Intelligent Ultrasound Share Discussion Threads

[40 fathoms] 13/4/2024 00:13

A floating charge has been registered by HSBC at Companies House. This strongly suggests that we are in the process of obtaining some form of debt facility.

Firstly, I think it is very good news that a traditional lender such as HSBC sees us as creditworthy and we have clearly been able to demonstrate to them a repayment ability. At very least we will have had to demonstrate cash flow positivity in the near term.

Secondly, although cash flow positivity is close at hand it will take 12 to 18 months to get to the position where we are generating sufficient levels of free cash flow to allow meaningful new investment in the business. It seems sensible to me that we would give ourselves the flexibility to accelerate investment in to the development portfolio including liver and fetalcheck and/or in to additional sales resources. The alternative would be to delay these type of investments by 12 to 18 months until the cash flows allowed it.

While we still need to see the size and terms of the facility as this is HSBC they are likely to be sensible. I think this may well mark the transition of IUG from a start up to an established business.

[40 fathoms] 08/4/2024 07:28

I suspect Eeza is correct, it seems like the Signature launch is imminent so I assume the launch details becoming public would be the trigger for an announcement.

[eeza] 08/4/2024 05:54

Probably with the results announcement ~22 April

[bmcollins] 08/4/2024 05:18

@40Fathoms
Thanks again for your updates, they have always been accurate & illuminating.
I wonder when we might see an announcement along these lines from the board ?

[40 fathoms] 07/4/2024 23:45

This news all but confirms, that at least on a run rate basis, we should reach cash flow positivity this year and should be meaningfully cash flow positive next year.

Once this is confirmed, from a share price perspective, I think we enter a different paradigm.

Breakeven seems to be between 16 & 17 million. The way I look at FY25 is that if we assume 10% growth in simulation sales in to FY2025 and the anticipated GE royalty revenue that takes up to breakeven. Any revenue from ScanNav PNB, Needletrainer, FetalCheck, Gestational Age & Military applications in RA will all fall to the bottom line. It is probably too early for liver products to have any impact but that has the potential to be very significant indeed, especially in light of Madrigals FDA approval of a first in class NASH drug and a encouraging results from a host of others who are one or two years behind them.

[40 fathoms] 06/4/2024 02:36

I have good news !



The first service manual you will see is for the FDA approved but yet to be launched Voluson Signature 18-20.

If you open the file and search on Sonolyst or Sonolyst live you will see that in the table in section 5.1.2 (page 5-9), that both are to be included as standard on the Signature 20 model and as optional extra on the Signature 18 model. I note that all software modules are optional on the 18 so this is obviously the bare bones variant and the vast majority of the sales are likely to be for the 20.

Once launched and on an annualised basis this should almost double the royalty income received from GEHC to the US$4.75/$5 million per annum level. With more to come as they complete the Sonolyst roll out across the fleet and introduce earlier and later protocol based scans. Also, we still have the 2nd product under development which was covered by a seperate agreement signed in Jan 22. Lastly there is also the possibility that GE looks to pick up the Gestational Age product.

[bamboo2] 02/4/2024 18:40

HQ.MED.ED has invested in Intelligent Ultrasound’s BodyWorks Eve, HeartWorks and NeedleTrainer as part of the ‘Minnesota point of care ultrasound project’ to educate thousands of healthcare professionals in rural areas across the state.



HQ.MED.ED (High Quality Medical Education) was founded more than 20 years ago as a group of emergency medicine physicians providing medical training courses. Based out of Hennepin County Medical Center, the busiest trauma center in Minnesota, the organization now offers multiple courses across emergency medicine and is pioneering a new project to teach point-of-care ultrasound (PoCUS) to rural practitioners in underserved areas across Minnesota.

The three-year, $6 million project is made possible by funding from a philanthropic group with an emphasis on improving rural healthcare and availability of services... more

[chester9] 02/4/2024 14:40

Results due in April with known guidance. They need to avoid another raise which they have told us they will. This being AIM always taken with a pinch of salt..If they can get profitable before GE or other takes over, it will be better for holders. GE may of course take the opportunity to differ. Not long now to wait.

[bamboo2] 02/4/2024 07:46

MIM deal completed by GEHC. No price mentioned, will have to wait for a financial update to find out.

[bmcollins] 26/3/2024 16:16

40F
Another very useful post, we only need a couple of Fund Managers to take a stake and we're off to the races
Thanks for posting this

[eeza] 23/3/2024 11:39

Finals were 20 April last year, so maybe 4 weeks time for this years finals.

Post Y/E items may give more insight to the African trials above.

Jan's TU mentioned: "ScanNav FetalCheck development programme announced for new gestational age AI product in Q4 2023", and

"Revenue from women's health-related AI software sales, which included both GE HealthCare royalty income combined with non-GE HealthCare revenue from studies utilising our gestational age AI software, made up over half of our clinical AI related sales."




















;

[40 fathoms] 23/3/2024 01:13

Bamboo@ There are many positive qualities I like about IUG but one of the things that I like the me most is that they are always upgrading and adding functionality to their product range. For a small company with limited resources they do this incredibly well. I have no doubt if they get this product to market, some of the possible features you suggest and more will be added overtime.

[bamboo2] 22/3/2024 18:33

40F, just to add to this story, once an ultrasound image or vid exists in the digital realm, it can then in theory be instantly transmitted anywhere in the world. This means that potential problems identified by AI can be forwarded to a real doctor for a confirmatory diagnosis, and subsequent treatment.

[eeza] 19/3/2024 11:20

Can only assume it is from the ii article above.

[chester9] 19/3/2024 11:11

Results coming soon might

[chester9] 19/3/2024 11:10

2 x 25k trades should not make 12 % for sure

[eeza] 19/3/2024 10:45

Suddenly burst into life.

[gsbmba99] 19/3/2024 00:23

Interactive Investor article featuring IUG as one of five AIM growth shares for an ISA.

[clocktower] 18/3/2024 12:19

Nice upward movement continues.

[bamboo2] 13/3/2024 08:26

40F, agree with the current t/o figure.

As the co. moves towards profitability, we would need to see a premium of around 150% on any bid.

A few of Stuart's older colleagues on the board have already retired, and as he is 62 this year, he must be giving such things some thought. A t/o would undoubtedly have a year or two of continuing responsibilities, so maybe not that far off?

[40 fathoms] 12/3/2024 23:38

@bamboo - Well found. So if we take some function of this price as a proxy for our clinical AI business, we can then use some function of Surgical Science P/E for our simulation business you are going to end up with a share price at @50p per share.

Given how awful AIM is at the moment at assigning value to growth companies, by my reckoning if we receive a T/O offer this year it will be at between 20p and 25p per share. If we see decent GA licensing activity you can bump that up by 5p, proof of concept in liver another 5p (liver is worth much more but also requires significant investment) and a large DOD deal for ScanNav PNB would add 2p.

A nice return but it would still leave a great deal on the table and I would prefer to see things be allowed to play out, at very least until liver is a commercial product. The question is where does the required investment for liver come from, equity, debt, partnership ? It probably needs @GBP 3.5 million to get it through trials and to market. I would be disappointed if they issued equity so I would prefer to see debt or partnership. One would think it would be possible to raise a modest amount of sensible finance against the GE revenue stream or to find an industry partner who is prepared to finance this.

With all of that said, I think it is safe to conclude that 9.5p per share significantly undervalues the business in almost all scenarios.