Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[immy1992] 14/12/2017 17:09

Exactly spawny. If news is good no chance im selling anything before any deal is announced

[spawny100] 14/12/2017 15:15

£8.88 seems bizarrely low to set an auto order given how bullish you are as a long term holder NY.

[crapcrap] 14/12/2017 15:08

you will get mugged at that price!

[ashehzi] 14/12/2017 15:07

IG allows DMA but that requires L2 subscription and L2 desktop software on your machine.

[ny boy] 14/12/2017 14:27

I got a partial sell order in @ £8.88p..just in case i’m Out, or on holiday.

[gbh2] 14/12/2017 14:23

IG just offered me 2000 @ 159.1

[sportbilly1976] 14/12/2017 14:22

mcdermov,

Don't IG allow DMA? If so, just buy off the order book or place an order to buy above the highest bid for the quantity you want

[mcdermov] 14/12/2017 14:18

Just tried to buy 1000 shares IMMU at market on IG. Message back was no stock volume that size available at that price. Same message trying to buy 5000 or 2000 shares.

[professor bang bang] 14/12/2017 13:57

Improvement rates with Lupuzor

Phase 2b at 3 months = + 67.6%
Phase 2b at 6 months = + 84.2%
Phase 3 at 9 - 12 months = + 100% ??

For me its not now about whether lupuzor works but just how big the improvement will be at 9 and 12 months.

N.B.
Resetting the Autoreactive Immune System with a Therapeutic Peptide in Lupus
Prof. Sylvian Muller
Lupus (2015) 24, pg 412–418

"The phase IIb trial showed that after three months of therapy (three subcutaneous injections of 200 ug peptide/patient in addition to standard of care), Lupuzor improved Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index score of lupus patients under active treatment by 67.6% versus 41.5% in the placebo group (p<0.025). After three additional months of follow-up, the improvement rate was 84.2% versus 45.8% (p<0.025). The side effect profile was unproblematic and the drug was well tolerated as evidenced by a very low drop-out rate."

www.lupuzor.com/Documents/Schall%20Muller%20Lupus%202015.pdf

[sportbilly1976] 14/12/2017 13:45

adejuk,

I don't have visibility, but looking at the trades and share price movements I would suggest that the order book is quite thin both ways

Anyone with L2 access able to post a screenshot to confirm?

tia

[hottingup] 14/12/2017 13:25

Benlysta is predicted to reach $1 billion pa by 2020 but obviously Lupuzor would capture all that market if better, safer and cheaper; plus grow the market further and potentially be applicable to other indications.

[adejuk] 14/12/2017 13:23

is there a lot of activity on level 2?
where are they getting the stock?

[lukead] 14/12/2017 12:59

bolador,thanks, only to the naked eye, the bid is 161, a tiny sell comes up and down it goes to 156 and no doubt it will be up again to 161, but other things going on

hamham, that's a pity, still a nice bit of detail, thanks.

[hamhamham1] 14/12/2017 12:53

Afraid not lukead. I think these guys won, but reading the link below am not sure their 'social benefit' is anything of note to humanity. Maybe the awards are sponsored by Garmin or something :)

[bolador] 14/12/2017 12:50

lukead

MMs keeping balanced books now, an order of two thousand shares seems to shift the
price. All quite normal as Christmas approaches and the pub calls !

Large bargains do not have to be posted immediately, I forget the rule number but its not corrupt. The idea is to smooth markets by giving time for the MM to adjust the book.

Hope this helps.

[lukead] 14/12/2017 12:44

Q, did our 'girl' win the award ?

[lukead] 14/12/2017 12:30

then they allow the probable 12k buy of much earlier on at 156 to make it look as if it is a current sell, corrupt

[lukead] 14/12/2017 12:19

This share price acts oddly at time. EG, it has been on an upward rise this morning and then in a second it shoots down, ?

[herschel k] 14/12/2017 12:10

I know I said before that it's not surprising that people take the projected SP's with a pinch of salt, but for some balance, what others have posted before is worth noting based on that new article:

"We know from the recent takeover of Kite Pharma (2017) a takeover buyer would be willing to pay $7 billion per $1 billion of future drug revenues."

940m Euros (CONSERVATIVE, as per article) is $1.1bn
Which would mean a takeover at $7.7bn or £5.73bn = £43 per share

and that's conservative, apparently.........

H

[costapacket] 14/12/2017 12:07

Herschel - wow, and I note the Conservative statement. For me this is share of the year for 2018. I have a number of holdings but this one could be staggering in its impact.

With those sorts of figures I'd also imagine a dividend would be forthcoming. Long way to go but very exciting times ahead here.

[hottingup] 14/12/2017 12:02

Sales will multi billion $.

[herschel k] 14/12/2017 11:58

"ImmuPharma conservatively estimates annual sales of Lupuzor could reach over EUR 940 million"

940m Euros is £827m
At a 20% profit margin (I suspect it would be at least double that for Lupuzor, but obviously they would ramp up R&D on the other potential treatment avenues):

£165m profit per annum x 20 p/e ratio = £3.3bn per annum x 85% (15% royalty lost) = £2.81bn

2.81bn/132.5m shares = £21.20 per share.

And that's a CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE in respect of their annual sales, plus (in my view) a conservative estimate of the profit margin.

H