Inland Homes Share Discussion Threads

[irishlass2] 18/11/2020 10:08

Thanks, Spob. What is the date of this buy recommendation, pls?

[spob] 18/11/2020 01:15

Exploit Inland’s hidden value


■ Significant Build to Rent sales.

■ Record land bank.


Inland Homes (INL:58p), a south-east England-focused housebuilder and brownfield land developer, is trading far better than investors are giving it credit with the shares priced on a thumping 44 per cent discount to proforma European Public Real Estate Association (EPRA) NAV of £234m (103p a share).

Importantly, a raft of recent deals should enable net debt of £138m to be paid down, thus unwinding the elevated equity risk premium embedded in the share price. Inland has announced two major sales to Build to Rent (BtR) funds in the past month alone including the £31.5m disposal of 123 units at its Centre Square development in High Wycombe that is scheduled to complete in March 2021. Half the consideration will be paid on completion and the balance in monthly staged payments before then, thus providing significant cash flow. Inland has also exchanged contracts on the £21.3m sale of 85 units at Buckingham House, High Wycombe to another BtR fund with completion slated in early 2022.

Inland now has 415 private homes under construction and 1,302 partnership homes across 13 sites. A third of the £156m forward order book are private homes and commercial units. To put this into perspective, Inland sold 226 homes at an average of £287,000 in the 12 months to 30 September 2020, generating revenue of £65m, accounting for just under half the directors’ total revenue guidance of £135m.

It's worth noting that net reservation rate per sales outlet increased sharply during the last quarter, driven by a combination of underlying demand in the marketplace and the Stamp Duty Tax holiday. The point is that Inland’s affordable private homes should continue to sell well, while at the same time the company de-risks revenue visibility even further through institutional BtR bulk sales and housing association partnerships. It’s the right strategy to pursue.

Furthermore, Inland’s land bank of 11,045 plots is at a record high, of which almost 2,500 plots have planning consent, 2,800 plots are strategic land held under option at a discount to open market value, and the balance are in the planning or pre-application planning stage. This offers scope to continue to realise value from land sales, or through housebuilding activity.

True, we need to wait for January’s results to ascertain the level of profitability as there are no earnings forecasts in the market. However, what’s clear to me is that as more sales are booked, and the balance sheet de-gears, then the unwarranted 44 per cent share price discount to NAV should narrow. Prior to the March stock market crash, the shares were priced on a 10 per cent discount to EPRA NAV.

Interestingly, Inland’s share price appears to have completed a base formation, having traded in the 47p to 57p range since early April. A likely chart break-out opens the door to a rally towards the 80p previous resistance level. Trading at the 57.75p entry point in my 2019 Bargain Shares Portfolio, and with my standing dish first quarter seasonal housing building sector trade almost upon us (‘Alpha alert for housebuilders’, 3 January 2018), Inland shares are worth buying from both a technical and fundamental perspective.

Buy.

[yump] 17/11/2020 19:01

Skinny

Excellent !

Igbertsponk

Oh dear this thread is deteriorating ;-))

[igbertsponk] 17/11/2020 13:24

...clear indication that the Robin marketmakers are up to no good.

[skinny] 17/11/2020 13:19

Ah - the old 'batman' formation .... :-)

[bwm2] 17/11/2020 13:18

M9
Sold on 13th March at 60p as part of a final de-risking clear out and have being purchasing since July. The story is compelling in my view

[mallorca 9] 17/11/2020 12:07

What was very much taking this one down was fear of another full on lockdown closing construction sites, and the impact on cash.

That fear is totally removed in my view as the Gov't wants construction to stay open almost no matter what.

Onwards and upwards.

[irishlass2] 17/11/2020 12:07

Being bought by the guys on Addicted2shares on Fbook. First stop 80p.

[irishmatt] 17/11/2020 12:00

Amazing timing

[mallorca 9] 17/11/2020 11:59

Gosh I'm well into profit already

[mallorca 9] 17/11/2020 11:30

Cheer's bwm2.

Got to say .. anyone who picked up those placing shares at 47.5p did well !

Another thing I like about this one is that it will definitely be a buy out target at some point in the future, with it's record land bank and expertise in the planning approval process.

[bwm2] 17/11/2020 11:14

M9 welcome back my friends to the show that never ends

[mallorca 9] 17/11/2020 10:54

I'm back in.
More or less the same share price as I sold out at all those months ago.

It looks set to rise, certainly through 80p.

The right sector with huge Government backing for affordable housing.

I'm comfortable with the debt given the cash inflows from Partnership Associations.

Rising against a sticky market this morning so there must be growing interest.

[irishmatt] 17/11/2020 10:06

Lovely move this morning

[its the oxman] 17/11/2020 09:54

Plenty more left in the tank here if recovery is coming.

[sphere25] 17/11/2020 09:38

Ooohed and aahed abit yesterday but breakout being confirmed now

[cheshire man] 16/11/2020 15:51

Good to see this moving in the right direction today :-)

[suetballs] 16/11/2020 13:30

OMG - investors who did nothing during this pandemic are coming out from behind their sofas.
Well done to everybody who stuck with it.
Suet

[skyship] 16/11/2020 13:19

"...Inland shares are worth buying from both a technical and fundamental perspective. Buy."

Well, certainly looks as though we have finally broken free of that channel shown in 4319 above.

[igoe104] 16/11/2020 13:18

Breaking out now..🥳ԍ95;🥳🥳;🥳

[standish11] 16/11/2020 12:53

Simon Thompson has given it a further boost today.

[sphere25] 16/11/2020 12:13

Stream of buys coming in.

Chart is threatening a very significant breakout of the range.