Imperial Brands Share Discussion Threads

[minerve 2] 08/10/2020 11:15

Debt actually is expected to reduce by approximately £1Bn a year with the current dividend in place and Capex around £300M. The figures add up IMO.

If debt is lowered too much then PE and hostile bids will be more attractive to those on the dark side. I'd prefer to keep my holding at c20% FCF to share price

[spud] 08/10/2020 11:10

Exactly!

Don't you just love the throwaway comments from non invested thread surfers?

spud

[daneswooddynamo] 08/10/2020 11:06

There will have to be a substantial deterioration in core tobacco sales for a further divi cut. The recent cut enables half a billion or so debt reduction per annum on current numbers

[kiwi2007] 08/10/2020 10:49

Certainly nothing to get excited about. I'm expecting a further cut in the dividend either this year or next to reduce debt.

[irenekent] 08/10/2020 08:13

First time in a long time that my new shares from re-invested dividend are showing an up-tick in value. I think spud has got the situation sussed.

[dcarn] 08/10/2020 07:56

I have admit i'm happy with that, given the current global situation.

[daneswooddynamo] 08/10/2020 07:41

We are at the point of forgetting where it has come down from and starting to focus on where it will recover to. The stub investors are going to make the money

[spud] 08/10/2020 07:33

A whole new confident statement, worlds apart from the previous incumbent. I think the Market will approve! Well done Sweep:

"In my first three months as CEO I have focused on reviewing our strategy, engaging with employees, and visiting as many of our key markets as possible. I have been struck by the energy and passion of my colleagues, which increases my confidence in our ability to deliver a stronger performance in the years ahead.

Full Year Trading Update

The tobacco business has continued to perform well despite an uncertain and disrupted trading environment. We have experienced some COVID-related changes in consumer behaviour with increased overall demand against our expectations, as consumers appear to have allocated more of their spend to tobacco, as well as some demand shifts between different markets and channels. This has resulted in better than expected volumes, driven by improved volume trends in several key European markets and in the US. These positive trends have helped to offset relatively weaker market volumes in the duty free channel and in some traditional summer tourist destinations, where reduced travel has impacted demand. Overall, we expect tobacco net revenue to increase by around 1% at constant currency.

The focus in NGP has been on improving performance, returns and capabilities. As previously announced, we have significantly reduced investment while maintaining a range of options for future growth. Trading has been disappointing, albeit in line with our revised expectations with the level of underlying losses reduced in the second half as we curtailed expenditure. NGP net revenue is expected to be around 30% lower than last year at constant currencies.

Group net revenue performance is slightly ahead of the guidance provided at our half year results, and is expected to be broadly flat on last year at constant currencies. However, as highlighted in our half year results, we have incurred some additional manufacturing costs caused by the COVID-related restrictions. In addition, given the ongoing COVID-related uncertainties, we have increased our provisions, mainly in respect of stock and debtor positions. As a result, we expect constant currency earnings per share will be down by around 6%, in line with current market expectations.

At the year-end closing rates, foreign exchange translation was a c. 1% headwind to full year earnings per share.

Cash

We expect underlying cash conversion will be ahead of our original expectations driven by a continued focus on all aspects of cash management, with some additional upside at Logista due to some COVID-related changes in the timing of excise duty payments. Cash generation has also benefited from lower capex and restructuring charges as a result of some COVID-related delays in certain cost optimisation projects, which we now expect to complete in FY21. The divestment of the Premium Cigars business is on track to complete on 29 October with the second non-refundable down payment of EUR85.7m having been received in line with our recent announcement.

spud

[lendmeafiver] 07/10/2020 21:51

You get some funny ones on here, anyway looking forward to tomorrow’s update, maybe first input from new CEO.

[minerve 2] 07/10/2020 17:56

Well, I'm expecting generally resilient sales but with continued poor performance in Duty Free.

[lendmeafiver] 07/10/2020 17:47

What we expecting tomorrow? Flat sales or weakening in traditional tobacco due to covid?

[minerve 2] 07/10/2020 17:32

Philip Morris rallies after Citi tips earnings beat next week

[spud] 06/10/2020 09:25

Crack 1400p then on to 1575p.spud

[minerve 2] 05/10/2020 12:20

meijiman

Good advice. NEVER buy from a PE float. Don't play their dirty little game. You can guarantee that, no matter how attractive it looks, if there was any meat on the bone PE have had 95% of it and they are giving you the remaining 5% encumbered with debt and eroded tangible/intangible assets.

IMO & DYOR

[ccraig69] 05/10/2020 12:15

You mean it might become smoking hot

[meijiman] 05/10/2020 12:13

Private Equity...cash rich outfits that buy up companies and hope to float them on public markets loaded with debt.
Top tip is never to buy in a float where the vendor is a private equity firm.

[minerve 2] 05/10/2020 11:45

Personally I think ESG is great for tobacco stocks. Let it continue.

You generally buy tobacco stocks for income. If the tobacco stock can sell enough to generate a healthy dividend and buy back shares then let the ESG movement gain strength because as the share price falls our return on equity increases. I'm not selling tobacco - I'm here to the end. It's an income stock for me. I hope that being a sin stock it puts PE off - BECAUSE THEY WOULD WANT TO SELL BACK ONTO THE MARKET AT SOME POINT.

I'm sick of PE scum buying all the good opportunities. There are not that many left for the small investor.

[spud] 05/10/2020 11:32

Also says that that sentiment could change very quickly and those that are underweight in these Sin Stocks, could cover their backs rapidly by buying back in.

As I've always pontificated, fads are just that - Fads! Value will always win out.

spud

[kiwi2007] 05/10/2020 02:33

Basically says - everyone loves ESG...no investors or fund loves tobacco (and perhaps never will).. they may possibly be taken private.

[kiwi2007] 04/10/2020 03:31

IrenKent - Trading statement due this Thursday. Should give us a clue about how bad it's been and what he'll have to do to improve things.

[dmore2] 01/10/2020 15:03

Got divi today, I put in a complaint with lloyds, they claim to have got paid late yesterday.:S