Immunodiagnostic Systems Share Discussion Threads

[sheeneqa] 14/8/2007 12:18

Looks good value....

The attractions of diagnostics are the recurring revenue streams enjoyed and the leverage obtained from new treatments being developed - this is particularly true in the field of bones, where aging populations are increasing the universe with bone problems and significant resource is being devoted to developing new treatments/bone growth promotants - patient outcomes benefit from both earlier diagnosis and also monitoring during treatment.

The company broker's note dated 6th November projects adjusted EPS of 12.29p for 2006/7 and 15.56p for 2007/8 representing P/Es of 20.9 and 16.5 respectively based on the share price of 257p at 3rd August (market cap of £41 million) - no note was produced at the time of the 2006/7 prelims, but a pro-forma combining the latest results of IDS and NBD (see July 2007) shows sales of £14.1 million and pre-tax profit of £4.2 million.

Despite multiplying over 5x in the 2.5 years since the IPO launch at 51p, the share price still looks reasonable value having regard to the rate of EPS growth, the business activity/model and the vision for IDS within the bone & skeletal biomarker market.

[felix99] 09/8/2007 10:03

Alice is good - he didn't like Chief exec though .Must have got him on a bad day CF

[sheeneqa] 09/8/2007 09:01

Keeping quality staff IE Dr Garrity may be a problem, tyne and wear! :-)

Nice write up from TMF...

[the count] 08/8/2007 12:39

THE COUNT--->FELIX99

Hi Felix.

I don't post as widely as I used to as I want a slightly simpler life nowadays. It comes with age, and hopefully greater wisdom, I suppose.

You will find me posting on DEMG, CRA, MXP and occasionally ASD threads still.

I have added another 10k of shares to my holdings in IDH the last couple of days. The illiquidity is a problem but I am in for the long term. I believe something very substantial could be built here and I have great faith in the judgment of David Evans in particular (hope that doesn't become the kiss of death for him and me).

This was always a small investment for me but I am getting tempted to build it up quite a bit. I want to see how they absorb the recent aquisitions first though...but they have doen nothing wrong since flotation so I am hopeful. I think at current prices though, the stock is cheap on exisiting fundamentals anyway.

Regards,

THE COUNT!

[felix99] 08/8/2007 12:24

ooh nurse - why didn't I buy more at 204

[nurdin] 08/8/2007 11:50

oh eck :o)

[cockneyrebel] 08/8/2007 10:20

Back in IDH today on the basis that I trust Nurdin's calculations and on that basis they would be very cheap.

CR

[felix99] 08/8/2007 10:01

Hello Count - not seen you for a bit around the Boards . I used to enjoy reading your posts elswehere. On eof the stocks but slept since then and can;t remember what it was .

204 was just daft - so I helped meself .

Would have been a great CQshares.com tip that for a quick 20% at 204 imho

[liarspoker] 08/8/2007 08:49

Yep, bodes well nurdin. I reckon the value of the patents hasn't been accounted for though. Could be more here then people think.

[nurdin] 08/8/2007 08:19

Looks like we are on the move again...240p placing price target will do for the starters :o)

[liarspoker] 07/8/2007 17:44

No problem silverfern - I always pride myself on my useful and insightful posts such as my only post previous to this one on this thread ;O))


Liarspoker - 7 Aug'07 - 08:31 - 285 of 292 edit


Me too......:O)

[silverfern] 07/8/2007 17:42

thanks to all who have posted in recent days. Very useful and insightful.

[nurdin] 07/8/2007 13:00

Thanks myoldmate....so my guesstimate of profits above £4m wasnt far out.That of course excludes the latest acquisition which should help boost margins significantly imo.

[myoldmate] 07/8/2007 12:45

Latest update from Armshare.

The company broker's note dated 6th November projects adjusted EPS of 12.29p for 2006/7 and 15.56p for 2007/8 representing P/Es of 20.9 and 16.5 respectively based on the share price of 257p at 3rd August (market cap of £41 million) - no note was produced at the time of the 2006/7 prelims, but a pro-forma combining the latest results of IDS and NBD (see July 2007) shows sales of £14.1 million and pre-tax profit of £4.2 million.

Despite multiplying over 5x in the 2.5 years since the IPO launch at 51p, the share price still looks reasonable value having regard to the rate of EPS growth, the business activity/model and the vision for IDS within the bone & skeletal biomarker market.

[wjccghcc] 07/8/2007 09:47

Well I've bought back most of what I sold at 300p after the results so that's worked out quite well. Agree the risk profile has risen considerably but then so has the returns.

[the count] 07/8/2007 09:19

THE COUNT--->ALL

Yes, I have been buying back into this....I started from the 280p's (ouch!!). I added more today at 215p.

I was originally in from the IPO at 54p but I sold out at a profit about a year later. That was a mistake with hindsight.

I have known the chairman David Evans since his days at Shield Diagnostics. I have faith in his ability to help guide these aquisitions through to a positive bedding down in the overall business...although I agree with some posters that they have perhaps pushed the acquisition route a bit too aggressively and badly misjudged the market response.

They have really put themselves on trial now. Hopefully they won't mess what has otherwise been an unblemished record.

Regards,

THE COUNT!

[nurdin] 07/8/2007 09:11

Well done Felix.

Instituions were happy to pay 251p in their last placing related to the acquisition of NBD.NBD adds atleast £2m EBIT which is the same (almost) as what IDH did in the year to March 07.That acquisition should result in an EBIT of atleast £5m for the current year,conservatively.

The latest acquisition, while looking expensive on the face of it ,gives them a pateneted technolgy which should boost margins significantly going forward.I personally think its a fair price for a very valuable intangible asset.

I understand the latest placing at 240p has all been taken up subject to the egm

[felix99] 07/8/2007 08:52

ooh and me - wa sin this at 125 odd andf scalped 20 pts or so at 160 . watched it drop but didn;t buy back and watched ever since.

Desperate seller yday looked to me and they got mopped up last night so piled in for a few and a few more this am. If Inst happy to buy at 240 they will be buying this seller out too - just a qestion of how much they screw them. Cos you lot werent; nibbling alllt he way down they screwed the seller to 200 or 205 as no one was taking up the stock.

I know the business and use one of their machines. Give the machines away and the user has to buy their reagents. Captive market - no competition etc . Good pricing power.

[liarspoker] 07/8/2007 08:31

Me too......:O)

[nurdin] 07/8/2007 08:09

I dont know about you lot but I have been buying ...

[v01101999] 06/8/2007 22:13

If the institutions are willing to buy, they would be willing to pay 240 p. It is not often you get to buy a third of the company. The price today is heavily marked down by MMs (this stock still does not trade on SETS and therefore you are dependent upon market makers to give you a buy and sell quote). This is one of the reason I have not opened a short on this stock as it is very difficult to close it once you have to. I would come back if the stock touches a PE of 15 or lower post dilution and if placing is successful. Till then I am watching having made some money on my long positions earlier. I think some one posted that buying before interims is a good time and it seems it would again be true this time. Wait for the prices to stabilise after fall, buy before interim and then wait for some good results.

[geologic] 06/8/2007 20:34

Thanks everyone.Good advice.I'am still learning and your comments are very much appreciated.
Geo.

[stegrego] 06/8/2007 20:26

Hmmm - anyone think that the placing wont get done now?
Or at least not at 240p??

Not invested here, but was offered some in the placing - which id be bonkers to take up at this juncture!

[myoldmate] 06/8/2007 19:35

GeoLogic

£2 is psychologically important and I'm hoping it won't be breached. Should it be then there's no more real resistance until £1.70ish, and below that £1.50.

The chart speaks for itself. The company has stated it's case and the market hasn't bought it, and this wont be resolved anytime soon.

Wait for the chart to settle, a period of consolidation would be good. Then put it on your watchlist and keep an eye on the trades and any RNS's that are published.

*IF!* companys plan works out how they want it to, then IDH are going to be big, but it's too soon to tell yet.