Interbulk Investments Share Discussion Threads

[rathkum] 02/3/2012 16:14

Can't figure out if 2 x 100,000 trades are a buy or one of each. Probably one is a sell since the price has remained unmoved

[jeff h] 23/2/2012 09:43

The high oil price a reason for recent share price weakness perhaps?

[azalea] 23/2/2012 07:47

Too much speculation about a supposed 'seller' without facts to back it up.I'm sticking to the numbers- few if any companies buy a 35% stake without good reason.

[jamielein] 23/2/2012 01:08

davydoo, which share was it that had a 9% seller, and what subsequently happened?

[davydoo] 22/2/2012 20:40

rathkum, not only were Sinotrans prepared to pay 11p, they also did so at a time when the share price was 3.875p, a premium of 184%

Apply the same premium now and we're talking 17.4p.

I realise thats a bit crude, but Sinotrans bought the company at a time it couldnt reduce its debt position, but only sustain it. Bizarrely, its their own investment that has changed the picture so fundamentally, reduced the debt, and put them in a position to continue to reducing it, partly by reclassifying some debt and reducing the interest costs.

[davydoo] 22/2/2012 14:18

I suspect this isn't going anywhere as long as we have what appears to be a persistent seller taking increasingly lower prices.

To me the price of todays sell also suggests more to come. If that had been the last of it, then for the sake of a couple of days they could have probably exited far higher.

In another share I own, even more illiquid than this, I watched a seller painfully exit a 9% position, however they didn't make the required declarations as they moved down through the percentages, so the market didn't officially know, although other holders were easily able to deduce.

Just have to wait for them to finish, or for important news that is more significant than the selling pressure.

[rathkum] 20/2/2012 13:20

I wonder if the ex employee that we believe is off loading/reducing his stake happens to be Bill Thompson who resigned in October to be replaced by a Sinotram appointee. If I guess right he had something like five million plus but would he sell at just 6p+?. I doubt it.

[rathkum] 20/2/2012 13:06

Charts are meaningless for such an illiquid stock.Think it this way, if Sinotrams were prepared to subscribe at 11p than Interbulk is grossly undervalued. That's the way I see it. They are in an industry where the barriers of entry into the sector are very high.

[jamielein] 20/2/2012 12:45

Decided to jump in and buy a few this morning, despite the ugly looking chart.

[the big fella] 20/2/2012 12:04

I will see if I can find out a little more, but I have already posted what I know and my thoughts around that.

[azalea] 19/2/2012 07:53

Who is this ex employee, why did he/she leave, what position did he/she hold and how many shares did he/she hold? Lots of people who leave a company sell their holdings.

[jamielein] 18/2/2012 13:54

Thanks for the information in post 279 TBF; reaffirms my belief that these are quite significantly undervalued. I'd still say the chart looks dodgy though!

I suppose the time to buy would be when the ex employee has finished selling.
Isn't it a little worrying that the ex employee is indeed selling at all? Surely they have the most knowledge about the business, and would realise that they're selling out at far too low a price. Unless they needed the cash for something.

Do we know what date their next update will be?

[kimball808] 18/2/2012 13:04

Industrial transport sector put on 5.64% this week (+12.67% since start of the year). Shame we have not taken that route..yet...We are currently at a 122% discount to the sector...

[the big fella] 17/2/2012 14:55

Some well respected posters taking an interest here, which is good to see. Some reasonable volume today with shares moving to safe hands I suspect:)

[glasshalfull] 17/2/2012 14:08

Thanks TBF, very informative.
Good to see you WJ ;-)

I've a confession to make as well...picked up a few more. So much for leaving alone until a company update!

Regards
GHF

[davydoo] 17/2/2012 13:52

After reading yesterday about port traffic up in LA, I just found this re European container traffic

[the big fella] 17/2/2012 13:50

I don't know, but if you look at the Directors holdings only 2 have over a million (one being 16 mil plus), so it is unlikely to be that many.

[davydoo] 17/2/2012 13:22

Spot on summary TBF, and why I'm happy to be one of those picking up the shares.

Although I wonder how many a few 100k's really is, and whether selling down those has also helped to shake a few others out aswell.

Appreciate you sharing though, the fact is if anyone believes in efficient markets theory, then perhaps irrational selling is the only time you can truly buy undervalued shares. In the past for me thats always meant funds selling out arbitrarily as companies mkt caps became too small to justify a holding, but ex employees is another. Similar situation in LGT where a major shareholder has just retired, and I have just started with a small stake.

[wjccghcc] 17/2/2012 13:18

Picked up some at 6.2p. Good cash generation and reducing interest expense should help offset any weakness in bulk chemical markets in Q1. And, as you say, there is always Sinotrans...

[the big fella] 17/2/2012 11:44

I had a word with our small cap fundy who has the ear of the company. The shares around at present are from a former employee. From what he gathered they had a few 100k's which they were shifting.
In response to the debt financing question raised earlier. Back in 2008 they were looking to refinace. Terrible timing and most thought INB would go bust. The mezzanine financing taken out was expensive but that kind of Private Equity deal was all that was available.
So back in 08 these were a high risk punt at best. But a few years on the position has improved dramatically. We all know Sinotrans paid 11p a share for 35% last year. This paid down debt and offered them an inside route to growth in the massive Far Eastern markets. This should drive growth 15 - 20% pa for the next few years at least.
But we also have major European players such as Atorka, Hoyer, Norbert with significant stakes.
These are lowly rated, for a stock that should grow 15 - 20% per annum over the next few years. Transport sector PE of 12 would seem undemanding, and in a couple of years could see these somewhere near 30p. Mind you Sinotrans may come knocking before then.

[jamielein] 16/2/2012 22:28

Yeah, purely on a chart basis, I wouldn't buy just yet. The company looks pretty good though.

Slightly concerned at the debt level. They're paying £10.3m interest and the £17.4m placing went to pay off debt at 12% above LIBOR. Isn't 12% pretty bad? How did they end up with such expensive debt?

[davydoo] 16/2/2012 21:18

And it's been moving down! Not a good sign

[jamielein] 16/2/2012 20:57

As an outsider (no position but was watching and waiting) - it looks like it's just you two moving the share price!

[glasshalfull] 16/2/2012 16:52

So that was you davydoo ;-)

I've been waiting for opportunity to add a few, now that I've had time to give INB a better look. Seeing that your 30k trade prompted a rise in the offer I took a few at 6.42p...also showing as a sale.

I'll now wait for confirmation that the chemical side of their operation has withstood or mitigated any weakness and operating margins have held up, but I agree with earlier posts that moot the Sinotrans deal was a game changer here. With Sinotrans having decent skin in the game the prospects for INB in the Far East Markets are exciting.

Have to say that prior to Sinotrans placing I wouldn't have invested given the debt position, but the 11p placing and 23% reduction in net debt last year has greatly reduced risk here and they look good value in comparison to peers.

Regards,
GHF