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Posted at 06/3/2024 12:20 by lord loads of lolly nobbygnome - You say IMM looks cheap, is priced to fail and that its holding & warrants in Incanthera could prove a significant asset. So despite your reservations about any imminent deals to provide upfront cash, do you regard IMM as over or under valued at its current level (post-today's uptick)? Notwithstanding McCarthy's pre-disposition to - ahem - exaggerate, I view today's RNS as a major positive. Assuming he doesn't totally go back on his word in a few weeks' time (admittedly a big assumption), surely the major fear that IMM was about to go bust has been dispelled. For now at least. To me, this is now a share to hold & sell closer to (but importantly before!) any trial readout. Your thoughts? Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 06/3/2024 08:46 by sicilian_kan Outstanding RNS. Remember IMM is currently priced to go bust, despite holding significant assets and today it being confirmed that there are no current plans to raise equity and that future cash requirements are expected to be non dilutive from up front payments in new commercial deals with unpartnered assets. Active discussions / a bread range of discussions confirmed. Among the assets are: 1. Fully funded P3 trial for Lupuzor, which IMM has double digit tiered royalties on up to 17% and milestone payments, whilst retaining all non-US rights that they hope to partner on this year. The US only deal itself is worth more than the current market cap, let alone the ROW rights that they can sell. 2. They have the worldwide rights for Lupuzor in CIPD that can go straight into a P2/3 and which they hope to partner on. Again, any deal would dwarf the current market cap. Orphan drug status being submitted which again would provide a large boost to the share price even before a deal. 3. The worldwide rights for BioAMB, an anti-infective program that they also hope to partner on. Part 1 of new dose ranging study in animal model complete and no toxisity. Moving to Part 2. Intial partnering discussions have commenced. 4. IMM owns 10.8% (as well as 7.3m warrants) in Incanthera, which concluded a significant commercial skincare deal with part of the AS Watson Group. This is the world's largest international health and beauty retailer owning brands like Superdrug, The Perfume Shop and many others. Significant revenues and profitability are expected to commence for Incanthera in 2024. 5. Overheads reduced by more than 75% since the new business plan came in. All for a market cap of £4.7m. Yes, sub £5m market cap, with no funding needs, for double digit royalties in a fully funded P3 trial, 100% of ROW rights to sell for that trial, 100% of CIDP worldwide rights to sell for the same drug to go into P2/3 trial, 10.8% share of a company expected to generate revenues and profitability this year with a partnership with the world's largest international health and beauty retailer, anti-infective progress and partnership discussions having commenced, and overheads reduced by 75%. It is in my view one of the most undervalued companies on AIM. It should easily have a market cap of £20m in its current position, or around 5p. And that is before any deals are done. Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 06/3/2024 08:12 by nobbygnome This is a classic McCarthy over optimistic statement. The anti infective is preclinical and Pharma always prefer to see clinical data before they sign on the dotted line. So the chances of getting a significant upfront for this program is absolutely minimal! With regards to the P140 programs well you have to remember it’s soiled goods because it spectacularly failed its first phase III. Also IMM received no upfront payment from Elan even though in theory it’s a phase III ready drug so it’s hard to believe they will get any significant upfront for the second indication. Ironically the best chance to raise money is the holding in Incanthera which is nothing to do with IMM directly because that looks like it could succeed in the short term. So I don’t hold out much hope for significant deals providing upfront cash to keep the company going in the short term. However you have to say the company is priced to fail and any half decent deal could well precipitate a rise in the price! Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 01/3/2024 10:16 by colsmith Interesting the way this is being walked down. I read piece in the DM about UK companies being taken over from overseas (link) and it occurred to me that at £3.6M cap IMM could be taken over for an amount that is spare change. Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 08/2/2024 11:20 by lord loads of lolly nobby - agreed. Though as I posted on 6th Feb, assuming the trial still proceeds with Avion's full funding, I suspect IMM's share price will rise significantly at some stage within the next two years or so, closer to readout. This is less in McCarthy's hands now than at any time previously. In the unlikely event it met its endpoints, IMM's share price would go stratospheric. Otherwise, it's likely to be RIP IMM, IMHO. Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 06/2/2024 17:30 by lord loads of lolly Dr Biotech - interesting. I generally agree and am very sorry to hear about your niece. My only thought re: IMM is that many holders (myself included) are probably hanging on (or averaging down) on the basis the share price could well rise as we get closer to the next trial results. I suspect many doubt this latest trial will actually deliver the goods (assuming it even happens). However, there might still be a way of erasing current paper losses by hanging on, then selling into any pre-readout froth. Of course, there's still a danger that IMM runs out of money before then, or that the expected share price rise never materialises! Your thoughts? Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 28/1/2024 10:45 by lord loads of lolly Luzley - the current share price reflects consensus view on IMM’s prospects of a SUCCESSFUL trial. Not just its stage of development. Also, there’s a possibility IMM will run out of cash shortly, which would mean a fund raise & yet more dilution. Not hard to see why the share price is where it is currently. Though sentiment could change rapidly, either for better or worse. Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 08/1/2024 07:00 by nobbygnome In the Lupuzor update on 19th June there was the following statement ‘Following the receipt of comprehensive guidance from the Food and Drug Administration ("FDA") in 3 separate Type-C meetings, a Phase 2/3 adaptive clinical trial of P140 (Lupuzor(TM)) in patients with Lupus will commence in H2 2023.’ So the guidance from the FDA was for a phase 2/3 adaptive trial. However IMM have now ditched that advice and are going for a straight phase 3 albeit with dose ranging built in. That’s going against the FDA advice and usually that doesn’t go down well…. Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 20/12/2023 13:13 by sclper I was invested in IMM for several years before the Phase III trial. Thanks to posts like yours I had doubts about the efficacy of Lupuzor and sold out before the trial results were announced when the share price was sky high. Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 19/12/2023 19:28 by nobbygnome Funny how a number of posters including past IMM shareholders seem to hate me. Ho hum….thanks for the kind words Read Full Thread Reply