Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[hottingup] 18/12/2017 11:37

ham ham, no. Each patient participates in the Phase 3 trial from first dose to last evaluation for 52 Weeks. First dose is day 1 (or zero) last dose is end of Week 48 and last evaluation end of Week 52.

If the last patient started dosing by 3rd week of Jan 2017 (i.e. just before the Press Release on 25/1/2017) they would get their last evaluation 52 weeks later, in the 3rd week of Jan 2018, which then becomes trial end (apart from any seperate follow-up monitoring).

P.S.
The trial protocol is that each patient receives 13 doses, each 4 weeks (28 days) apart, for 48 weeks (commencing on day 1 (or zero), last dose thus day 336).

Responses are variously evaluated at weeks 4, 8, 12, 16, 20, 24, 28, 32, 36, 40, 44, 48 and 52.

4 weeks = 28 days (i.e. less than one calander month).

[homebrewruss] 18/12/2017 11:33

hamhamham you're assuming that MTFB had a month between each dosing.
MTFB is completely different.

It's an antibiotic, is not dosed in the same way and the trial completed sooner than IMM would do following the last dosing.

[hamhamham1] 18/12/2017 11:29

longshanks. So if last Lupuzor patient get last dose on 27th December 2017. Then if following the pattern you mentioned of 8 weeks later to readout, then I make that Wednesday 21st Feb 2018 for Lupuzor readout day. * weeks seems right gap - 4 weeks to last monitor point and 4 weeks to collate results and complile report ??

[longshanks] 18/12/2017 11:24

FWIW, MotifBio recently completed a P3 trial. They announced last patient treated on 9th August and released headline data from the P3 readout on 4th October.I am expecting the IMM P3 readout in March 2018

[homebrewruss] 18/12/2017 11:17

It might be earlier than that. I had this from the company a few weeks ago:

'We will continue to update the market on the Lupuzor trial with the key announcement confirming all patients have completed the trial and its 12 month dosing regimen in early January 2018'

[hamhamham1] 18/12/2017 11:15

I base these dates upon the fact that the 25th Jan (All dosed) RNS went out at this time: 25th January 2017 - 5:08 pm - So to me, its says it was put out at the end of the day after last dose done, else would have just put it out at 7am that morning or another day ???

[hamhamham1] 18/12/2017 11:11

hottingup. If the last patient had taken their dose by 25th Jan 2017. If this is a 52 week trial, with 1 dose every for weeks and repeated 13 times (ie 4 x 13 = 52 weeks). Then maybe it will time something like below. Maybe RNS to say last patient dosed after CoB on Wednesday 27th December 2017?
B/line Wednesday 28-Dec-16 -
Dose 1 Wednesday 25-Jan-17 -
Dose 2 Wednesday 22-Feb-17 -
Dose 3 Wednesday 22-Mar-17 -
Dose 4 Wednesday 19-Apr-17 -
Dose 5 Wednesday 17-May-17 -
Dose 6 Wednesday 15-Jun-17 -
Dose 7 Wednesday 12-Jul-17 -
Dose 8 Wednesday 09-Aug-17 -
Dose 9 Wednesday 06-Sep-17 -
Dose 10 Wednesday 04-Oct-17 -
Dose 11 Wednesday 01-Nov-17 -
Dose 12 Wednesday 29-Nov-17 -
Dose 13 Wednesday 27-Dec-17 -

[ny boy] 18/12/2017 11:06

Sounds like a few have been on the anti freeze early 😉

Festive time trading has started.

Expect plenty of volatility with thin volumes around the holidays.

Looking forward to Q1 - 2018, mainly because I am off to the Far East for some winter sunshine and heat

[hottingup] 18/12/2017 10:57

On 25/1/2017 IMM announced "200 patients successfully recruited and randomised (dosed)" in the Phase III Lupuzor trial.



That means the last patient had commenced dosing by 25/1/2017 (say mid Jan 2017).

The trial protocol is that each patient receives 13 doses, each 4 weeks apart, for 48 weeks (commencing on day 1, last dose thus day 336).

Responses are variously evaluated at weeks 4, 8, 12, 16, 20, 24, 28, 32, 36, 40, 44, 48 and 52.

If the last patient to join the trial commenced dosing in mid Jan 2017, they would thus receive their last dose in mid Dec 2017, and their last evaluation at the end of week 52, i.e. mid Jan 2018. (If the last evaluation is at the end of week 52, last dose must have been administered 4 weeks before, i.e. week 48).

IMM's Tim McC said in an interview on 28/9/2017 that Simbac-Orion are collecting and collating the Phase III trial data as each patient finishes (rather than waiting until the end of the trial). I presume this could mean IMM will be in a position to publish headline results late Jan or Feb 2018.

[obiterdicta] 18/12/2017 10:55

Fair comment BB. The difference in opinion is whether the share price fully reflects:

1. Potential billion pound sales of the drug.
2.Possibility of a takeover by big pharma on same multiples as other industry sales on FDA approval.

My view is the upside is not yet fully priced in. Accept your more cautious view though.

OD.

[ourbr3tt0] 18/12/2017 10:53

Who sells 9 shares. Surly you will just let them ride ha ha

[bookbroker] 18/12/2017 10:49

Not angry, simply realistic, the only positive here is that there are few negatives, but in the business of drug discovery there is no sure bet, the odds here favour an approval ultimately for Lupozor, but the share price thus far reflects that, boards do not need constant rampers, the price will reflect the prospects.

[jpleight] 18/12/2017 10:40

Id rather be rich than right NYboy. I just see a lot of stock available at L2 at the moment.

[arab3] 18/12/2017 10:28

buying the dips at ryanair today nyboy ?

[ny boy] 18/12/2017 10:26

Bookbroker, had the same sort telling me there was no stock shortage when we were in the 90’s & 125p’s I let the sp, prove me right. Obvious if there are mostly buyers who are holding stock it will become a problem, then you get the next leg up, which is 200.07p as top of the current trend channel.

Been in since 52p, so had plenty of doubters along the way.

Fun start next month, expect a lot more weekly rises before phase 3

[hamhamham1] 18/12/2017 10:21

Yep I guess if they announced all had first dose before 25th Jan 2017, then that means last dose before 25th December 2017?

[top tips] 18/12/2017 10:15

Last patient in Phase 3 Lupuzor received their last dose by now I presume.

[gbh2] 18/12/2017 09:29

It's stupid comments about "Shortage of Stock" that makes this thread look ridiculous and devalues sensible comment!

[jpleight] 18/12/2017 09:24

I dont see the shortage. Plenty available on L2 imo

[sportbilly1976] 18/12/2017 09:06

162.50-165.00 yet 5k pays 167.75 :0

new broker required!