Iog Share Discussion Threads

[bountyhunter] 06/7/2022 12:41

Don't PMG only get 15% of 3,750 boepd - according to a poster on the PMG thread their RNS today was slightly misleading in not mentioning that?
Which of course makes IOG look even more undervalued by comparison, although that's ignoring debt.

[wskill] 06/7/2022 10:43

good update from PMG today looking fine but only one 3rd of IOG production and market cap of £56m with Southwark online this year we are still well undervalued.

[maxidi] 06/7/2022 09:16

When all is said and done, all that matters is the price of IOG!
66p will do nicely but a quid would be a lot better....

[itsriskythat] 06/7/2022 09:09

Just to point out that finnCap reduced their 2022 price target from 200p per therm when NBP price dived in early May and currently sticking with a lower price of 125p per therm. At some point finnCap will have to raise their 125p per therm but to what price is the question.

[maxidi] 06/7/2022 08:58

Finncap new price target 66p 7 Mar '22 There is a huge difference between what brokers are using for NBP, Finncap 22=200p 23=100p, Arden is using 120p & 80p.

[1senn] 06/7/2022 08:51

There target is what?

[itsriskythat] 06/7/2022 08:44

"Our estimates and price target remain unchanged, but with production starting H2 at the top end of the guidance range, alongside very strong UK forward gas prices and no hedging, there is clearly upside potential to our estimates and valuation. After some early teething problems, the Saturn Banks gas development is starting to hit its stride." From finnCap

[itsriskythat] 06/7/2022 08:41

Morning note out on IOG by finnCap

[marvelman] 06/7/2022 08:30

Can we have a Government like Norway please...can we even have a Government ...please

[xxnjr] 05/7/2022 22:38

Ft latest "Norway’s government has intervened to end a strike by oil and gas workers that threatened to slash production at a time when Europe is scrambling for supplies to offset cuts to Russian output.

Labour minister Marte Mjøs Persen summoned oil companies and workers late on Tuesday and announced the industrial action had been brought to an end....."

[xxnjr] 05/7/2022 22:07

OfficerD - I keep looking but haven't found anything on live intraday NBP pricing so just rely on BH's link in the header above, as per his 1481. And from BH's other link above

"The Company has executed a new gas sales agreement ("GSA") with BP Gas Marketing Limited ("BPGM"). This covers its equity gas from all of the Saturn Banks Phase 1 fields (Blythe, Elgood, Southwark), plus the Nailsworth and Elland fields which are part of Phase 2, on a long-term basis with break clauses after September 2023. The GSA replaces the gas sales agreement originally signed with BPGM in February 2014, which covered the Blythe field only, on improved terms for the Company.

Under this GSA, gas will be sold on a day-ahead daily nomination basis at a price linked to the National Balancing Point (NBP, the UK traded gas benchmark)."

Have just found this which has an end of day energy pricing commentary which maybe of interest

[bountyhunter] 05/7/2022 18:01

Norway strikes threaten to cut off gas supplies to UK within days

Europe’s energy crisis intensifies as Equinor begins shutting down oil and gas fields

[officerdigby] 05/7/2022 15:52

Xxnjr - we can only get NBP day after - literally after the day!.No way to see it intraday without some paid for service right?

[bountyhunter] 05/7/2022 14:13

Not far off my 36p break even now. If I didn't have so many already I'd top up again following the recent healthy update!

[tomboyb] 05/7/2022 14:08

Goldman raise TTF #gas forecast to €153 for Q3 -

$260 per barrel of oil equivalent -

Nutx -

[tomboyb] 05/7/2022 14:01

Prepare for gas rationing this winter, factories told
National Grid warns it may have to impose ‘involuntary’ restrictions on supplies

[alxo82] 05/7/2022 13:58

If you do the math with the Phase 1 production, you will see that the company will be able to pay the bond in full next year while commiting to develop Nailsworth and, afterwards, Goddard. Royalties will reach the £91m maximum in 2024 when the company will benefit its 50% in full for the remaining 3/4 years of the Phase 1. In my calculations the company will be able to generate a net income between 2022 and 2023 superior to its market cap today, even under conservative assumptions. The hydraulically stimulated wells in Southwark may bring us a big, happy surprise with a dramatic increase in production for 2023. Also, the opex is quite low compared to other aging platforms and infrastructure and, IMO, it could be even lowered when the chemical injection fault is finally resolved between Q3 and Q4.

I think a lot of you forget about the CER's support to IOG. Their mutual agreement means that IOG can play CER's financial strength in its favour when entering into new fields, with IOG as operator. I have heard that IOG and CER have already assessed some investment that they have decided to discard, but that may not be the case for ever.

Hence, IOG will benefit from the crazy gas prices in UK, without the risk of additional taxes (thanks Rishi), rapidly growing revenue, low-cost production and the ability of exploring inorganic growth through the association with CER.

[xxnjr] 05/7/2022 13:11

314p/therm is for the 1 month future price tidy 2?

IOG sell at around the next day UK NBP price, currently a very strong 265p/therm, up from 215p yesterday and around 150p to 165p last week. Was gonna post something on Equinor but you got there first :) but I'll add this from the FT which will be additional Equinor outage from later on today if the union do what they say.

"The Lederne union notified that its members would extend the strike to three more production sites — Heidrun, Kristin and Aasta Hansteen — from late on Tuesday, meaning that the disruption may grow by 333,000 boe per day, of which 264,000 boe per day is natural gas.

Every little helps.

[tidy 2] 05/7/2022 11:48

UK natural gas futures rose to above the 300-pence-a-therm mark, the highest in five months, as Norway's Equinor started a shutdown of three oil and gas fields after workers went on strike demanding wage hikes. Oil and gas output will be reduced by 89,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), of which gas output makes up 27,500 boepd, Equinor reiterated on Tuesday. Norway is the world's third-largest exporter of natural gas and the UK's primary gas supplier, exacerbating concerns about disrupted shipments in an already highly tight market. Still, the Norwegian government approved higher production from the Troll, Gina Krog, Duva, Oseberg, Asgard and Mikkel fields to maintain record exports. Gazprom decided to limit flows in the main Nord Stream pipeline to just 40% of its capacity, significantly raising the risk of a natural gas shortage in Europe by next winter.https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas

[tidy 2] 05/7/2022 10:47

Check the U.K. gas spot. 314p/therm up 11% a further today.

[officerdigby] 05/7/2022 10:45

Is a profit a profit. When it is used to pay off a bond?Company borrows money to develop O&G play. Luckily they find oil.But then levy comes in asa producing?b4 debt repaid? Debt has interest! Needs sorting out!

[marvelman] 05/7/2022 09:50

Just checked...matures 2024 but callable from September 2022