Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[immy1992] 16/12/2017 11:30

It's not that this is a bulletin board that does not take criticism well. Its just that most of the criticism received here is essentially just " you guys are all idiots, sell now"

[wantonhearts] 16/12/2017 11:26

Don't worry about us, Badger. You just concentrate on yourself.

Besides, most of us are on a free carry going into results anyway. So, no stress here. Appreciate your "concern" though, ha.

[che7win] 16/12/2017 11:22

I welcome debate, It's made me go look at the reason why I invested here.One thing, the potential here is enormous.

[supernumerary] 16/12/2017 11:22

Interesting...

[professor bang bang] 16/12/2017 11:22

Improvement rates with Lupuzor

Phase 2b at 3 months = + 67.6%
Phase 2b at 6 months = + 84.2%
Phase 3 at 9 - 12 months = + 100% ??

For me its not now about whether lupuzor works but just how big the improvement will be at 9 and 12 months.

N.B.
Resetting the Autoreactive Immune System with a Therapeutic Peptide in Lupus
Prof. Sylvian Muller
Lupus (2015) 24, pg 412–418

"The phase IIb trial showed that after three months of therapy (three subcutaneous injections of 200 ug peptide/patient in addition to standard of care), Lupuzor improved Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index score of lupus patients under active treatment by 67.6% versus 41.5% in the placebo group (p<0.025). After three additional months of follow-up, the improvement rate was 84.2% versus 45.8% (p<0.025). The side effect profile was unproblematic and the drug was well tolerated as evidenced by a very low drop-out rate."

www.lupuzor.com/Documents/Schall%20Muller%20Lupus%202015.pdf

[badger60] 16/12/2017 11:14

Oh dear.....

[che7win] 16/12/2017 11:00

Badger,
Thanks for your post. The company is on record (presentation on their investor page ) as saying this has 'Multi-billion sales potential'.

Worldwide, 5% - or 350,000,000 people have some sort of AID (auto immune deficiency disorder). For Lupus, ~5m worldwide have it.

Even targeting 25,000 patients, that is 0.5% of the known captive suffers. For instance, we don't have any figures in China, India and Africa. It is also known tht patients are not diagnosed properly as having it.

They are on record as saying they can target 1.5m - 2m sufferer and expected sale price of $30,000 - $35,000. At the lower 1.5m and $30,000, that's $45,000,000,000 revenue. Even at a ludicrously low 10% margin, that's $4.5 billion profit, you can see that the numbers they are targeting are mind boggling. A realistic margin is probably more like 80% of $45,000,000,000 revenue. These are fantastic revenue figures, there is no existing treatment that addresses this terrible disease without suppressing the immune system. That means that current treatments although helping, leave patients susceptible to illness and that's the reason why mortality rates suffer. IMM treats this disease without suppressing the immune system!


What's more, Lupus is only one application. Of the 'P140' platform, they are confident this technique can be applied for other auto-immune diseases such as CIDP or Crohn's disease.

This is a massive market they are addressing, go research it for yourself.

The figures bandied about are actually not 'pie in the sky', the interest they are receiving at this stage from other companies is very promising.

A takeover at this price would not be out of the question IMHO before Q1 2018.

DYOR.

[wigwammer] 16/12/2017 10:50

I think I have explained quite clearly why it is not wishful thinking/rose tinted, so I guess we just agree to disagree.

[badger60] 16/12/2017 10:30

Wigwammer
Agreed to a point but your data at this point in time is (comparatively) subjective.....not substantive......ergo in many ways just wishful thinking.....,

[jpleight] 16/12/2017 10:29

I hold IMM because of the science. 17 years of development. Great data. significant p values. FDA 'speedy aproval'. People be patient, de risk your position and dont be greedy. Now go for a walk and enjoy the weekend.

[wi1l] 16/12/2017 10:10

I hold some IMM and am very happy to do so. The only thing that I am slightly wary about is Tim McCarthy dare I say it because from memory he was connected with AZM which failed about 8 years ago. Only a distant memory mind you.

[lukead] 16/12/2017 10:03

I see "Badger" is here because of the poster 'W1NDJAMMER", there is a running feud between them on the ISAT bb, both of them boasting to each other how much they have made on shares and 'W1NDJAMMER" saying how much he has made so far on IMM and much more to come and pointing out losses that Badger has made and of course this only serves to anger "badger" who then decides to come on here and deramp IMM out of revenge/spite? Schoolboy stuff and unfortnately these bb's are full of people like this. Bit sad really and poor reflection on advfn posters.

[costapacket] 16/12/2017 09:49

Thought I'd seen you on a few of the oilers Badger -Ophr,.. I'm considering a punt there.

Re IMM- there are many pharms that have failed ML Labs was one I was in 20 years ago. I remember the circus around RGT only too well but here personally I love the story. Its a binary punt and indications are the phase 3 trials are going well; latter stage with preparation for going to market in short order ( I avoid early stage plays but good luck to those that do as each hurdle overcome releases more value).

Contrary views are very welcome, its what makes a market and with such a rise its bound to attract attention.

Waiting on results and taking it from there myself. Happy to add into the rise.

Its simple if you like it then buy the story ( though some of the valuatio projections suggested are maybe a touch optimistic! ) but theres a lot of upside here with the price as it stands.

This is a company with a very saleable product that if granted approval will provide sizeable revenues. Plenty to research on this thread.

[homebrewruss] 16/12/2017 09:43

On a moral front it might be nice if they charged a bit less. At the most recent presentation Tim McCarthy suggested the profit margin would be very high given the very low cost of peptide production.

[divmad] 16/12/2017 09:41

What's the matter, badger? Haven't got the share price down enough for you to enter the fray?

[divmad] 16/12/2017 09:40

So, badger, who pays for the Benlysta jollop now, in the USA? Or is that an imaginary pill with imaginary revenues for GSK?

[hamhamham1] 16/12/2017 09:38

New drugs are expensive. It's a fact we got to live with.
These 2 articles are interesting. This is a quote from the 2nd article
"Private insurance companies risk backlash from physicians and patients if they refuse to cover a drug, and Medicare is required by law to cover all FDA approved drugs, regardless of price."



And

[costapacket] 16/12/2017 09:33

Not long until we find out results.

[badger60] 16/12/2017 09:27

What do you think that the insurance premiums would be if there was actuarially a real chance of having to cover the $25-$30k cost of lupus jollop? It will be an exclusion condition on the policy.....like HIV and AIDs are....

[divinessence] 16/12/2017 09:23

Is it not a hibernating season now for badgers? Look as though badger has Sleep walked into an unknown territory.

[hamhamham1] 16/12/2017 09:20

Badger. All I am hoping for at this stage is for a repeat of previous test results. Maybe even get a better result with the extra duration?
I am happy with the investment not only because of the upside potential but because the scientific approach is novel, clever and logical. This appeals to me in the way I choose to invest.
Please spend a bit of time and watch Sylviane Muller's explanation.
(I notice the video works OK in portrait mode of phone or fine on laptop but I had am issue when I tilted the phone on its side.)
hxxp://www.immupharma.co.uk/event/lupuzor-symposium/