Imperial Brands Share Discussion Threads

[philanderer] 24/11/2017 13:16

24th nov Goldmans conviction buy tp 3770p

[irenekent] 22/11/2017 09:56

A text book double bottom - I just dread the capital gains hit if JT take them over. Got to be worth £50 per share.

[philanderer] 21/11/2017 20:34

Market report: Incoming Japan Tobacco boss sparks talk of Imperial Brands takeover


Imperial Brandspulled off a two-year low after Japan Tobacco’s incoming wheeler dealer chief executive reignited takeover talk by admitting that he is on the hunt for deals, no matter the size.

JT’s incoming boss Masamichi Terabatake, who has a penchant for deal-making, said the firm will reverse the current chief executive’s preference for smaller bolt-ons, paving the way for a mega deal for Imperial that would create the second-largest tobacco firm in the world by market share.

The FTSE 100 firm is the most obvious solution for a JT spending spree given its exposure to markets in the US, Middle East and Africa, Jefferies analyst Owen Bennett argued.

A deal is made even more enticing by Imperial recently stepping up its investment in vaping to claw back lost ground on bigger peers British American Tobacco and Philip Morris International, which is also snapping up JT’s share of the alternative tobacco market in its own back yard.

The City lapped up the prospect of a huge tobacco consolidation play to lift Imperial 103p higher to £31.30.

[philanderer] 21/11/2017 13:29

Yep, Jefferies banging on about JT..

[minerve] 21/11/2017 12:21

New CEO at Japan Tobacco with more of a pro acquisitions agenda than the previous.

Same old.

[jrphoenixw2] 21/11/2017 11:26

I looked too, 1-2hrs ago, couldn't find any relevant news out.
I'll be watching the volume with interest, it's been getting progressively lower this past week or so.

Vol/30-day average vol
Mon 13-Nov 3.14/2.19mm=143%
14th 2.68/2.22=121%
15th 1.79/2.26=79%
16th 1.74/2.25=77%
17th 1.40/2.25=62%
Mon 18-Nov 1.3/2.24=58%

a/o 11.20am Google/Finance indicates current volume as 1.93M/2.25M. Nice, rising on strong volume, let's see how it ends the session.

a/o 12.15pm mid-point on the day's session = 2.50M/2.25M
I also see on the chart on Google there was a 450k volume 2-minute candle at 9.45am.

[philanderer] 21/11/2017 10:41

ACTION, only a guess... can't find any broker notes out that would have moved it today.

[action] 21/11/2017 10:04

PhilI keep my finger crossed. I hope u r right .

[philanderer] 21/11/2017 09:57

andy, could be that takeover gossip doing the rounds again ? .. hopefully ;-)

[andyj] 21/11/2017 09:54

This look interesting, anyone know why?

[essentialinvestor] 18/11/2017 10:14

That makes no reference to the technology change with the arrival
of new generation tobacco products.

Everytime Woodford comments on underperformance, the company line appears
sppesrs strikingly similar.

Just look at his comments on CPI, and then look at the current share price.

[jrphoenixw2] 18/11/2017 06:38

Me and Neil Woodford lol -

He has a large position in his Equity Income fund. He writes monthly reports on his various funds with highlights. The latest issued yesterday has this to say on IMB.

'Less positively, Imperial Brands detracted from performance, but it is difficult to explain why, other than the shares are currently out of favour. From a fundamental perspective, Imperial Brands continues to be a business which should deliver attractive and sustainable long-term growth, as it has done consistently throughout its history as a quoted, independent business. The chart below clearly illustrates that Imperial Brands has been a spectacularly good long-term investment, with share price performance being underpinned by strong and dependable growth in cash flow, earnings and dividend.

Obviously, as we all know, past performance is not necessarily a reliable guide to the future, but from our perspective, the investment case has not changed dramatically. What has changed recently, is the stock market’s level of interest in the investment case – it simply does not fit with the current market zeitgeist, and consequently, its share price has declined by almost 20% over the last twelve months. Interestingly, although the impact of cumulative compound growth makes it difficult to discern in the chart, there have only been two occasions since 1996 when the 12-month share price performance has been more negative than it is at the moment – during the dotcom bubble of 1999-2000 and during the financial crisis of 2008-09.

[chart]

As a result of the recent share price performance, Imperial Brands has revisited valuation territory that we haven’t seen in many years. The shares currently yield more than 6% which, for such a cash generative business with a long track record of delivering consistent growth, just looks like the wrong price. On a 5-year rolling basis, the shares have never delivered a negative return – clear evidence that, although fundamentals may not always be rewarded over short time periods, over more sensible time frames, they are all that matter. We remain very attracted to the long-term fundamental investment case and added to the position at these very appealing and unjustified share price levels.'

[jrphoenixw2] 17/11/2017 19:28

It might be time to pick up some more. Not that I was looking really, but unless there's a solid reason for this drift down, is it more than sector rotation, or... ?

[philanderer] 17/11/2017 16:38

Jefferies. BUY. tp. 3600p

Reiterates

[jrphoenixw2] 16/11/2017 15:57

An article from 7-Nov I came upon today:

'Tobacco Firm Imperial Undervalued Despite Dividend Rise.
Imperial's strong brand presence in Europe could help its move into the vapour-releasing heated tobacco industry'


- Another positive name-check at Morningstar from 6-Nov:

[philanderer] 15/11/2017 17:07

Oh well spoke to soon ... , xd in the morning for 59.5p

[philanderer] 15/11/2017 14:22

Only one of mine heading in the right direction today .

[essentialinvestor] 14/11/2017 13:53

What I might also question is the "ease" of launching a heat not burn product.

PM have invested 10"s of millions developing IQOS,
unsure of BATS development spend in this area.


In our words, it's not easy imv.

[essentialinvestor] 14/11/2017 12:00

Can't comment on the technicals, on fundamentals a lot
of the weakness centers around the lack(currently) of a heat not burn product imv.
Mentioned this a couple of times previously.

Would also be interested to see any updates on BLu's share of the UK vaping
market, as all I tend to see is the BATS vape devise being used.

No directors buying post results.

[andyj] 14/11/2017 11:20

If it breaks 30 then institutional investors will stay well clear of a powerful downtrend, whatever the fundamentals. Still a chance it holds...

[philanderer] 14/11/2017 10:23

You just know that this is going sub 3000p ;-)

Holding tight.

[philanderer] 14/11/2017 10:13

14th nov JP Morgan Caz 'neutral' tp 3275p up from 3230p