Ing Uk Real Estate Income Trust Share Discussion Threads

[tiltonboy] 13/1/2009 16:38

nick,

Sorry, I do not know.

[nickcduk] 13/1/2009 16:16

Easy mistake to make. The news release was wrongly tagged to IRET. I had to do a double take as well before realising.

Tiltonboy - Do you know whether the securitised debt has been packaged up with other portfolios or not? Be interesting to know where that debt is currently trading.

[glynnef] 13/1/2009 16:08

OK thanks.
At least I know I did not imagine it.

[chopshs] 13/1/2009 15:38

Glynne - It was for ING Global Real Estate Securities Limited. Nothing to do with IRET

[glynnef] 13/1/2009 15:35

I may be going crazy, but I was sure I saw a RNS NAV statement issued by IRET yesterday. It was 79.xxp which I thought didn't look too bad when I compared it with the previous interim management statement on 18th Nov.
Did I imagine it ???

[pictureframe] 13/1/2009 14:04

I am looking to invest in the sector anyone agree UKCM appears the safest ? .Not as well versed as some of you on here and any assitance would be appreciated

Thanks

[chopshs] 13/1/2009 13:54

Tiltonboy - you've prompted me to also ask again about the LTV breach scenario. I have followed up on my previous e-mail (see post 51 above). Have asked them to clarify in the forthcoming NAV announcement, which I expect next week.
Will let you know here if I hear anything in the interim.

[tiltonboy] 13/1/2009 13:44

Had a reply. The properties were sold in line with their December valuation.

New NAV next week.

[tiltonboy] 13/1/2009 13:02

I've e-mailed the company to ask when the valuation on the properties sold was taken.

Let's see if they come back.

[nickcduk] 13/1/2009 12:13

Also of interest will be how the securitised debt has been sold. If it solely linked to IRET then its feasible they could go and pick some up at a discount to Par. If they manage that they enhance their LTV ratio. More likely its been packaged up with other portfolios. If thats the case I don't expect holders will look to aggressively chase them for it. They would probably just ask them to rectify it within a certain time period.

[chopshs] 13/1/2009 12:01

Nick - agreed re sales timing. My point was that the buyer and purchase price will have been identified at the time of the Dec valuation.
I don't know the detail of the portfolio but agree they have less retail and more industrial than the IPD averages and this will be helpful to current performance on a relative basis.
If and when the LTV covenant is breached, I expect the securitised debt holders to look after their own interests. I can see that this could benefit shareholders invested at today's share price

[tiltonboy] 13/1/2009 10:46

nick,

I tend to agree with chopshs, especially given the yields that the properties were sold at, which suggests they may have needed to sell, rather than wanted to.

tiltonboy

[nickcduk] 13/1/2009 10:06

chopshs - I doubt properties will have been put on the market at end December. The sales were probably agreed a few weeks before. Remember that very little gets done towards the end of the month. As for them staying within LTV covenant. They will have collected end Dec rent which will have helped buffet the cash position (FFO is approx. 4.5m a quarter). IRET are also fortunate not to have too much exposure to central London office and retail. They should therefore have outperformed IPD. I think securitised holders will take a common sense approach to IRET position. If they were forced into disposals it would only end up bringing down the gearing position and crystalising the NAV.

[chopshs] 13/1/2009 09:50

Don't get too excited about 'in line with valuation' imo. This will almost certainly refer to the Dec valuation that has not yet been announced. The properties will have been under offer at end Dec and the valuers will have been advised of the prospective sale prices. Hence they're now selling in line with valuation...
Can't see them staying within the 50% LTV covenant myself (they may have just breached it) and will be very interesting to see how the securitised debt holders deal with this. I expect them to be aggressive.

[nickcduk] 13/1/2009 08:28

Nice to see a few more disposals being undertaken. They are probably not too far away from their LTV covenant of 50% so it makes sense to expect a few more as well. Nice to see that they are managing to sell at around last valuations. The 7.25m will cushion them from a further 3.5% fall in property valuations. I think another 20m or so in disposals should be enough for them to stay within covenants as we approach the bottom of the cycle. Shares look mis-priced relative to quoted REIT's which have higher gearing, lower dividends and more exposure to central london offices and retail. Looking to add but not in any rush as the shares are very unloved at present.

[skyship] 13/1/2009 07:49

2 disposals netting £7.25m - "...in line with valuation."

[kavnish] 06/12/2008 11:05

I have had a look at UKCM and seems to be a nice trade. One thing is the net yield number is not bad but given this market would expect this to fall further

IRET at 42% LTV is yielding 20% on a rebased dividend.

I like the lack of gearing at the moment in UKCM and this to me is equivalent to buying real estate yourself.

I maybe being greedy here but i have set a buy target at 40p which would equate to circa 15% , in reality i would start biting at the mid 40's

If it breaks the 50 p level any idea where the next support level is

IRET when it broke 40p fell straight down to the 20's on very little fundamental news change. This may follow a similar trend

[skyship] 01/12/2008 13:17

At the end of October we had some chat about UKCM; & I posted a recommendation for this totally ungeared property company on the JDT thread:



Well, they provided a rather attractive turn as they recovered back to 65p. I sold out on the rise, inc. the last tranche at just over 65p.

Well, what comes around goes around; and today its possible to buy in again @ 53.75p! At that level, on a 4 x 1.3125p dividend (annual 5.25p) they yield a mere 9.76%. So, I'm back in & given the opportunity will happily average down - as I did last time around....

[kavnish] 30/11/2008 22:27

Ok will check it out

[nickcduk] 26/11/2008 07:05

No one is expecting IERE dividend to be maintained. I think the covered part of their dividend equates to either 6 or 7p. If they paid that out they would be offering a 25% yield.

[kavnish] 25/11/2008 21:18

Nickduk , its not that i don't like IERE its the non cash covered element of the yield i have a problem with.

If this is incorrect then please point me in the right direction as I would be quite happy to re check my numbers

on the Allsops side yesit was a good one my partner and i picked up a couple of good units so lets see what the December auctions look like.

On the Empty property rates i think a good one but only applies to property with rateable value below 15k so I don't think any of the assets in the REITS will count as all much bigger.

If they extend the policy to all then definitely a good move for commercial property.

The refinancings are the key as some flex form the banks or SIV strucutres will really get these prices motoring but until then keep digesting the purchases

[skyship] 24/11/2008 11:04

Brown's speech to the CBI apparently signalled success on the empty rates issue in this afternoon's PBR.

[skyship] 22/11/2008 15:15

Nickduk - re the comm prop auctions, let's hope Allsopps do as well as they did in their recent residential auctions:



Kavnish - obviously I disagree on IERE - incidentally, the only Eastern European property is 1.7% in the Czech Republic! As to IRET - I don't see your delayed trades below 20p. Could you enlighten perhaps?