Inspired Share Discussion Threads

[cheshire man] 12/2/2017 09:10

You beat me to it bb :-)

[battlebus2] 11/2/2017 23:03

Midas says buy....

[wanttowin] 10/2/2017 16:00

Despite the poor share price movement ( or lack of ) I just can't see anything wrong with this company, so couldn't resist another 15,000 at 12.8p.

[diesel] 10/2/2017 13:12

Well we are still on a rising trend from Aug, but if this drops further that may be broken....

[wanttowin] 10/2/2017 13:08

Persistent seller here, has been for ages.

[diesel] 10/2/2017 10:29

Well this is proving to be a tad dissappointing, bought into this primarily for div, and stability, but based on growth of all metrics I would have expected a bit stronger share price

[doodlebug4] 04/2/2017 12:06

Apologies, wrong thread. There's a USA company with the same ticker.

[rivaldo] 02/2/2017 11:15

INSE have been tipped by T.M.F - and it's even cheaper than they say when you consider Panmure's forecast of 1.45p EPS for this year, rather than Shore Capital's 1.3p EPS which they seem to have based their numbers on:



"2 stocks with 25% immediate upside potential
By The Motley Fool Feb 1, 2017

Soft drinks supplier Britvic(LSE: BVIC) and energy procurement consultant Inspired Energy (LSE: INSE) delivered positive trading updates this week.

Based on such good trading, I reckon there's around 25% immediate upside potential in each share price to get the valuations to a 'fair' level."

"Meanwhile, AIM-listed Inspired Energy delivered an end-of-year trading update Monday trumpeting a 40% revenue gain, a 45% surge in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA), and an order book that has swollen by 14% during 2016.

The firm has grown both organically and by acquisition and chief executive, Janet Thornton said: "Inspired had a very strong 2016 in which the business delivered on its stated growth strategy... We continue to seek out attractive acquisitions and I am confident that 2017 will be another year of positive growth."

"With its share price of 13.25p, Inspired Energy's P/E rating sits at just over 10 for 2017 and the dividend yield is projected to be 3.8% that year. Growth looks strong with analysts anticipating a surge in EPS of 19% during 2017."

"Meanwhile, Inspired Energy's valuation seems conservative given the growth figures the firm keeps posting.

What's a normal valuation?

In my view, the market is being unfairly cautious on these two firms because both are trading well with apparently good prospects for further growth down the line.

The median forecast P/E rating of all stocks with forward estimates for earnings runs around 14 on the London stock market. Re-rating to that level would see Inspired Energy put on more than 25%...

...If good trading continues and earnings keep increasing, we could easily see share price gains from here, and there's the comfort of a decent dividend in each case while we wait."

[owenski] 31/1/2017 09:46

Thanks for the post GHF

[1gw] 31/1/2017 09:38

Thanks GHF.

I've just bought some more at 13.375p (edit: showing as a sell). For info, I had a buy order sitting in at 13.3p for most of yesterday and earlier today, but it wasn't filled. So bought on quote and deal in the end.

INSE now my second-biggest holding.

[glasshalfull] 30/1/2017 19:28

Nice positive trading statement today...as we've come to expect.

Panmure provided a brief update,

"Management note that “trading remained strong throughout the year, a trend which is continuing into the start of the new financial year” underpinning our (unchanged) forecasts for FY17 (1.5p EPS) and FY18."

and conclude,

"Valuation – cheap on all measures, but principally on free cash flow

The shares have remained range bound (12p to 14p) for the last twelve months, moving broadly in line with larger peer UTW, despite that latter’s c.£30m of non -current receivables.

INSE’s balance sheet is free of non-current receivables, yet trades on a PE of 9.1x against UTW’s 8.0x cal.)

We believe that INSE deserves to be rated far higher than this 14% premium over UTW, given that the proportion of accrual - heavy SME profits is only 25% for INSE, but 90%+ for UTW.

INSE’s 9%+ free cash flow yield and 3.8% dividend yield (c.3x covered) suggest that, on an absolute basis, the valuation is even more attractive when considered relative to peers.

We restate our undemanding 19p target price (40%+ upside) which would put the shares on a PE of 13x, a PEG of 0.8x, and a FCF yield of 6.6%, for a rapidly deleveraging, high-visibility, high-margin (35%+) growth stock."

---

Hope this assists.

Kind regards
GHF

[rivaldo] 30/1/2017 11:41

We still have a seller around, with plenty of stock around to buy online at 13.38p.

These situations occur all the time. As soon as the overhang has cleared the re-rating is quick and often sizeable. Just in the last few weeks GMAA has almost doubled after a large shareholder finally exited having driven the price down to ridiculous levels, and the same has started to happen at SCH with a 25% or so rise in the last 2-3 days.

It's just a matter of time and patience, especially as INSE has continued to deliver.

[diesel] 30/1/2017 10:30

Nothing spectacular just same old solid performance. We have been in an up trend since Aug, I don't see that changing, probably see 14+ this week.

[the big fella] 30/1/2017 09:51

I am not sure what the catalyst will be for a re-rating. The company just needs to keep delivering as they have been. Maybe we could be a target for a low ball offer given that the Thorntons seem happy to reduce their stake.

[melody9999] 30/1/2017 09:46

Surprised at the lack of interest but then should have known its par for the course for INSE. I suspect we are going to get some positive write ups and tip sheet interest now because the company continues to grow steadily without any share price appreciation.

[yump] 30/1/2017 08:55

Looks like one of those stocks that sits on a cheap p/e for ages and then takes off to a sensible valuation, with nobody really knowing why, except the possibility that up until the takeoff, there was a constant drip-feeding of shares onto the market from earlier investors, but under the level at which there would be a constant stream of holdings RNS's.

[the big fella] 30/1/2017 08:44

As always we will need patience with INSE. The trading statement read very well. 2017 has started strongly. I am not sure what people want or expect but there really aren't many other growth stocks on a single digit PE.

[rivaldo] 30/1/2017 08:39

Panmure Gordon have this morning reiterated their forecasts as follows:

- last year - 1.2p EPS, 0.5p divi
- this year - 1.5p EPS, 0.5p divi

That's a current year P/E of 9.1, with 40% upside to their 19p target price.

[wanttowin] 30/1/2017 08:28

Tried a few dummy buys and sells to ascertain what the early trades were this morning, not many approx 270,000 mainly sells around 14p. Staggered to see that the mm's then shut the doors and refuse any online sells,even tiny ones.
It really is a disgrace they can act in this way.

[melody9999] 30/1/2017 07:59

the order book is the pipeline of sales in process but not yet contracted. so the order book remaining virtually constant just means that the same value of new prospects have come on to the order book as have been converted into contracts for the period in question.

[wanttowin] 30/1/2017 07:58

ok cheers rif, I didn't think about the possible conversion to sales.

[rivaldo] 30/1/2017 07:49

Presumably they had a strong close for the year and converted some of that order book to sales. The movement is relatively small potatoes at just 2.7%.

It's still up 14% year on year, and up 9% excluding acquisitions.

[wanttowin] 30/1/2017 07:39

Did they not state in Sept that the order book was 28,8 mill, now 28 mill?
Does that mean no extra orders since Sept?

[rivaldo] 30/1/2017 07:12

Excellent trading update:



- nicely in line with consensus 1.15p EPS expectations
- order books up healthily
- strong start to this year, with 1.38p consensus EPS forecast (plus 0.5p dividend)
- more acquisitions likely

On a single-figure P/E for this year INSE are just much too cheap imho.

[rivaldo] 26/1/2017 16:21

Nice close...come on INSE :o))