Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[chadders] 05/4/2018 15:06

money maker1, stellar in as much as better than expectations..whatever that is. Subjective but we all know it when we see it.

[money maker1] 05/4/2018 15:06

I think we have to accept there will be some drop outs from the active Lupuzor Phase 3 arm, perhaps 15% drop out (Benlysta Phase 3 had 23%).

On that basis the maximum % of active Lupuzor patients experiencing benefit could be no more than 100% - 15% = 85%.

If say 45% of placebo patients are classed as responders (it was 38% in our Phase 2b, and 38% in Benlysta's Phase 3) that would make our maximum attainable benefit compared to placebo 85% - 45% = +40% (4x greater than Benlysta's 10%); or perhaps +45% if we assume +40% (instead of +45%) placebo response.

I think anything over +20% benefit over placebo for Lupuzor would be 'stellar', over 30% would be 'ultra stellar' and over '40% 'beyond our wildest dreams' (and would require a very low drop out rate or very low placebo response). Even +20% benefit would be 2x what Benlysta achieved.

I think Prof BB said he thought there is a good chance everyone on the active drug who does not drop out could also be a responder.

[l0ngterm] 05/4/2018 15:03

I would normally say Fair play, but the deramping and negativity to push the share down for your own strategic and financial gain (17 million sell off etc. ) overshadowed any skill that you could have demonstrated. iMHO.But well done, hope anyone who sold yesterday has learned.

[opodio] 05/4/2018 15:02

Ham and squire i can grant you a call option over my shares exercisable at 600p next week

[qazwsxedc69] 05/4/2018 15:01

squiresquire - you have bought back in, even though you have been squawking like a schoolgirl that you are convinced there will be a re-trace to 125?

So were you lying then, or are you lying/being an idiot now?

Both are entirely possible of course.

[flavio_monteiro] 05/4/2018 15:00

MASTER TRADER squiresquire....Looking for 125p in the next two days and trying to SCARE EXISTING HOLDERS now back in...after the depramping from Squire now comes the ramping!!!! LOST ALL CREDIBILITY


squiresquire5 Apr ‘18 - 14:49 - 23168 of 23171
0 0 0
Back in now with buys averaging 165, so 19p benefit from sale over 15k.

squiresquire - 05 Apr 2018 - 07:51:23 - 23059 of 23175 IMMUPHARMA - IN FINAL PHASE 3 LUPUS TRIAL TARGETING BLOCKBUSTER ($1bn+) REVENUES - IMM
we should see today how many of the 17 million have yet to be sold. Next level is the 130 - 135p area if selling continues, which i think it will.


squiresquire - 05 Apr 2018 - 08:08:55 - 23073 of 23175 IMMUPHARMA - IN FINAL PHASE 3 LUPUS TRIAL TARGETING BLOCKBUSTER ($1bn+) REVENUES - IMM
I wonder if it reach 125p today or if it will do it tomorrow.

NOT WORRIED ABOUT THE 17 MILLION SHARE ARE WE SQUIRE!

[squiresquire] 05/4/2018 14:58

longterm

I just got the shares 19p cheaper though from yesterdays sale.

[money maker1] 05/4/2018 14:54

chadders - what is a stellar result?

Even if Lupuzor produces just +12% benefit over placebo (i.e. 2% better than Benlysta), its superior side effects profile, cheaper price, higher profit margin, long multi-territory patents, and applicability to multiple indications, will make it worth much more than Benlysta ever was.

Hopefully Lupuzor Phase 3 will produce at least +15% clinical benefit over placebo and < 20% dropout rate.

[opodio] 05/4/2018 14:53

Best thing to do is wait until next week and pay £6

[l0ngterm] 05/4/2018 14:52

Agreed but as squire never got his 17 million sell off :-) , and the price is fairly stable. So no drama, it would imply, for just now nothing afoot.

[jace86] 05/4/2018 14:50

Jack Eagle - it was previously shorted by world quant llc. Checking on short tracker I see no current reportable short. Since this short disappeared marker makers had been obliged to quote for 5000 shares, this is now 3000.

Longterm - I'd like to hope that is the case but not all pair up like you'd think they would if doing a bed and isa. Anyways, fingers crossed until the news comes!

[chadders] 05/4/2018 14:50

Exactly mm, so what happens if the results are stellar.....suspension methinks

[squiresquire] 05/4/2018 14:49

Back in now with buys averaging 165, so 19p benefit from sale over 15k.

[money maker1] 05/4/2018 14:46

All Lupuzor needs to do is beat Benlysta's Phase III +10% improvement over placebo and 23% drop out rate and then IMM shares could be on route to £200.

[chadders] 05/4/2018 14:46

Benchmark, don't underestimate the impact that stellar P3 results would have. It's a big "if" though.

[pretax2] 05/4/2018 14:45

Chadders
RE "If results are stellar I think a good chance of a suspension pending an announcement. Just my view."

I agree. Post a good p3 read out, it would be like owning shares in a completely different company, with hugely different potential. We would go from gamble to certainty.

If we are suspended, I wouldn't imagine the shares will return at the suspension price (nudge nudge).

[l0ngterm] 05/4/2018 14:44

Or folk just moving funds into and out for ISAs etc. And standard trading.

[jack eagle] 05/4/2018 14:44

is it possible to short Immupharma? I doubt the stock has enough liquidity. is there an aoption market on such an underlying?

[l0ngterm] 05/4/2018 14:42

Thanks for sharing your thoughts folks.

[jace86] 05/4/2018 14:37

Opodio - on what basis when there was just 10,000 sold and there has been large rounded sells of 10,000 and 5,000 all day? If anything it looks like someone's trying to get out quietly without causing a crash.

[ny boy] 05/4/2018 14:36

Can’t be a leak yet as the data has not been locked and passed on to the stats team for them to do their numbers and checking, it’s possible there could be a leak sometime after that process but not before.

[opodio] 05/4/2018 14:30

Theres been a leak and insiders are buying methinks

[opodio] 05/4/2018 14:28

W1NDJAMMER5 Apr '18 - 09:18 - 23105 of 23156
0 1 0
ham3

yes but you keep telling peeps the stock could crash........

you are now advocating holding double the stock



Yes, I am with 3hams, he is telling people to double their positions

Good lad@

[opodio] 05/4/2018 14:27

Best thing to do is wait until next week and pay £6