Inspired Share Discussion Threads

[wanttowin] 26/3/2018 11:54

Regent reducing by nearly 2 mill shares, if my maths are right.

[brucie5] 23/3/2018 15:49

Maaaaaaaybe even a chance that we could finish level here.

[brucie5] 23/3/2018 14:48

Me too. This has a record of dropping before staircase rises. So I'm back in for a few.

[pictureframe] 23/3/2018 14:37

Why did the CEO leave?

[wanttowin] 23/3/2018 13:57

Added 25k @ 18.88p, hope I haven't pushed the button too soon.

[rivaldo] 23/3/2018 13:43

Three late trades from yesterday just reported of 3.8m shares at 20p, which may well have been behind the flat reaction to the results.

Meanwhile, the IC today say Buy, and their thoughts reflect mine given the expansion into the water sector and the high order book - I note that Peel Hunt again seem to have a much lower forecast than others, so can only guess they have a different calculation method:

"Those who have followed our coverage of energy services group Inspired Energy (INSE) since last year will be aware of the tendency of the order book to closely predict future growth. If that trend continues, 2018 should be a strong year for the group as its corporate order book was up 39 per cent at £39m at the end of last year. Headcount in the division – the group's largest – also rose considerably to 210.

But the amortisation of acquired intangibles and costs associated with three acquisitions made in 2017 dented statutory profit and earnings figures. Strip those out and pre-tax profits were up 38 per cent, while EPS rose 24 per cent. The acquisitions also pushed the net debt up 37 per cent to £14.8m, though rising adjusted cash profits meant the net gearing position reduced.

Management announced two acquisitions alongside the results. The first, SystemsLink, provides energy management software while ECM, the second, provides management for both energy and water, and also adds water engineering capabilities to the group. The deals are to be funded by up to £5.9m in cash and shares.
Analysts at Peel Hunt are forecasting adjusted pre tax profits of £11.1m, giving EPS of 1.5p in 2018 (2017: £8.4m, 1.3p).

IC View
Trading at 14 times forecast earnings, shares in Inspired are now comfortably ahead of their historic average. However, with a Bloomberg peer group average of 17.5 times and the group expanding into the water sector, we see further upside ahead. Buy."

[yump] 22/3/2018 23:52

You can't fight the main indices, only take advantage of good companies that don't respond to good results, because of overall market weakness. Positively the overall market weakness makes it more apparent which companies are actually good for the future and which have worries. In a consistent bull market its not so obvious which ones are best as they all rise, even on average results.

[1gw] 22/3/2018 17:05

So as I read the trade reporting, UTW uncrossed at 30.0p this morning on its return from suspension, but recovered dramatically to uncross at 39.0p this evening.

INSE meanwhile fizzled out at a spread of 20.0p to 21.0p, reflecting a loss on the day.

"Go figure" feels like the appropriate way to end this post...

[rivaldo] 22/3/2018 14:33

Peel Hunt reiterate their Buy and 25p target today:



Pretty conservative imo given the low P/E together with today's acquisitions.

[nurdin] 22/3/2018 12:36

ok thanks Riv.

Disappointing reaction to the excellent results,shame.But guess that is the state of market right now..

[wanttowin] 22/3/2018 12:30

Disappointed with myself, not the stock but my anticipation of for what are proved to be excellent results,and then maybe some fireworks.
But alas all a damp squib,ah well I really should try and not look so much, I have a comfortable average at what is a long term hold.

[greenroom78] 22/3/2018 12:00

Yump - I meant generally, not just in reflection to today's news.

[rivaldo] 22/3/2018 10:57

Nurdin, the consensus was the average of three forecasts from Panmure, Peel Hunt and Canaccord. They vary widely, the figure from Panmure is incorrect as it's way out of date and I don't trust the figure from Peel Hunt as it's so much lower than the other two and pulls the average down. So I wouldn't trust that consensus figure too much!

Canaccord's forecast for this year was 1.82p EPS, so at worst that should have remained the same, and it may have been upgraded for today's acquisitions.

[martinthebrave] 22/3/2018 09:25

carcosa My understanding of IFRS 15 is that Revenue recognition has to be shown up front for the duration of all contracts & that this is effective on all Trading periods commenced after 1st Jan 18. So from now onwards for INSE. This also applies to impairments which is probably what is catching UTW out. It's one to watch & to swot up on, particularly for "lenders" with sizeable "write offs".

[nurdin] 22/3/2018 09:25

Riv..consensus eps forecast for 2017 was 1.39p according to Stockopedia...but then I dont trust their data.

[carcosa] 22/3/2018 08:50

Anyone know the answer to this:

In todays UTW AR they state they have brought in very conservative revenue recognition policy, something which INSE adopted in principle from the outset. However buried in the UTW AR they have this to say wrt IFRS 15 "the Board has determined that the revenue and profit of the Group will be materially impacted by the implementation of IFRS 15" which is, if I am reading it correctly over and above their headline numbers today. re

So the question is, what major impact will IFRS 15 have on INSE when they have to report under IFRS 15 next year? Their last AR merely stated they were looking at it.

[wanttowin] 22/3/2018 08:44

Nice 750 k buy gone through.

[rivaldo] 22/3/2018 08:29

The 1.57p adjusted EPS was also ahead of Panmure Gordon's 1.5p EPS forecast.

Panmure were forecasting 1.8p EPS for this year, rising to 2p EPS next year. Today's earnings-enhancing acquisitions should add somewhat to those figures - perhaps another 5% or so.

Even without anything from today's acquisitions, INSE are now on a current year P/E of only 11.9, falling to just 10.75.

That's pretty cheap for a successful leader in its sector.

[yump] 22/3/2018 08:29

Half an hour is a bit of a short time for a flood of investors and the mm's are not jumping prices much recently on the announcement of good news. Some larger companies have posted positive results and outlooks and dropped, the point being that they were modestly valued in the first place. atm its all very nervous, not surprisingly. Some have posted in-line and lost 10% on the day.

[greenroom78] 22/3/2018 08:24

Market remains unInspired, would be nice to see the price react to the ongoing strong performance. Fall in basic EPS a turn off maybe?

[yump] 22/3/2018 08:00

Presumably acquiring the Energy Manager platform, INSE have control over something that might be used by their competitors, although they're going to run it as a stand-alone business. Perhaps that's why they mention 'security of access' as part of the reason for the acquisition, which may have been a risk going forwards ?

[wanttowin] 22/3/2018 07:53

Excellent results my core holding INSE never fail to deliver, very reassuring news indeed.

[nurdin] 22/3/2018 07:35

Yes well pleased with the results.Note that adjusted eps at 1.57p came in quite a bit ahead of expectations of 1.39p

[cheshire man] 22/3/2018 07:34

Excellent indeed rivaldo :-)

[rivaldo] 22/3/2018 07:24

Excellent results, with 1.57p EPS and a strong order book up almost 40% year on year.

Plus also two earnings-enhancing acquisitions announced separately, costing a maximum £5.9m and bringing in £0.62m of operating profit. And that profit is historic so should have increased nicely by now.

In particular, the outlook quotes "strong trading" for this year to date, with confidence in "significant progress" for the Group.

It's ironic that such results should be published on the same day as UTW issues yet another RNS'd reminder of why INSE should be the preferred choice of any corporate customer looking for an energy specialist.