Inspired Share Discussion Threads

[wanttowin] 28/7/2017 18:11

The pain gets worse at UTW, back to its 2012 placing price, could be a target for a takeover ?

[1gw] 21/7/2017 09:45

We also got a 19.0p print and a couple very close as recently as 10th July.

[pj 1] 21/7/2017 09:31

It did 'spike' up to 19p on 24 March 2014, above that and we know there is no ''overhead'' resistance.

[rivaldo] 20/7/2017 22:48

Indeed - good to see the closing high held firm. Onwards and upwards!

[1gw] 20/7/2017 15:15

Not intra-day highs, maybe on a closing basis if it's still there?

[rivaldo] 20/7/2017 14:58

New highs now (just!).

And looking very encouraging online. I can sell a maximum 70,000 shares at 18.25p, but only buy just 2,500 shares at the full 18.75p offer.

[rivaldo] 20/7/2017 12:32

Moving nicely upwards on today's Panmure upgrade. I realised I forgot to include the 2019 forecast in my last post, so in summary the new forecasts are:

this year : 1.5p EPS
2018 : 1.8p EPS
2019 : 2p EPS

Good post 1gw.

[pj 1] 20/7/2017 10:50

Joe, thanks. So is that the same as what the adjusted eps will be reported as in Final Results, or in future years is it a different calculation?

[joe say] 20/7/2017 10:43

PJ

The JSOP Award vests subject to the achievement of Adjusted EPS performance targets. Adjusted EPS will be calculated by taking the net attributable profit and adjusting by:

-- adding back acquisition related amortisation items;
-- adding back exceptional items;
-- adding back share based payments charge; and
-- removing any impact (positive or negative) of any deferred tax.

The resultant figure is then divided by the number of ordinary shares in issue on a fully diluted basis.

[pj 1] 20/7/2017 10:03

Thanks rivaldo

Does anyone understand these LTIP's more than me?

By using 'adjusted' eps are they in effect going to ignore any further acquisitions from the calculations? As from 1.27 adj eps 2016 to target 1.66 adj eps in the initial 3 year time frame is 30% (i.e. 10% organic growth p.a.?)

If it is 30% organic and acquisitive growth over 3 years it seems low, especially as rivaldo's figures above show 20% growth alone from 2017 to 2018.

I should have attended School more :-//

[rivaldo] 20/7/2017 08:49

Panmure Gordon have today increased their target price to 23p and say Buy in a new post-acquisition update note.

They've also increased their forecasts for next year, which are now:

this year : 1.5p EPS
next year : 1.8p EPS

At the current 17.62p INSE are on a single-figure forward P/E.

[1gw] 18/7/2017 16:57

Doesn't need to be large-scale flipping to have an impact on the price (imo), given typical daily volumes.

It's difficult to use the word "investing" when you're lightening up a position isn't it? With my recent sales, INSE has gone from being my top holding to being not my top holding, but still a big holding. So that's why I described it as something between trading and hedging. Either trading round an overweight position or hedging that position. On the whole I think I've regretted not taking some profit on a big holding after a good run-up or ahead of an identified risk event more often than I've been rewarded for letting the position ride.

But in any case, so far it looks like there's not much selling and maybe the impact of buying from those who didn't get as many as they wanted in the placing will outweigh the impact of profit-taking by those who did. Which will be fine with me because of my remaining holding.

[pj 1] 18/7/2017 16:16

Each to their own and its not for me to criticise anyone else's trading style. I note you use the word ''trading'' rather than investing.

However, this wasn't a ''Bucket shop'' placing that would invite large scale ''flipping'' imo

I'm not aware of any short positions either.

[1gw] 18/7/2017 15:33

My trading/ hedging based purely on supply/demand considerations. A lot of shares have just been placed with an instant profit available to placees at the current price. So I suspect there will be some profit-taking which may depress the price for a while.

[pj 1] 18/7/2017 15:04

Normalised eps were raised from 1.41p to 1.47p (stockopedia)

[yump] 18/7/2017 14:49

The investment case seems unchanged to me at 18p and I'm invested for growth, so taking a chance that I might get 10% by trading (assuming the mm's don't suddenly jump the spread) is neither here nor there.

Worse case: about 10% reduction in earnings as a result of the new shares, which leaves them looking cheap compared to the growth, but 10% less cheap than before.

However, they've said earnings enhancing 2017, so all things being equal, they'll end up being a fraction less cheap.

I think that's enough of the word 'cheap'.

[1gw] 18/7/2017 11:22

Finally managed to get some firm quotes, so sold some more at 17.8p. Like it for anything but the very near-term and betting on (or hedging against) a pull back while the market digests the new shares.

[pj 1] 18/7/2017 09:19

I note Woodford still has 29.16% of UTW, and Miton 3.89%, so some vote of confidence there.

Forward P/E of circa x4 (UTW) looks too good to be true. and if it looks too good to be true then....?. They just cannot afford any more bad news.

I remember years ago comparing INSE to UTW, an amazing turnround and history of fortunes.

[1gw] 18/7/2017 09:03

At 18.25p mid-price and the new shares in issue, by my calcs INSE has a market cap of just over £100m this morning.

UTW currently languishing at a little over 1/2 of that.

[1gw] 17/7/2017 16:35

I tried several times today to get a firm quote at 18p to sell some more ahead of the new shares hitting the market tomorrow. Couldn't even get 25k away. So wait and see now whether profit-taking among those getting the conditional placing shares will take the share price down for a while.

[rivaldo] 17/7/2017 14:16

RNS just out showing everything going smoothly, with the acquisition complete - and what should be good results out on 22nd August.

This is a full 8 days earlier than last year. Good news is usually quicker to come out...

[mmickyboy] 14/7/2017 10:09

Thanks PJ1

[pj 1] 14/7/2017 10:08

HY was 30th August 2016

[mmickyboy] 14/7/2017 10:01

I've just topped up my holding. Anyone know when next trading statement due?

Thanks in advance

MB