:36

m1k3y1:Thanks - I agree with your points. Still hold 30% of my travel stocks, and I believe in the sector, long-term. But that ratio reflects that I am 70% pessimistic short-term, due in particular to EU. I will buy back the 70% once there is some definite direction and the uncertainty and flip-flopping in sentiment and politics has cleared. That may be a few weeks or a few months, who knows - but until then I feel things are weighted to the downside.As they say: better out wishing you were in, than in wishing you were out.

[m1k3y1] 31/3/2021 11:50

1krl...There will be other options available to airlines, other than the EU.
The Vaccinations in the USA are going well, which is helpful.
I think that travel will have to be opened up, in some form, otherwise large numbers of airlines, Hotels, travel companies etc etc etc wwill fail.

Of course, as long as BoJo continues to allow transport from the EU into the UK, our exposure to the Covid virus is substantially compromised.

It would seem sensible to impose a restriction that only those transport drivers who have received the vaccine, should be allowed to enter the UK from the EU.

I have to question why he isn't applying this restriction.

[1krl] 31/3/2021 11:05

USA posted 68,566 new cases on 29/03/21. That increases 7-day average to the highest since 01/03/21. 7-day average is up 24% from a week earlier - biggest increase since 08/01/21. CDC warns of a Fourth Wave as infections begin rising again across half the country. Add that to a continued, disastrous EU vaccination campaign and I think - if something does not change fast - the Brits will be having Staycations this summer.

[1krl] 31/3/2021 08:16

justiceforthemany:

I admire your optimism. My concern is that EU is a disaster...not enough vaccinations and not enough vaccines. That will ultimately impact on travel and IAG

[justiceforthemany] 30/3/2021 20:55

1krl that figure is already up to 29% as of yesterday. At 3.5 million vaccines a day this will be closer to 60% by the end of next month. How many have natural immunity already? This (seroprevalence) is estimated to be as high as 20-30%. 73% of adults over 65 in US have had at least one dose.

Approx 60% of UK adults have had at least one dose. That figure should be nearer 80% come late April. It is thankfully incredibly rare for under 18's to be admitted with Covid.

A huge 80% of Covid deaths are in the over 65's.

[creddy] 30/3/2021 19:21

rosy Royce also trading above dilution price. irrational markets/traders/investors/gamblers. they move in mysterious ways.

[1krl] 30/3/2021 18:19

The body advising the German government on vaccines recommends that the AZ vaccine should not be given to people under the age of 60. Berlin and Munich have already stopped using it - population 5 million. Watch out for renewed risk of vaccine hesitancy across EU. That will cause travel stocks to drop again.

[chiefbrody] 30/3/2021 16:49

Cases up, deaths down. Most would accept that but not our Boris.Another week or 2 and we could have some big pointers as to whether IAG will spend the rest of the year at circa 200 or 100p.

[1krl] 30/3/2021 08:24

According to CDC - as at 29 March - USA has vaccinated 27.6% of the population. (15% of the population fully vaccinated). According to EU Commission - latest figures as at 22 March - EU has vaccinated 13.9% of the population. Herd immunity requires over 70% - so not close in either case.

[justiceforthemany] 29/3/2021 22:47

With 40 US states data in deaths are down to 400 past 24hrs. A big reduction from the peak of 4,000
New cases today so far 46K, has been around 65-70K

Israeli new cases down massively in the 100-200 range, peak was 10,000.


The vaccines are highly effective.
Should see herd immunity here and US sometime in May, with almost the entire adult population vaccinated by the end of May.

Warm, sunny weather helps also!

[jailbird] 29/3/2021 20:49

https://apple.news/AzSrpSrlGS122vWjVdFBegwAfter reading this article from sky news, I am just wondering when we aviation traffic really pick up in earnest . Whitty is just asking about UK. We need global traffic to pick up fast , can anyone really see that this year ?Does anyone expect IAG to break even this year ?

[1krl] 29/3/2021 15:25

Or maybe he has.....attention.

[kasamavic] 29/3/2021 13:01

In the words of U2, "he still hasn't found what he's looking for".?

[m1k3y1] 29/3/2021 11:04

Why do you keep asking the same question ?

[davethehorse] 29/3/2021 09:37

How is this still trading above the dilution price price??

[chiefbrody] 28/3/2021 22:52

Awesome reduction in numbers. If only it was about the numbers.

[justiceforthemany] 28/3/2021 22:17

Number in hospital is closer to 3,500 now actually. That is out of 160,000 total NHS beds.
So 2%. Yes TWO.
98% of beds occupied by all the other many non-Covid diseases vast majority of which are far more deadly than Covid.

[tygarreg] 28/3/2021 18:15

There are just over 5000 new covid cases per day, that's 35000+ per week or 160000 in the last month yet we only have 4000 actually in hospital. As we know many of these were admitted many weeks ago. I think this shows how the risks of major illness have dropped and are dropping to hopefully insignificant numbers so yes we should be encouraging trade.

[tygarreg] 28/3/2021 18:09

A certain amount of trade is crucial to health. We need food, medical supplies and enough wealth to sustain us. Thanks to vaccines, the chances of now being poorly from covid are far less than other considerations. One stat we dont seem to get is new patients in hospital. We know 4000 vivid patients are in hospitals but how many new ones are we now getting. Many of those 4000 have been in hospital for weeks, possibly months. It was up at 70000 at peak