International Personal F... Share Discussion Threads

[wad collector] 19/1/2012 13:25

185p too good to resist ; 22% in a week will do me!

[wad collector] 19/1/2012 10:00

IC article yesterday perhaps cause of todays sharp rise to 180p ?
I am tempted to take a quick 20% on the ones I picked up last week ; thought they were a bargain.However still rising sharply.


By Jonas Crosland, 18 January 2012
Brokers' tips

What's new:

■ Credit demand continues to grow■ Profits this year will take a hit from foreign exchange volatility■ Economic uncertainty erodes earnings visibility

International Personal Finance doesn't seem to have any big problems racking up a decent return as a provider of non-standard loans, and a trading statement just three weeks before the end of the fourth quarter showed that lending edged up 4 per cent despite the continued drag on consumer confidence.

However, because a bulk of its lending takes place in eastern European countries such as Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic, the strong appreciation of sterling against local currencies is putting profits through the shredder. In fact, since a trading update last month indicated that currency movements would shave 14 per cent off reported profits for 2012, this has subsequently been revised upwards to 17 per cent, on continued sterling strength.

The underlying picture doesn't really offer much comfort either. For while local currency weakness increases the prospect of more output moving from western Europe to the eastern states, the real economic dynamo in places such as Poland is governed by Germany. And any sign of sustained weakness there would have a significant impact on demand for goods produced in eastern Europe. Ultimately this would have an effect on employment levels and credit quality, although IPF has indicated that prudent lending criteria have helped to maintain good credit quality.

Shore Capital says ...

Hold. For the year ahead, International Personal Finance has chosen to hedge just 70 per cent of its currency exposure, which leaves some currency risk, although there is scope to top up the hedged positions later in the year. However, we are downgrading our pre-tax profit forecast for 2012 from £93.8m to £91.7m and trimming our adjusted EPS estimate from 26.6p to 26p. Trading on 6.7 times 2012 forecast earnings, the shares already appear to be factoring in a degree of concern about the outlook for earnings growth, but risks remain on the downside.

Numis says ...

Buy. The downgrade to profits does not reflect the operating performance of the business, which we expect to show good growth through 2012 on a constant currency basis. Eastern European currencies are cheap, but investors are currently very risk-averse, although eventually this will change and we expect IPF to benefit from a substantial appreciation in the currencies it earns. The group is also well placed financially and does not need any new funding until 2015. However, assuming no recovery in the currency markets, we are cutting our 2012 EPS forecast from 32.5p to 25.7p.
TIP UPDATE:

At 154p, shares in IPF have fallen sharply since our buy tip (343p, 5 May 2011) and, despite a good performance on a constant currency basis, the exchange rate risk and worries over the economies of eastern Europe dictate a more cautious stance. We revise our recommendation to hold.

Last IC view: Buy, 331p, 20 July 2011

[wad collector] 19/12/2011 11:33

2011 2012
Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
Charles Stanley Securities
16-12-11 BUY 100.70 29.72 6.64 92.10 25.76 7.25
Numis Securities Ltd
15-12-11 BUY 102.70 29.10 7.49 114.70 32.50 8.76
Shore Capital
09-12-11 HOLD 101.90 28.90 7.20 114.20 33.00 8.2

[wad collector] 15/12/2011 08:57

15 December 2011

International Personal Finance plc

Pre-close update

Trading

With three important weeks of trading to complete before the year end, we remain on track to deliver a good result for 2011. Despite reduced consumer confidence our credit issued has continued to grow, up by 4% for the quarter to date. In addition, by carefully balancing growth with a prudent policy on credit, we have maintained good credit quality.

The current state of the global economy continues to make the outlook for 2012 unusually uncertain. In addition, there has been significant volatility in foreign exchange markets in 2011 and more recently a weakening of our trading currencies against Sterling. Overall, we estimate that compared to the effective rates used to translate overseas profits in 2011, current FX rates would negatively impact reported profit by 14%. As usual we will review our profit and loss account hedging for 2012 in January of next year.

Our business is in good shape, with a resilient operating model and a robust balance sheet, and so is well positioned to deal with these challenges.

Effective tax rate

In 2010 the Hungarian government reduced the rate of corporation tax from 19% to 10% with effect from 2013. This resulted in a one-off increase in the Group's effective tax rate for 2010 due to the reduction in value of a deferred tax asset. The Hungarian government has recently repealed this reduction in the corporation tax rate so that it will now remain at 19%. As a result we expect a one-off reduction in the Group's effective tax rate in 2011 of around 4% to 24%. The effective rate is expected to revert to around 28% in 2012.

The preliminary announcement of our full year results for 2011 will be published on Wednesday 29 February 2012.

The market unimpressed - down to 165p.I am tempted to add.Will see how things move this morning......added at 167, the prospective yield looks good , esp if WHIrelands 12 p per share next yr holds true.That would be 7.1%.

[wad collector] 01/12/2011 11:26

No kidding : I thought they ran on generosity and kindness.I am shocked.

[iomhere] 20/11/2011 15:18

wad
there's a difference between value and what the market thinks. markets run on greed and fear - the value is more stable.

[wad collector] 10/11/2011 15:24

Clearly I don't as they droop to 214.
2011 2012
Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
Broker Name Withheld 3
09-11-11 HOLD 100.00 30.90 8.00 107.00 30.60 10.00
Numis Securities Ltd
04-11-11 BUY 102.70 29.10 7.49 114.70 32.50 8.76
Shore Capital
04-11-11 HOLD 101.90 28.90 7.20 114.20 33.00 8.20
W H Ireland Ltd [R]
02-11-11 OUTP 102.70 29.50 7.70 130.60 37.60 9.40

Which if those DPS figures are correct will yield 4-5% next year .That'll do.

[wad collector] 01/11/2011 12:46

....back in at 249.I fail to understand how this company is worth 10% less in 4 days.But maybe I fail to understand the market.

[wad collector] 27/10/2011 15:52

A quick 15% was too much to resist - I 'm out for now at 277.5 ; I am not convinced this recent market rise will be sustained and hope to be back soon.

[wad collector] 26/10/2011 12:43

2011 2012
Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
Numis Securities Ltd
25-10-11 BUY 102.70 29.10 7.49 114.70 32.50 8.76
Broker Name Withheld 3
25-10-11 BUY 108.00 30.90 8.00 125.00 34.80 10.00
W H Ireland Ltd [R]
21-10-11 OUTP 102.70 29.50 7.70 130.60 37.60 9.40
Shore Capital
21-10-11 HOLD 107.60 30.10 8.00 132.90 36.50 9.1

Those 2012 pretax estimates suggest up 12 to 25%

[wad collector] 25/10/2011 18:42

425 seems a bit optimistic!

[matt123d] 25/10/2011 17:55

Look good.

Back into the 270s, bit of resistance in this area but forming a nice series of higher lows and higher highs above a rising 20dma with the 50dma flat.

Collins Stewart - Buy - Target 425p (25/10/11)

[wad collector] 25/10/2011 08:21

Interim management statement -

Profit before taxation 2011 2010
GBPm GBPm
------------------------ ------ ------
Q1 8.3 2.0
Q2 27.4 28.5
Q3 27.0 24.4
Q4 - 37.2
------------------------ ------ ------
Full year - 92.1*
------------------------ ------ ------

Some caveats but overall looks like an optimistic statement to me.Sp jumpy this morning on low volumes.

[wad collector] 07/10/2011 13:43

OOh that's a sharp rise, 10p in the last hour - looks interesting.

[wad collector] 27/9/2011 16:46

JP Morgan Cazenove upgrades International Personal Finance from underweight to neutral, target price unchanged at 330p.

I wish...

[wad collector] 05/9/2011 22:48

Spoke too soon - back down 50 p in 2 days .The whole market has become so volatile - good money for the braver than me.

[wad collector] 01/9/2011 16:39

Looks like I might be able to bale out with a 50p rise in a fortnight tomorrow.Nice to profit from these steep changes rather than just watch a holding rise and fall.

[wad collector] 31/8/2011 14:22

2011 2012
Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)

W H Ireland Ltd [R]
26-08-11 OUTP 102.70 29.50 7.70 130.60 37.60 9.40

[wad collector] 22/8/2011 17:22

2011 2012
Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
Arden Partners
18-08-11 ADD 109.55 30.70 7.50 120.11 33.10
Numis Securities Ltd
12-08-11 BUY 106.50 30.20 7.68 130.50 36.90 9.59
Shore Capital
12-08-11 HOLD 105.00 29.40 7.30 130.30 36.50 9.1

[wad collector] 19/8/2011 08:36

As opposed to a 50p loss...

[wad collector] 18/8/2011 16:20

234.5 can't resist , back in.This gave me a 4 bagger last yr 75p to 307p.Would be happy with a quick 50p this time.

[wad collector] 18/8/2011 13:52

Looking tempting again at 237p .Yield is still only 2.6% - I shall sit on my hands longer.

[simon42] 20/7/2011 10:27

I can only think these are falling because the report mentions the risks facing the European economy which could impact on their business. This is the same for every business! Badly worded.

[m.t.glass] 20/7/2011 08:08

"..Our business has performed well in the first half and has good momentum. We are confident of delivering a good performance for the year as a whole..."