Inspired Share Discussion Threads

[the big fella] 15/12/2016 12:23

Riv - not much change behind the scenes plenty available at 13p.

[rivaldo] 15/12/2016 12:09

Good to see a tick up on a £1,700 buy :o))

[the big fella] 14/12/2016 22:50

These really should 20p+.

[yump] 14/12/2016 21:49

This looks like another of those stocks that carries on in a very long consolidation, while original stakeholders, funds, folk with options from early on etc. sell out while the results are positive and then for no obvious reason the share price breaks out and carries on in a more normal rising cycle.

ie. 'normally' gradually improving results give a gradually improving share price, not sudden rises and then nothing for a year.

Although I haven't done the stats. it just looks like that. Shares do seem to take off quite often when the business has not suddenly changed. Then everyone is surprised.

So that's either caused by ramping, or more likely that a mixture of large sellers has finally disappeared.

[glasshalfull] 14/12/2016 17:27

rivaldo - I can't determine who's turned on the tap here. May well be have been from issuance of shares as part of a previous acquisition??? ... i.e. Such as the 5.5m issued in May 2016 in respect of the STC Energy consideration.

Anyway, I remain undeterred & picking up stock as/when they fall back below 13p since late November...purchased 100k today at mid.

Per my post 1022, at this price INSE will be on a PER of 8.8 next year despite delivering 5-yrs of consecutive earnings growth & delivering a positive outlook for H2 2016.

Don't think anything else requires to be said ;-)

Kind regards,
GHF

[the big fella] 09/12/2016 16:06

Who knows. This is one frustrating share!

[rivaldo] 09/12/2016 15:55

500,000 shares just traded at 12.5p - the end of an overhang?

[rivaldo] 02/12/2016 15:39

Nice 95k buy at 13.82p just reported from yesterday. Come on INSE!

[rivaldo] 30/11/2016 09:36

Looks like your timing was good GHF - a decent bounce taking shape here.

[glasshalfull] 22/11/2016 13:29

See I'm in good company ;-)

Rivaldo - Not a problem with you reproducing anything I've posted...was simply presenting a brief summary & highlighting the value that I believe exists at the present time.

Kind regards
GHF

[the big fella] 22/11/2016 09:10

Superb post as always GFH. Good to see you back.

[rivaldo] 22/11/2016 09:08

Likewise! Looks like GHF has a fan club - or his buying cleared an overhang....

GHF, do you mind if I copy the meat of your post elsewhere as it's a good summary?

[cheshire man] 22/11/2016 08:02

Good to see you back GHF :-)

[glasshalfull] 22/11/2016 06:16

Courtesy to declare I've taken a recent position. I've held these on/off over the last 3/4 years but the recent share price weakness offered an opportunity to re-evaluate... and it looked compelling. Looking more & more like a share with a number of ZULU attributes.

They are on a PER of 10.6 for 2016, year end that finishes in 5 weeks, & PER of 8.8 for next year, despite delivering double digit earnings growth in 2015 & strong set of numbers for H1 2016. The shareprice is 1p below the 13.75p it sat at this time last year.

Worth pointing out to that Inspired Energy have delivered consistent earnings growth over the last 5 years, notwithstanding positive noises over future growth. I think it worth reiterating their earnings history dating back to 2011, demonstrating strong profitable growth & a progressive dividend policy which have gone gone somewhat under the radar:-

Adjusted diluted EPS

2011
Turnover £1.5m
PBT £0.9m
EPS 0.19p
Div Nil

2012
Turnover £5.26m
PBT £2.3m (+155%)
EPS 0.46p (+142%)
Div 0.11p (maiden dividend)

2013
Turnover £7.6m
PBT £3.3m (+43%)
EPS 0.64p (+39%)
Div 0.17p (+54%)

2014
Turnover £10.8m
PBT £4.3m (+30%)
EPS 0.85p (+33%)
Div 0.25p (+47%)

2015
Turnover £15.2m
PBT £5.1m (+19%)
EPS 0.95p (+12%)
Div 0.35p (+40%)

---

The interims confirmed strong growth in cash & profitability, with Adjusted EPS (+38%) in H1 & indications that H2 started strongly with this bullish statement,

"The Group's acquisition strategy has delivered great results as demonstrated by the success achieved by the acquisition and integration of WPUK and STC, while organic growth momentum has continued. Since 30 June 2016, and through the enlarged teams working together, we have signed our largest ever account within the Corporate Division and are confident we will deliver another set of record results for the year ended 31 December 2016 enabling us to looking ahead into FY 2017 with even greater confidence."

In H1 they delivered a 34% increase in operating cash with corresponding 9% fall in net debt to £8.1m, despite current receivables rising. Their order book also appears to be growing strongly providing further visibility.

On the back of these results & recent acquisition of IBS Panmure upgraded turnover by (+8%) and EPS (+7%) in 2017 to £25.9m and 1.45p EPS. So on a prospective PER of 10.6 for the year just ending & PER of only 8.8 for 2017.

2016 est
Turnover £21.0m
PBT £7.6m (+19%)
EPS 1.2p (+26%)
Div 0.45p (+29%)
PER 10.6 (@12.75p)

2017 est
Turnover £25.9m
PBT £9.3m (+22%)
EPS 1.45p (+21%)
Div 0.5p
PER 8.8 (@12.75p)

Panmure indicate:-

"At our 19p target price, the shares would trade on 13.1x, a material discount to the market for a company that is growing organically at 10%+ CAGR, has c.40% EBITDA, modest gearing (0.5x net debt / EBITDA) and a significant opportunity in a large and underpenetrated market , in which we expect further consolidation.

Last month, we noted that INSE’s interims showed a 30% dividend increase and 34% growth in its operating cash. The shares trade on a 2017 FCF yield of >12%."

I recognise that energy purchasing & consultancy services won't be everyone's cup of tea, but in a current market where it becoming difficult to find value, INSE's track record and future projections mark them at least worthy of research.

Kind regards,
GHF

[rivaldo] 21/11/2016 12:15

A further 401,000 shares reported bought today at 13p.

Agreed TBF. I note that Panmure now forecast 1.45p EPS for the year starting in only 2 months' time. A P/E of just 8.8 means there's upside of at least 50% from here imo.

Shore Capital's lower forecast is still 1.3p EPS, which is also a single-digit P/E.

[the big fella] 21/11/2016 08:53

Riv

Sooner or later people will wake up and realise how cheap these are. We should get a trading update in the new year which should help.

[rivaldo] 21/11/2016 08:19

Good start to the week - 200,000 shares bought in 3 tranches and a decent bounce.

[edale] 18/11/2016 17:16

Won,t this be the balance of director share sales from some weeks ago. I don,t think they were all accounted for in the previous major holdings declarations.

[pj 1] 18/11/2016 16:07

Transfer of shares surely? Another 2million

[the big fella] 18/11/2016 15:14

Can only be a positive. Hopefully moving to safe hands. Given the last trading update we had, surely these will trade higher before too long.

[rivaldo] 18/11/2016 15:13

17.5m shares now traded, mostly at 12.25p....

[makingmillions] 18/11/2016 12:37

Putting those trades and prices in time order makes it look like the two large trades were in fact buys?Anyone have thoughts.

[funkmasterp12] 18/11/2016 12:14

Same old INSE unfortunately.

[the big fella] 18/11/2016 12:07

Very frustrating, but I am a firm believer that value will out eventually.

[rivaldo] 18/11/2016 12:04

Wow - a 6.5m and a 6m trade both gone through at 12.25p.

Ending of an overhang? I bleedin' well hope so - this share is both extremely cheap and extremely frustrating.