Intercede Share Discussion Threads

[julianc35] 24/10/2014 14:30

As a long term share holder watching in horror, why is it silent on here when we have lost 50% of value!

[pyman] 24/10/2014 12:01

Well... Blimey. Short was a good call..stilll like the story although frustrated at rge lack of acceleration in sales over the last two years... Thinking about filling up on a few more now...

[pyman] 07/10/2014 08:37

good luck. scary short as predators abound

[hybrasil] 07/10/2014 08:33

Turnover of about £8m v market cap of £76m. Come on. A high value for these shares would be £1.
I'm short.

[pyman] 03/10/2014 13:07

Dollar strength is all good for IGP..

[pyman] 29/9/2014 16:51

It has been a long haul but I like buy and hold, check the story every 6 months and buy at least three in the sector/trend and hope you are not 5 years early as I was here - haha.

[rambutan2] 29/9/2014 14:03

A trading update is due sometime soon ie within next couple of weeks.

[felix99] 29/9/2014 12:54

my longest ever held share pyman - traded lots of bits in and out along the way but never held an investment in any company for this long.

[felix99] 29/9/2014 12:51

Yes and I like the fact all the options etc targeted at a £4 + sell out price. It will get taken out for sure but nice to know what value mgt think is here before selling out.

[pyman] 29/9/2014 12:15

You are... Its been a slow burn for 8 years but has produced an annualized 80% RETURN for me AND the big stuff still to come..

[pyman] 29/9/2014 12:15

You are... Its been a slow burn for 8 years but has produced an annualized 80% RETURN for me AND the big stuff still to come..

[pawdaw] 29/9/2014 10:40

Been watching this for a while and just bought in. share price has simmered down from its peak of over £2.50 6 months ago, very strong set of FY results (I thought) issued in June, good cash reserves and now today's announcement. Hope I've got this one right!

[felix99] 29/9/2014 08:37

think just got to clear the stock that has been dumped by Mr 2k at a time seller last few days. Looks a good RNS to me with US going ahead even before formal approval.

If its good enough for US gov its got to be good enough for large corporates / banks using it direct to consumers imho. Just a matter of time before they crack a decent deal in that space imho and then hold onto your hats.

[ramnik007] 29/9/2014 07:35

RNS should get the share price moving north again - I assume.

[felix99] 18/9/2014 11:19

Anyone go to AGM then ?

[ramridge] 11/9/2014 15:38

Hi Looby Loo - If what you say is correct then Gemalto taking over Safenet is good news for Intercede. It means that Gemalto could potentially sell Intercede products to a wider customer base.
I also think that there is consolidation going on in this market. Gemalto or other large players are big enough to buy out Intercede from loose change. From memory Gemalto's cash balances were several times Intercede's market cap.
Anyway after mulling over this for a day or two, I have taken a small position.
Cheers.

[looby loo] 09/9/2014 15:44

rambutan2, Thanks for the links. I do think Intercede's still doing plenty of business with Gemalto. This from the 5 June finals:


“Customer and Partner Developments: " .... Signed flagship mobile identity contracts with two telecommunications companies, proving the use cases of MyID for mobile. This includes a joint Intercede/Gemalto/TELUS project, with TELUS employees accessing secure buildings and networks with NFC smartphones powered by MyID .... ”




Gemalto's also doing plenty of work on the IoT:



as is Intercede:



So perhaps the Intercede / Gemalto partnership could also bring plenty of IoT business.




ramridge, The way I see it, Gemalto’s IDPrime Personal Identity Verification product is not a competitor to Intercede’s MyID as such. IDPrime is integrated with card management systems from HID, Intercede, XTec and more:




Furthermore, Intercede’s MyID is actually powered by Gemalto's Universal Integrated Circuit Cards (UICC) and IDPrime. And that was the situation when this news was announced 6 / 7 Feb 2014:






I really don’t think Gemalto would want to go trying to build their own version of Intercede’s MyID. It would surely be such a huge task, take too long, cost too much, etc. It might make more sense for Gemalto to just buy out Intercede (if that were feasible).

Anyway, just my tuppence worth. :o)
As you say, huge implications for Intercede!

[ramridge] 09/9/2014 09:28

Hi rambutan2 - Thanks for the links. There appears to be some consolidation happening at the top end of the User Authentication market. Safenet is the Gartner Magic Quandrant Leader and Gemalto is not far behind. (Gartner's Magic Quandrant Leader status means basically that you are 'the man' in this area of expertise).

I need to do further research but it seems to me that Gemalto has a competitive product to MyID. If this is the case, then Gemalto buying out Safenet could mean the end of MyID sales by Safenet. Equally, Gemalto might decide that MyID is the better product and ditch their own.
Either way it has huge implications for Intercede. Any views from anyone?

[woodcutter] 08/9/2014 09:22

yep that's were i'm at too. I like the product but at this price with so much growth already priced in i need a little more convincing. Revenue growth year before last was only 3% but that's perhaps to be expected as the product gets off the ground, now it's up and running it could just fly.

Usually once a product is adopted by a larger material business or government agency then it gains credibility and momentum.

We'll see, like you i'm on the sidelines watching at present.

Woody

[rambutan2] 08/9/2014 03:01

Agm is a week wed and a trading update on that day would be the norm.

[ramridge] 07/9/2014 21:03

Hi Woodcutter - your numbers are interesting but they do require a huge leap of faith and optimism. Current eps of 1.6p growing to 19p in 3 yrs means a compound growth rate of 120% p.a. The black hole is the level of investment required, which the Chairman says is current priority. I am also not sure of their flagship product MyID. Would be good for some data about number of sales and revenues.
In summary I am keen to invest but would be high risk at this stage. A trading update from the company would be useful.

[woodcutter] 06/9/2014 16:52

A stock i looked at many times in it's early days and regrettably for whatever reason i decided not to invest. From recollection i figured it was just another IT story in a competitive field. Well that's been proved wrong.

I glanced through the last results and what struck me as interesting is the fact that all the R&D is expensed to the P&L annually so no messing around comparing capitalised software costs against amortisation etc. Decent cash flow too taking aside the deferred value which still has to be earned. Strong balance sheet with no debt.

Then i began to look at valuation and it looks interesting.

for 2014:
revenue £9.8m
Gross Margin 99% (strange but i've seen it before with software houses)
operating expenses £9.4m
pat £780K
eps 1.6p
per 106

annualised revenue growth 45%
annualised operating cost growth 25%

This is a nice bit of operational gearing if you can maintain it.

Nevertheless if you compound that growth forward for both parts for the next three years, assuming that's possible:

for 2017

revenue £30m
operating expenses £18.4m
operating profit £11.6m
pat roughly £9m
shares in issue 48.57m
eps 19p
forward per at current price around 9

if you compound it out over 5 years the per drops to around 3

The big question is despite the exhuberance of the CEO is this level of growth sustainable?

Conclusion, overpriced now but if growth plans materialise then you'd be wishing you'd got on board even at this stage in the proceedings. It'll get bought if it grows at this rate before the three years is up.

Current TA

It's in a downtrend descending triangle formation. Sitting on the outer lower bollinger band (not shown) Descending triangles tend to break out in the direction of the trend so if it does go through support it could move quite a bit lower given the current valuation. No clear reversal candlestick pattern emerging either.

I like the business and believe the growth may be possible but the chart is less promising so i'll wait and see how it plays out over the coming weeks. I like GBG too.

aimho woody


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