Informa Share Discussion Threads

[kenmill] 31/10/2008 15:59

25cent
If you seriously believe that a board, with almost 50% institutional shareholdings, does not ask for their view in such a situation then you obviously don't know how the market works. If you don't believe us ask anybody - brokers/ other investors etc. I have been an FD of a public company and I can assure you it is FACT. What fact is on your side ?

[25cent] 31/10/2008 14:41

Well you two keep talking it up meanwhile yet agin its down for INF,i expect a lot more of the same i.e massive overfalls compared to the ftse 250 on down days and then completly ignore any ftse250 rally.
Really just like this has been ever since the baord turned down 450p.
Target of 150p reamains on target.

[the_doctor] 31/10/2008 14:26

Well, you're the one that has been so bitter and angry!

[25cent] 31/10/2008 13:53

Again another mixed up idea in your head appears on the thread!

[the_doctor] 31/10/2008 13:45

Yeah right

Like I said, you're the one that lost money here, not me

[25cent] 31/10/2008 13:43

Like i said Doc what you think in your head is not necessary fact try and remember that before you pick a fight, because i have fact on my side you just have your deluded confused mixed up ideas on yours.

[the_doctor] 31/10/2008 13:41

Haha, so they didnt ask you.
Do you not think they maybe had a little chat with major shareholders!

Dear oh dear

[25cent] 31/10/2008 13:38

Sure In your confused head it was Doc , but in reality it was the baord that opted to turn down the offer, instead of putting it to the vote of the owners of the company ...i.e the shareholders..

Are you for real?
Inf payed 19 times operating profits for Datamonitor, or £502 million, what on earth are you talking about????
That seems a wise buy don't you think for a credit monitor company just before a massive credit crunch???????
exactly!
Your clearly out of your depth.

[the_doctor] 31/10/2008 13:35

"multiples of operating profit"

Forecast operating profit NOT historical!

The board is voted for by shareholders, they do what the major shareholders want. It WAS rejected by major shareholders.

[25cent] 31/10/2008 13:30

Doctor go away you imbecile.
How many times do you need to be told, it was 450p and the shareholders did not turn down the offer the greedy fat cat board did!

Don't you not even comprehend that multiples of operating profit are the industry normal yardsticks of value (or no value in this case) in takeovers?
APPARENTLY NOT!
You just make yourself look more fooolish by the post.

[the_doctor] 31/10/2008 13:11

"19 times operating profits"

that is meaningless alone, since that alone doesnt factor in the growth.
On a forward basis it wasnt so bad - although still not cheap

I've personally never denied it would drop. I've not lost a penny here.

However, IF 400p+ was such a good price, why did the insts not accept the offer?
There is only one reason and thats because they thought it will again be higher.
Thats been my point.
If you think it was the board's decision alone, you are ignorant

[25cent] 31/10/2008 12:51

Well i have lots of reason why my target on these is 150p far far to in-depth for your limited intellect to fathom so i will keep it really simple for you.

1,INF Massively overpaid at the very top of the market for Datamonit paying a whopping 19 times operating profits making any cost saving gained by the takeover utterly obsolete by overpaying in the fist place.

2 Massive Debt of 1.2 billion will have to be renegotiate when the mostly fixed rate arrangements expire, and refinance will be almost imposable to get on the same terms as in 2007 increasing costs.

3 INF's USA facing Omega Performance must be really struggling after all, its a consultancy advising banks on consumer credit management, this after the US sub-prime disaster???

4, Falling sales and falling margins are inevitable like i said weeks ago and the first admission came last week via RNS of this fact.
For Inf to suggest that they are recession proof is just plain daft, magazine subscriptions and conference venues are bound to be the first to see a slowdown in teh cooling economy.

Trading in Set OCT and NOV account for about 35% of INF's turnover if its showing falls in this time then i suspect that double digit falls will be the norm in leaner months.
I expect a warning in Januaray buy INF.

This business model is completely untested in a recession and i therefore see trouble ahead for INF and obviously those that understand the company a little deeper than you Ken agree hence why they have been dumping it everyday.

The shares would appear cheap trading at just 5.3 times 2007 PER however this takes no notice of the huge debt that will put huge pressure on the dodgy balance sheet.

To sum up i see continued sales warnings falling margins and higher interest payments meaning a forced sale of assets to bring the debt mountain under control.

Until investors have answers to the above questions then its going to remain in a deep downtrend and test the 150p that being my target and its long term moving average indicator on the chart since mid 2007.

You keep the 450p drum banging meanwhile the rest of world that understand this business will continue shorting it down to 150p

[kenmill] 31/10/2008 09:49

The valuation is based on normal p/es in normal times. The consortium, obviously also stupid, thought they could make a profit after paying 450p. The p/e is half the market, the dividend yield is double and the peg is 0.33. They have issued a trading statement saying they are in line with expectations. The price has been forced down, along with many other companies, because of forced selling and panic.
Now for your input. All you have said is the price is going down and predicting 150p. You have offered no argument to justify this apart from the fact that the price seemed to be going that way. Now it is reversing. Are you saying the market is now wrong because you think it should be 150p or (surely not!) did you just pluck 150p out of the air because it was a bit ahead of the direction the price was moving? What are your arguments for the company to be correctly valued at this price.
Don't just say because that is the price today because that would suggest the correct price last week was 182p and this week, with the same company, it is now worth 210p. The market does not correctly value the company at each minute - it is the median of the result of buying and selling for reasons that do not always reflect current value. Give your reasons for saying this is the correct value and show you understand the company.

[25cent] 31/10/2008 00:06

Yep and so far you have said its worth over 450p meanwhile the people that count says its worth £2.11.
Would you care to explain just how you come to this valuation.
So far I've been spot on with my prediction or are we all suppose not to mention that hey?
You keep talking the talk son the problem is the worlds not listening to your verbal garbage.
Its more than apparent by the share price that your indisputably wrong, moreover you've made yourself look stupid on this thread with your previous hopeless coments and i suspect you now feel embarrassed .

[kenmill] 29/10/2008 13:20

The Pru has added a further 800k+ to their holdings. They can see a bargain. Given there are no further institutional sales, this is beginning to look like hedge fund activity keeping this down. It will be intersting next year to see if the consortium returns - probably at a lower price. I wouldn't like to think the price is being kept down in preparation.

[kenmill] 24/10/2008 11:10

25cent
I would like to thank you for your massive contribution to the discussion on this company. Since the 450p bid was called off your input has been amazing. You have told an ignorant investment world that the directors are fat cat b*astards and the price is falling (the latter endlessly). Where would we be without you. Could you build on this invaluable service and actually give a view on the business, its prospects in its related fields and, particularly in relation to the trading statements and current economic situation ? We all await to share your superior knowledge that you seem to be shyly hiding, behind the mantra of "the share price is falling"

[anresu] 24/10/2008 08:40

Questor article in today's Telegraph.

[25cent] 23/10/2008 16:24

kenmill - 23 Oct'08 - 08:28 - 157 of 157


good news this morning - may even keep the share price above 150p !
23 October 2008



lol so please tell me just were your 450p price prediction has turned into 150p?
Or do you think that your me posting or something?
Yet again you two's pathetic posts and predictions look more stupid by the day.

unreal!

It only fell another 20p after your lastest pathetic post at 8.30 am.

Meanwhile ref the RNS-
What a shock sales are down! you two dont half set yoursels up to look idiots in your posts do you even have a grasp for this company?

[kenmill] 23/10/2008 08:28

good news this morning - may even keep the share price above 150p !
23 October 2008

Informa plc Interim Management Statement

Informa plc (the "Group") announces that trading remains strong. Consequently, the Board continues to expect the full year results to be in line with management's expectations reflecting the resilience and consistency of the business.

Whilst no business will be totally immune from the economic backdrop, our publishing businesses have continued to grow well. Our publishing sales year to date are up 10%. We are confident that renewal rates for our substantial academic business in the final quarter of 2008 will be as strong as they have been in previous years.

Across our other publishing and data products, we have also delivered growth particularly in healthcare with our innovative Citeline product growing year-on-year by 45%. There has been good growth in single copy sales at Datamonitor albeit there has been a slow down in the rate of growth amongst subscribers. However, strong management of the cost base is expected to result in a significantly improved profit performance over 2007.

In our events business 2008 year to date sales are up 9% and forward bookings on events remain strong for the rest of the year and into 2009. It is likely that we will run fewer events in total this year but action has been taken to protect the bottom line by managing the cost base. As expected our largest events remain resilient with notable highlights over the past three months including The Monaco Yacht Show, Cityscape Dubai and SuperReturn Asia, with revenue up 11%, 38% and 66% respectively.

Year-on-year, trading across our PI business remains largely unchanged. Sales are marginally down year to date by 1% but cost initiatives taken earlier in the year have increased the PI margin. The full year result should also benefit from the stronger US dollar.

With over 40% of our overall profits denominated in US dollars, if the recent strengthening against sterling is maintained throughout 2009 it will materially increase our reported results on a like for like basis.

The resilience of our business combined with our strong cash conversion gives comfortable headroom within our bank facilities. As previously indicated our covenant test levels tighten in 2009. However, the strength of our cash flows and the breadth of our asset portfolio across different verticals and geographies gives us confidence that we will manage the business in 2009 to ensure that current headroom levels, or better, are maintained.

As in previous years, the Group expects to issue a further trading update in mid-December before entering its pre-close period.

[kenmill] 22/10/2008 14:26

The other half of the purchases by the Pru and L & G has been declared. Standard Life have announced a reduction in their holding of 4,312,575. They still hold over 25 million and the bulk has been transferred to other institutions. The rest have contributed to the drop.
the_doctor
I think you should re-read the last sentence of your post 147. You have been tempted again!

[the_doctor] 22/10/2008 12:18

Do you really not think the board perhaps check with major shareholders

[25cent] 22/10/2008 12:15

LOL,for the 100th time doc, you never know it may sink in sooner or later.
IT WAS THE BOARD THAT REJECTED THE OFFER AND NOT SHAREHOLDERS.
It was never put to the shareholders, do you undertstand that? hey? shall i break it down some more so that you grasp it? Are you ok with that or do you need it explaining again?
Apparently the baord value this at 500p per share as against eveyone else in the world saying its worth 208p-207p-206p- by the time you read this maybe even 203p.
Still easy to have high valuations when your getting paid 350k a year i guess.

[the_doctor] 22/10/2008 11:29

It was never my prediction you thick tw@t - I've always said it would collapse.
Simply that institutions would only have rejected the offer if they thought they could at some point get more.

[25cent] 22/10/2008 11:22

Yet again today you can see people rushing to buy this "undervalued share" 150p within the next 2 weeks i reckon.
Or maybe Docs and kens 450p or higher prediction? you guess folks LOL