Inland Homes Share Discussion Threads

[cheshire man] 23/6/2017 15:15

Good news indeed thanks for posting gp :-) a few buyer's in on the news by the looks of it

[igbertsponk] 23/6/2017 14:55

Great news - the Council made them increase density. AND there's no social housing element needed. So all the flats to be sold at top dollar !

[spud] 22/6/2017 13:33

PE now at 3.7....

And yes, the NAV boys will say you can't measure the value with this financial instrument but I disagree & will continue to buy this undervalued stock.

spud

[mark2market] 17/6/2017 14:39

I believe John Rosier’s portfolio sale was 15265 shares at 11.53am (in fact two sales for that amount, as his blog portfolio mirrors his family portfolio), so total value £17k.

Part of his philosophy is to usually cut losers if they are down 20%, so having bought at around 70p this looks like just sticking to his own rules - partly pragmatic portfolio management, partly because paying subscribers would not tolerate looking at a portfolio full of losers!

He is not averse to buying back into shares, even at a higher price (Lloyds was a recent example of this) - from a presentational viewpoint (which is important for retaining/recruiting subscribers) a future Inland share price of 63p, say, would look like a better decision if the buy price had been 56p rather than 70p.

So the presence of subscribers arguably leads to over-trading, more risk aversion, and lower investment returns - it is notable that when his blog was free his returns were much better than since adopting a subscriber model (e.g. in 2016 his portfolio actually had negative returns, so to some extent he is resting on the laurels of a very good 2013, when returns were high enough to start charging blog readers).

[spud] 17/6/2017 10:26

As of Jun 09, 2017, the consensus forecast amongst 2 polled investment analysts covering Inland Homes PLC advises investors to purchase equity in the company. This has been the consensus forecast since the sentiment of investment analysts improved on Nov 04, 2015. The previous consensus forecast advised that Inland Homes PLC would outperform the market.

spud

[mark2market] 16/6/2017 22:35

Maybe his subscription revenues outweigh his portfolio returns?
He booked a 20% loss on this particular investment.

[spud] 16/6/2017 22:28

Looking at the trades data reveals that he (John) couldn't have had much more than a few thousand quid's worth at most. That's a lot of influence for not much more than loose change!spud

[mark2market] 16/6/2017 22:22

Looking over the trading data for today, the price was flat until midday, with only a handful of trades in the morning.
His email arrived at 12.06, and the selling started at 12.11, with 37 trades in the first hour (some buys but mostly sells), then continuing but at a slightly slower rate.
I guess most of the selling in the first hour was from subscribers - some later ones were maybe from non-subscribers, either stop losses or investors generally unnerved by the pace of selling.
At ten to four there was a capitulation which looks like stop losses triggered, maybe spread bets closed out, then a mini-rebound in the last half hour.

[imranawan] 16/6/2017 21:55

mark2market - do you subscribe to Johns Investment Chronicle? I'd be surprised if he had that much influence to move the price down so much, but I could be wrong. I've noticed the Naked Trader has the ability to move prices quite significantly after he's updated his trading diary, but not thought that John had that kind of influence.

[mark2market] 16/6/2017 19:32

Today’s sell-off apparently sparked by “John’s Investment Chronicle” - John Rosier emailed his followers shortly after midday to say he’d sold, citing `concerns that the background might not be so supportive in the coming years’.
Cue a few hours of his subscribers dumping stock until, after stops triggered at 3.50pm, Inland rallied into the close with some cooler heads hoovering up 50,000 shares at 54.5p and then 40,000 at 54.75p.
Meanwhile the rest of the house builders were mildly positive, up around 1% on the day.

[shanklin] 16/6/2017 17:20

spud, if I held INL shares, a bid would be the outcome I would be hoping for. Obtaining the genuine TBV from a buyer would I imagine give shareholders a very decent profit.

[spot1034] 16/6/2017 17:15

I wonder if Wicks and Malde, both of whom are at or near retirement age and given their significant holdings in the company, might look at the present political situation and judge that their tax bills upon an eventual sale of the company are much more likely to rise than fall if they hang on much longer.

[spud] 16/6/2017 16:39

I'm buying the weakness on the expectation of a bid, not a recovery as the downward selling pressure and lack of any Institutional interest has ruled that option out in my mind.

The next support is circa 50p. If it slips below, then I believe we're into t/o territory.

spud

[shanklin] 16/6/2017 16:29

buywell3

I presume management have taken the view that they can make so much more out of building on all the plots on which they get planning permission that it justifies increased gearing.

This obviously runs the risk you describe albeit management must be well aware of the situation.

Personally, I feel much comfortable not being invested here, albeit the real NAV may be increasing sharply. Of the builders, I am only invested in TEF and WJG where the proportion of properties, forward sold for delivery in the next couple of years, is very high and gearing is not an issue

[buywell3] 16/6/2017 16:15

You mean they have ramped up just when the UK property market is starting to slide

[shanklin] 16/6/2017 16:09

I guess the market does not like INL's change of strategy which is seeing a massive ramp up of their housebuilding operations and their gearing. I much preferred it when a significant proportion of the land on which they obtained detailed planning permission was sold on to other housebuilders. This locked in profits earlier, kept gearing at a lower level and helped fund new opportunities

Unless there is a fear that land development opportunities will dry up (really?), I don't see the benefit of the change of strategy.

[bearhug2] 16/6/2017 15:57

If this continues someone will come in with a hostile..Is it Wicks selling and driving it down?

[orinocor] 16/6/2017 15:08

terrible share price performace. the uther housebilders are up twoday

[igbertsponk] 16/6/2017 13:32

Like your spelling.

[rickyvader] 16/6/2017 13:00

This share is consistantly dissapointing!

[orinocor] 09/6/2017 20:50

Good luck with that strategy. If you do wait until they generate the same level of returns the share price will be over a pound. Having said that the NAV is up 8% over the last 12 months which is a very decent performance. One caveat is INL have a slightly different business involving brownfield regeneration. In the meantime I'm confident the downside risk is minimal with risk reward skewed to the upside. I can't say the same for the other house-builders.

[horndean eagle] 09/6/2017 18:46

No point complaining about trading below NAV when the company doesn't generate the same level of returns as others do. Until they crack on with building out their assets a discount will remain.

[spud] 09/6/2017 09:38

Absolutely, that's why I've been aggressively buying sub 60p. There's huge upside here either through value or a buyout.spud