Immunodiagnostic Systems Share Discussion Threads

[5dally] 06/1/2008 17:32

Also had a positive mention in Friday's Money Week

[sheeneqa] 11/12/2007 14:29

Yep you pays your money, problem here it it so illiquid that you have problems getting in or out if things are going well or bad. Must be less than 20% in PI hands, not many shares to be had....

[felix99] 11/12/2007 13:45

Thanks for that Sheena - my point still stands that its on a rich rating with not inconsiderable execution risk / delay in getting 3 x 3 going

Time will tell I guess

[sheeneqa] 11/12/2007 13:07

See these further to go, few sold abit early I would wager......

Research Standing
The attractions of diagnostics are the recurring revenue streams enjoyed and the leverage obtained from new treatments being developed - this is particularly true in the field of bones, where aging populations are increasing the universe with bone problems and significant resource is being devoted to developing new treatments/bone growth promotants - patient outcomes benefit from both earlier diagnosis and also monitoring during treatment.

The company broker's note dated 10th December 2007 projects EPS of 9.8p for 2007/8, 16.2p for 2008/9 and 26.2p for 2009/10 representing P/Es of 23.2, 14.0 and 8.7 based on the share price of 227.5p at 10th December.

Despite multiplying over 4.5x in the 2.5 years since the IPO launch at 51p, the share price still looks reasonable value having regard to the rate of EPS growth, the business activity/model and the vision for IDS within the bone & skeletal biomarker market.

COMPANY MEETINGS

i) With CEO, Dr Roger Duggan, and FD, Paul Hailes, on 10th December 2007

Key points to emerge were:

a) 3x3 automated analyser (see final results to March 2007)

The reasons for the acquisition of this instrument being expected to provide a step change to the scale of the IDS business are:

- Nichols Institute which was funding the development of the instrument until its demise was selling c.$80 million of automated bone assays pa based on 6 products. Since the demise of Nichols, many of its customers have had to revert to manual assays. The only other significant competitor sells an automated analyser which is 12 years old.

- IDS has the same 6 products which Nichols was selling. In addition, Nordic Bioscience Diagnostics (see July 2007) brings another 6 products, which combined with the IDS products provides IDS with a unique portfolio of bone assays.

b) Nordic Bioscience Diagnostics (NBD - see July 2007)

NBD is scheduled to become a direct sales entity by March 2008 - this is expected to improve group profitability by c.£500,000 pa. In addition, NBD's production is scheduled to be moved to Boldon by May 2008, which is expected to improve profitability by c.£350,000 pa.
full review at www.armshare.com.

[wjccghcc] 10/12/2007 07:44

Encouraging but the BCH aquisition only completed at the beginning of September. Be interesting to see how their losses will affect forecasts for the year.

[alftupper] 10/12/2007 07:31

To anyone who has an understanding of diagnostics the loss of the distributorship is not a huge loss in profit terms - I am sure they would have liked to have kept it but the impact in the current year to March 08 is likely to be minimal given that the parting was described as amicable i.e there will be some passing of money in terms of termination re customer lists etc etc.

Overall an encouraging set of results.

[myoldmate] 10/12/2007 07:25

Hats off to you felix your info is correct.

[myoldmate] 07/12/2007 21:56

I wasn't aware that IDH are distributors of any machine or reagents at this moment. Surely up until recently the assays they produce are only capable of being tested manually?

Your info will be either confirmed or vilified Monday.

As for banking profits my opinion is that in this market one should protect ones capital so I have put in place some fairly tight stops just in case Mondays news is not well received.

[felix99] 07/12/2007 11:12

Anyone in the game here?

I heard a whisper that they have lost a distributorship of a machine and reagents as they are now viewed as a competitor having bought a mchine platform.

Just wonder if that will hurt them as the operational gearing means any loss in turnover at 63% could be hard work recvoering to achieve forecast of £3.9m pre tax this year. Even assuming they do with 24m shares now in issue its now only 11p eps for a 2008 p/e of 21 or so. not cheap and if there is any hickup it will get splattered in this market.

Guess we will find out monday but might be wise to bank a few if you are in profit just in case.

Also must be big execution risk over next few months for this new 3 x 3 machine being launched in New Year. If Competitors stick their oar in as well it could be tough for a relative minnow in this mkt of big players.

[myoldmate] 03/12/2007 13:06

Landsbanki been given the old heave ho then. I reckon the management weren't to impressed with the recent brokers note, and no I haven't seen it, but what little I do know is that they forecast EPS 11p for 2008 and 15.6 for 2009.

[myoldmate] 23/11/2007 19:00

It was a bit more than that. IDH and 5 other stocks, sage and alterian were two, I can't remember the others, are the subject of this weeks cover story.

These shares are in a portfolio that the author David Stevenson reckons will perform very well over the next few years.

His stockpicking is based on the theories of some bloke called Michael Murphy who uses certain criteria to identify suitable stocks. This procedure can be read

It does say in the article that IDH is one of the riskier bets due to their recent activities............. but if all goes well!!

[geraldus] 23/11/2007 14:43

There is a paragraph devoted to IDH in the IC today.Nothing new but might create a bit of interest.

[myoldmate] 21/11/2007 09:31

A nice filip that FVC have added another 500k to their holdings.

[myoldmate] 20/11/2007 21:24

Take a look around at many other stocks recently and you'll see that although we've remained static that's a whole lot better than constant falling.

[alftupper] 12/11/2007 20:23

Heard on the grapevine that their broker has initiated coverage - has anyone seen the note and the price target ?

[geraldus] 12/11/2007 16:32

Excellent article.In these volatile markets medical stocks are a good defensive play.I look forward to the results.G.Spotts.

[myoldmate] 12/11/2007 12:18

A while ago, about the time of the NBD acquisition, I posted a link to Colins (AliceinWonder1) excellent summary of IDH over on TMF. Having checked back recently he has posted another wonderful write up that takes into account the Biocode acquisition and also includes a question and answer session with the company.

The link to the original post is at the top and is worth reading again.

[george19] 29/10/2007 12:31

JMB - See 'News' above below the charts. Announcements usually appear there.

[geraldus] 29/10/2007 07:51

Article about diagnostics being hot in the FT.today.Should be worth a read.

[jm barrie100] 28/10/2007 09:18

Many thanks for the quick reply.

[jm barrie100] 28/10/2007 08:42

myoldmate - where did you get the information on the interims from?

[myoldmate] 27/10/2007 23:08

Interims 10th Dec.