Innovaderma Share Discussion Threads

[connor23] 10/10/2018 08:23

I hadn't considered that but good point. IDP obviously didn't anticipate this as last year they spoke about increasing sales in Australia / NZ off the back of new packaging. Getting things right in Australia seems like a potential 'easy' win to me so I'm just interested in what is being done I guess. I'm also wondering what's happening in the US, but that seems a different kettle of fish. I wonder if the focus there will pivot to Roots, Prolong Headmaster... Happy of course for the focus to be in the UK market at this point, but I would hope territories where ST is already in the marketplace will receive some attention over the next 12 months to help stimulate sales.

[boonboon] 10/10/2018 07:53

Good question Connor,Could it be now that manufacturing has been brought to the UK, higher costs means we are asking too high a price from Australian retailers? Chemist warehouse are a discount retailer and they've stopped selling SkinnyTan.Presumably the majority of our Australian rivals are manufacturing there so have lower costs, which they can pass on to the retailers?

[rk23] 10/10/2018 07:50

I see a relief rally bounce back to 1.40 today, and then back to 1.50 end if week.Hammered way to low, due a bounce.

[connor23] 10/10/2018 07:41

You maybe right there Boon. If I make it to the AGM I want to ask about Australia (although I appreciate its current contribution to the overall group sales is limited currently). Surely we should be able to cross sale the flagship product (at least for now) into Myers and other retail outlets. I would have hoped the success of Charles + Lee (which I agree is doing great and) would have given IDP and opportunity to have had those conversations. On the website I can only see Priceline as a stockist which seems strange being that ST had been established in Australia for some time.

[boonboon] 10/10/2018 06:33

But I agree the main growth will be from Roots. I also expect Charles and Lee to show strong growth albeit from a low base.

[boonboon] 10/10/2018 06:28

Personally I think the destocking has already happened. Shelf space has already reduced and sales last year to Superdrug were slightly down. Despite sales out of superdrug being up 12%.In addition we have the new products, Face, bum booster and skin blur, which weren't available last year.SkinnyTan professional also seems to have picked up with the salons direct deal.Australia and the USA both have the new packaging so hopefully sales there will start to improve.I'm not expecting big growth in skinny tan in the first half, but would be surprised if sales fell.

[vanadiumx] 10/10/2018 06:16

What utter twaddle.

[onjohn] 09/10/2018 23:35

skinny sales will have cratered due to destocking by Superdrug
direct sales also down due to ASA complaint

[connor23] 09/10/2018 23:13

I'm more cautious about H1. We will gave headwinds from SD most likely running down stock ahead of Boots coming on board in 2019, as well as a possible reduced contribution from ST in Australia (when did we lose the large retailer last year? H2?). The real gains will be in H2 when ST is in Boots and when Roots will hopefully be hitting its stride and rolled out further. Realistically I am just hoping for some growth off of the back of the success of Roots but I wouldn't like to quantify that. Happy to be proved wrong of course!

[gregpeck7] 09/10/2018 22:17

??? 175,000 in delayed sells reported after the bell? It's a fact.

[doc robinson] 09/10/2018 19:44

Roots products - conditioner,shampoo and hairspray all moving up the bestseller charts at boots !

[gregpeck7] 09/10/2018 19:38

Some huge after hours sells. Someone is still dumping large.. institutions had enough?

[milliecusto] 09/10/2018 19:10

Plucking a number from thin air doesn't make u the Oracle

[muzmanoz] 09/10/2018 18:45

Why don't you go and post on that board then. Nothing sadder than people posting on boards when they clearly have no interest in the shares.

[old fool2] 09/10/2018 18:13

This is from a poster "Shandypants2" on LSE site


last year H1 revenue was £4.2m. Roots was only launched in August 2017 in a limited number of SD stores so sales in first few months would have been quite low so i think the £1m rev for last financial year would have been heavily weighted in H2.

Therefore, maybe revenue was split £3.9m ST, 200k Roots and 100k everything else (C+L, Leimo and Stevie K etc).

Now if IDP hit revenue and profit targets fro 2019 and 2020 then this share is seriously undervalued. We have the new retailer contracts sorted and product extensions have also been added we just need to deliver now.

Rev for this year is targeted at £14.4m - this is a 26% uplift on this year (£10.7m). Therefore we need H1 to show a steady increase to inject some confidence back into he share price.

If ST stays steady at £4m (higher DTC and more products and more non UK outlets should offset flat SD sales) then Roots should provide most/all of the growth.

If H2 last year produced £800k rev via SD and DTC i think this can at least be maintained as there are now more SD stores and more products (to offset some sales decline due to Boots).
Boots could be selling £100k a month (800 bottles a day, 100 online plus 2 per store at £4 a bottle) that should contribute £400k extra and Tesco's initial order maybe £100k. So Roots could produce sales of £1.3m. If all other products contribute another 100k too that's...
£5.4m revenue - a 28% increase.

With revenue always H2 weighted and with ST going into Boots in Feb/March 2019 (initial order has been conservatively estimated at £750k - based on 5 bottles per product) then we are definitely on track to meet and hopefully exceed these targets. If so a share price of £2.20 based on PE of 20 could be seriously undervalued.

If Roots goes into more Boots stores then H2 numbers could increase further.

For full year i'm expecting Roots rev to be c£3m. This is based on little increase at SD (£1.6m for full year, based on H2 2018) £1m from Boots (100k p/month for 10 months) and Tesco £400k (50k p.month for 8 months) and it is a growing brand that is to be launched in other countries too.

I am trying to focus on the numbers rather than speculate why HC sold a small % of his large holding (the overhang is clearly dragging the price down in the short term)

[teddy boy1] 09/10/2018 17:57

In your dreams- ONJohn!

[onjohn] 09/10/2018 17:34

Still getting closer to a golden shower in my view. I would expect that to be achieved in a month or two, but not quite there yet. Then we can expect 40p

[onjohn] 09/10/2018 16:53

how is your foxtons nyboy

[arab3] 09/10/2018 16:53

what price were your previous buys ny boy ?
not lth like all your other shares !!!

[ny boy] 09/10/2018 16:47

Oh dear lol!

Another one let out early

[onjohn] 09/10/2018 16:40

looking for 40p here when they warn

[kemche] 09/10/2018 16:37

Stunned investment community!

:)