Indivior Share Discussion Threads

[tsmith2] 25/11/2018 09:53

and the company has already made a provision of that much...

[tsmith2] 25/11/2018 09:53

that's bullocks...Litigation UpdateThe Group carries a provision for investigative and antitrust litigation matters of $438m. Substantially all of the provision relates to the U.S. Department of Justice investigation. The Group is in advanced discussions with the Department of Justice about a possible resolution to its investigations, although it cannot predict with any certainty whether, when, or at what cost it will reach an ultimate resolution.It's a provision for many matters only one of them being Dr Reddy..#desperate

[pwhite73] 25/11/2018 09:22

Yes it is tempting but within the next few weeks Dr Reddy's will confirm if it is to start selling its generic drug. If this announcement is made the stock will plunge again. Furthermore as per the Q3 results the company will incur legal costs of $438m and is anticipating this would be material higher if they were to lose the case against Dr Reddy's which they have. You see by taking legal action against Dr Reddy's they have prevented Dr Reddy's from selling their generic drug and now have to compensating them for loss of sales, profit, reputation and legal costs.

[tsmith2] 23/11/2018 15:54

shown good strength today, strength into finish would be bullish.tempted

[dealy] 23/11/2018 09:39

the company has a proven track record of bringing drugs to market. it has net cash and will generate significant cash flow this year. it is worth substantially more than 750m gbp

[adrian j boris] 23/11/2018 08:18

Oliver Haill
WebFG News
23 Nov, 2018 07:38 23 Nov, 2018 07:38
Indivior gets small dose of pain relief from Canada


As it battles a legal headache in the US, Indivior had some good news north of the border on Friday, as where regulators approved its new long-lasting treatment for opioid addiction.


Health Canada gave the green light to Sublocade, an extended-release buprenorphine injection, for the management of moderate to severe opioid use disorder in adults.

Canada saw 3,996 and 3,005 apparent opioid-related deaths in 2017 and 2016, with at least 1,036 in the first quarter of 2018, according to a special advisory committee on the 'epidemic of opioid overdoses'.


Indivior has made much slower progress with Sublocade than hoped. Since being approved in the US last December and launched at the beginning of March, the company has only sold $5m of the drug in the US, including $3m in the third quarter of 2018.

[pwhite73] 23/11/2018 08:00

RNS out but it is worthless. Investors should expect a string of vacuous RNS announcements over the next few months to try and mitigate against the US court decision and boost a flagging share price.

[buywell3] 23/11/2018 01:21

What a bunch of tw@ts that took this to 500p in 2018

And that was after the chances of USA legal actions were known

Amazing the amount of investors funds that have been squandered

Do some still buying thinking that a small company based outside the USA in the UK is going to win a ruling in their favor in American courts ?

Averaging down is not a wise thing when the facts are very much V the reality of the situation

USA BIG PHARMA is running the show



Buyers of this share are taking on the USA BIG PHARMA lobby in the states ... and the FDA and other regulatory USA bodies

Who is going to win ?

[kirk 6] 22/11/2018 16:51

Good day considering markets down this will be a winner tomorrow

[pwhite73] 22/11/2018 14:08

The brokers would now be given the task of flogging the stock ahead of the next fund raise.

[ariane] 22/11/2018 12:25

LOOKS LIKE BROKERS HAVE DRAWN A LINE IN THE SAND

100p seems tobe the support

[tsmith2] 22/11/2018 12:21

the point is the brokers are very very cautious and discounting worse case scenarioso risk v upside potentially very attractive given current valuation etc

[tsmith2] 22/11/2018 12:20

Numis kept its 'buy' rating on the shares but noted that it retained its recommendation on the basis of a sum-of-the-parts analysis "that assigns zero value to Suboxone in the US,Zero value to Suboxone..want to see how this afternoon shapes up but think these have found/put in a bottom

[adrian j boris] 22/11/2018 10:11

Broker tips: NMC Health, Indivior, British Land
british land broadgate

UAE healthcare provider NMC Health surged on Wednesday as JPMorgan Cazenove said it continues to be a strong growth story thanks to a mix of organic initiatives and aggressive M&A activity and bumped the stock up to 'overweight' from 'neutral', hiking the price target to 4,265p from 3,450p

The bank noted that NMC has deployed $472m on 14 transactions since the beginning of the year and spent a total of about $2bn on acquisitions over the last three years.

"Without factoring in any new M&A activity, its medium-term outlook looks impressive with net earnings growing at a three-year compound annual growth rate of 36% between 2017 and 2020 on our numbers," it said.

JPM attributed the price target increase to upgraded forecasts and a change to the relative valuation method, as it ow values the healthcare and distribution business separately.

It estimated that between its cash balance as of H1 2018, free cash flow generation and additional debt, NMC could deploy another $1bn on M&A activity over the next 18 months.

"We expect M&A activity to target general healthcare facilities when attractive propositions arise, but also underserved services such as IVF, LT Care, Cosmetic, Paediatric, Oncology, Mental Health, and Rehabilitation."

Analysts said Indivior will need to take significant action to reduce the cost base and address its debt arrangements after losing a key US court decision.

Analysts including RBC Capital Markets and Numis sent notes to clients on Wednesday after the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit annulled an injunction that was preventing generic drugmaker Dr Reddy's Laboratories from selling its copycat version of Indivior's Suboxone Film. It is now seen as highly likely that Reddy's will launch "at risk" of Indivior's patents with its generic version of Suboxone Film.

RBC Capital Markets said it was surprised by the decision after taking expert advice on the topic. "Whilst we expect the shares will recover somewhat from the lows, buyers will need to be brave given the risk of follow-on generic launches and a potential DoJ outcome before any inflection point likely for Sublocade."

RBC had foreseen a "window" for Indivior to convert Suboxone Film users to its recently launched monthly treatment, Sublocade, but only if the Film market remained closed to generics for a while longer.

"This window now appears to be closing and think we should be looking to more prudent scenarios. Whilst our forecasts suggest the company should emerge, in time, to a growth asset this is based upon the Sublocade improving, which we would suggest some caution with as the forecast risk remains high."

RBC downgraded its rating to 'sector perform' from 'outperform' and slashed its revenue estimates around 43% in the coming 2019 and 2020 financial years. However, it predicted management will step up cost-saving measures ahead of those already guided, with an "extra $75m not impossible...which keeps the business at a broadly breakeven level in FY19E".

Broker Numis had three key considerations: how much a Reddy's generic film would take market share from the 40% currently held by other generic tablets; whether the branded Suboxone film, which is thought to be stronger, can retain market share, or if Indivior launches an authorised generic; and whether a reduction in pricing and spend on dailies would free up budget for payers to spend on Sublocade.

Numis kept its 'buy' rating on the shares but noted that it retained its recommendation on the basis of a sum-of-the-parts analysis "that assigns zero value to Suboxone in the US, although do caution that the settlement with the Department of Justice remains outstanding and the shares will remain volatile with highly binary events ahead and balance sheet concerns becoming more pressing".

[adrian j boris] 22/11/2018 09:52

YES there is cash but as others have mentioned,it has debt obligations and look at those current liabilities

not a share for me,its bad enough with blue chips these days but aleast i get a dividend

[waldron] 22/11/2018 09:44

Indivior hit hard as generic Suboxone defence crumbles

Indivior hit hard as generic Suboxone defence crumbles
Phil TaylorPhil Taylor
November 22, 2018

Indivior has suffered a critical defeat in the US courts for opioid addiction product Suboxone Film, opening the door to generic competition and sparking a run on its shares.

The UK company’s attempt to block a generic version of Suboxone Film (sublingual buprenorphine/naloxone) developed by India’s Dr Reddy’s Laboratories has been rejected by an appeals court, upholding an earlier ruling of non-infringement of a key patent on the brand.

Dr Reddy’s said in a statement that it plans to resume the roll out of the generic, which was approved by the FDA in June, “as soon as permitted,” and its expected to hit the ground running now as the restraining did not prevent commercial manufacturing of the product.

The injunction was formally lifted today, although Indivior said a launch would depend on the appeals court formally returning the verdict to the lower court. The company lost no time in putting out a statement suggesting launch by Dr Reddy’s would be ‘at risk’, as there is still outstanding patent litigation involving other patents on Suboxone.

Shares in Indivior have fallen by more than 50% in the wake of the court ruling, reflecting the huge importance of the product to its business. Sales of Suboxone made up the bulk of the company’s $235m in third-quarter revenue, which was down 11% on the same period of 2017.

Even though Dr Reddy’s generic was only available for a very short time it ate into Indivior’s market share rapidly.

Indivior had been guiding on sales of $990 million to $1.02 billion for the full year, and is sticking to that guidance until a launch in 2018 is certain, saying “the magnitude of the risk will depend upon the timing of generic entry.” Analysts have suggested that it could lose up to 80% of sales “within a matter of months.”

The UK firm’s CEO, Shaun Thaxter, said the company was “surprised and disappointed” by the outcome of the appeal and intends to file a petition “for both panel rehearing and rehearing en banc of the ruling vacating the [preliminary injunction].”

Indivior has been trying to diversify and reduce its reliance on Suboxone, and took a step towards that goal in the summer after winning FDA approval for schizophrenia drug Perseris, a monthly depot formulation of the atypical antipsychotic risperidone that it thinks could become a $200-$300 million product.

It also claimed a US approval late last year for Sublocade, a long-acting formulation of buprenorphine that it hopes will step into Suboxone’s shoes. Indivior predicted at Sublocade’s launch that the new product could make up to $1 billion at peak, but so far take-up has been slow.

Sales were just $3 million in the third quarter and have taken its total tally since launch to $5 million, putting it a long way off analyst projections of $26 million for 2018 as a whole.

It’s notable that when Perseris was approved Indivior didn’t move ahead with a quick launch, and said it may delay that beyond the fourth quarter – with analysts suggesting it wanted to concentrate its commercial efforts behind Sublocade. As it happens, Perseris was officially launched on Monday, just ahead of the Suboxone appeal announcement.





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[waldron] 22/11/2018 09:39

A pill is being developed to stop people craving alcohol, in what could spell an end to the habit of having a bottle of wine with dinner. Scientists in Hull are reaching the final stages of testing the pill, which could hit the market in 2020. The drug, which is being created by FTSE 250-listed company Indivior, works by surpassing the buzz that people feel when they have an alcoholic drink. The pill – called Arbaclofen Placarbil – will help alcoholics get their drinking under control. But Indivior is aiming the pill at people who have a few glasses of wine every night and may not recognise they have a problem with alcohol dependency. An estimated 124 million people across the world are thought to be alcohol dependent. Health officials have warned repeatedly that many middle-class professionals are in denial about their alcohol consumption.

[waldron] 22/11/2018 09:14

"We are continuing to pursue the appeal of the U.S. District Court for the District of Delaware's non-infringement decision related to U.S. patents 8,603,514 and 8,017,150, as well as litigating our recently listed Orange Book patents for SUBOXONE(R) Film.

"While we ultimately believe in the strength of our patent portfolio, we acknowledge that the Company faces challenges in the intervening period resulting from a potential material and rapid loss of market share to generic buprenorphine/naloxone sublingual film competition, including reduced earnings and cash flow."

As the current leading provider of buprenorphine-based medication-assisted treatment (BMAT) in the U.S., Indivior is committed to continuing to realize its Vision that all patients around the world have access to evidence-based treatment for the chronic condition and co-occurring disorders of addiction. The Company is in advanced stages of contingency planning. In light of the timing of this judgement, we will now undertake a full review of our plans and will update the market on the Company's path forward as soon as practicable.

[waldron] 22/11/2018 09:13

Indivior's FY 2018 guidance for net revenue of $990-$1,020m and net income of $230-255m, which was issued on September 26th and confirmed on November 1st, was based on no material changes in current market conditions in the U.S. As such, the Company's current FY 2018 guidance remains valid unless there is certainty of generic buprenorphine/naloxone sublingual film entry in 2018, in which case there would be risk to FY 2018 guidance. The magnitude of the risk will depend upon the timing of any generic entry.

[waldron] 22/11/2018 09:08

If we accept that liquide cash is still available, we might well ask how long will it last.



Bearing in mind what cost cuts might be neccessary

I believe we might expect further information by rns and media in the coming weeks
to clarify situation

In the meantime major investors are still holding fast and will no have their eye on
fast cash depletion

[tsmith2] 22/11/2018 08:46

That's even before look at pipeline, sales, valuation of pharmacy's etc etc

[tsmith2] 22/11/2018 08:41

What bit of net cash dot you understand?

[pwhite73] 22/11/2018 08:33

Yes but 80% of all that money is coming from Suboxone. What you need to do is reduce those figures by 80% going forward, look at their debt obligations and the cost of their operations. When you have done this then you can come back and tell me I'm talking bullocks.

[tsmith2] 22/11/2018 08:32

Want to see bid firmly over 102p for a decent period tooBut I think there was a large holding that was being liquidated and it's been snapped up