International Business M... Share Discussion Threads

[dead cat bounce] 16/6/2002 20:32

LC - just as a matter of interest, what time frame charts do you mostly use for US stocks? regards J

[scripophilist] 16/6/2002 14:05

I'll take my lead from Mr Euro.

[mr euro] 16/6/2002 10:47

What a strange sense of humour!

[gbh] 16/6/2002 10:12

I have heard this is going to go down cos no one is buying their typewriters. We all have computers now.

[limpsfield chartist] 14/6/2002 15:00

FSe I reckon it's too early too tell at the moment - I don't think the weakness is finished yet. The way I have been trading it all year is, mainly with USA stocks, buying the good charty uptrend stuff and selling the good downtrend stuff. So I have had a balance all year of just about 50% long and short and has worked very well. I do think a retest of September lows is on the cards - I don't think we are going to see a quick recovery. If this happens all my longs will gradually get stopped and my shorts should clock it in. If I am wrong then vice versa. But I think after a week like we have had, I don't see a sudden U Turn in sentiment and off to the races next week. Time will tell

[limpsfield chartist] 14/6/2002 14:53

FSE - Oh I am short the bad stuff too - like MU - best short so far this year and still falling. But by my criteria, the chart for IBM looks bad at the moment too so it's gotta be done.....

[fse] 14/6/2002 14:49

Limpy.... why not short the bad stuff though rather than the good stuff ? thats all i am saying !

[2deano] 14/6/2002 14:28

Jazza wrote: "It takes a really clued-up or stupid analyst to upgrade" Or one that needs to 'puff up' the stock. A cynic? Me? Yes. Regards.

[limpsfield chartist] 14/6/2002 14:19

Dil lmao re Energis - true too, I had forgotten.

[dil] 14/6/2002 14:11

Will you lot stop talking fundamentals please. Limpy probably thinks these are an electricty company like Energis. :-) Dil

[deltablues] 14/6/2002 10:56

Indeed. Replace IBM with ORCL or AOL and a lot of the comments on this thread could easily have been made two years ago. For some reason - I don't know whether it's accounting worries, fear of anything to do with tech, or violent objection to the CEO's choice in ties - but the big boys don't want to hold this one. Until something happens to make them change their minds, the fundamentals are irrelevant.

[limpsfield chartist] 14/6/2002 09:45

If the last three years have taught us anything, it's that share prices can often become extremely detached from sensible valuations, both ways. I don't dispute IBM as a quality company but if the market wants to hammer the good stuff with the bad, and throw up nice low risk shorts, far be it from me to argue.

[fse] 14/6/2002 09:41

Yo Dil... there are better opportunities to short OK... surely.... mysources would indicate that a lot of IBM business is seeing solid growth... IBM is morphing .... IBM is a company I study and am presently not invested in but will return to very soon as soon as this end of the world panic and hysteria abates...

[jazza] 14/6/2002 07:31

Dil, A clueless analyst would be cutting estimates in the current climate - just to be safe. It takes a really clued-up or stupid analyst to upgrade. Regards, Justin.

[treblewide] 14/6/2002 07:16

Mark my words folks business is on the up. I work in Scotland in the first quarter IBM did 45k worth of P-Series business (an absoloute disaster) this quarter so far there have been over 5 Miliion. The same is happening with software (which we all know is big margin) Treble

[mr euro] 14/6/2002 07:11

Hi mate, It isn't just analysts telling you business is picking up is it? OK treblewide doesn't work directly for IBM but he works in a channel for IBM kit. As for the other parts of the company................. :-)

[dil] 13/6/2002 22:50

Jazza I agree , looking at the fundamentals its a raging buy but all too often analysts have got about as much idea as your local GP has on how a company is performing. Dil

[jazza] 13/6/2002 22:36

Dil, It's simple, some bits are doing better than others. IBM are cutting staff in the bits that aren't doing so well. The SG Cowen upgrade suggests a forward P/E of 17 falling to 14 with growth of 20% from 2002 to 2003 and a PEG of 0.85. On fundamentals that is a bargain for a blue-chip company, but the market ain't trading fundamentals...

[dil] 13/6/2002 20:36

I'm daft :-)

[fse] 13/6/2002 20:15

IBM is a very solid company that has morphed into a succesful e business solutons/provider. I would be extremely careful in shorting IBM in fact I think its daft to do so despite the most negative sentiment possible.

[dil] 13/6/2002 19:58

Trader2 : Hasn't had much effect. Mr Euro et al , if they are doing so well why are they laying people off ? Cheers Dil PS Thanks Limpy I'll have a look .

[trader2] 13/6/2002 14:31

9:21AM IBM: positive comments from SG Cowen, UBS (IBM) 74.65: SG Cowen raises est based on recent restructuring actions and currency shifts; sale of HDD biz, estimated job cuts of 10k, sale of microelectronics facilities, and dollar decline should add $0.30 to 2002-03 EPS; increases 2002 est to $4.55 from $4.40 and 2003 to $5.40 from $5.30; says stock looks conspicuously undervalued; price target is $112. Separately, UBS Warburg says that IBM's restructuring actions clearly eliminate businesses that have been a drag on the co's earnings outlook, and that IBM is enhancing its competitiveness to a degree unmatched by any competitor other than HPQ; price target is $120.

[bpoole] 13/6/2002 09:43

Medium Systems based in Norwich. Mostly Norwich Union.