Idox Share Discussion Threads

[smithie6] 20/12/2017 13:03

so, Im not allowed to post any opinions ??!

is there a requirement to hold IDOX shares for at least 3 years before posting here ??!

[clocktower] 20/12/2017 12:14

Why are you share price concerned Smithie6?

Good volume again and great support - pointing to a decent bounce before long, maybe someone building a stake.

[clocktower] 19/12/2017 17:27

I wish you luck ernestsyngen but with a average of around 44p you will I think be in for the long haul or suffer further losses if the recovery is not as swift as hopeful holders like yourself hang on in.

I am surprised we did not see more of a bounce but hopefully this will come sooner rather than later allowing for small profits to those trading from these levels towards the low 30`s. That said, stop losses will cut in for those that bought in sub 30 if the fall continues, which in turn may drive it lower.

[ernestsyngen] 19/12/2017 15:23

I'm Balls deep on this, so its a long term hold and hope for for me and I hope Santa puts a few blue days down my Chimney

[clocktower] 19/12/2017 15:23

Thank you for giving life to the thread and all your input but it strikes me, that the only reason for your continued interest must I assume be, that you are short and wishing and hoping for greater rewards if the share price should fall. If it does by chance, the bounce will be even stronger and more rapid imo.

[smithie6] 19/12/2017 15:13

in recent days a bear might say that many shorters have been closing to take big profits....means buying...

once they have finished (surely will all close out since big profit)...there might be less buyers...

who knows..

but to half in price & then keep going down is not a bullish sign imo

(some big trades...at lower price so they look like sells...so some big hldrs have been reducing imo (insti divi funds phps since divi looks like toast due to the debt pile/risk)...while some others might have added...)

[clocktower] 19/12/2017 15:03

Disappointing movement today on decent volume but back at 27 - 27.5 So all to play for still.

[smithie6] 19/12/2017 11:16

6PM accounts (Im sure everyone has read them by now ;-) )

say that 6PM is NOT a going concern & is only a going concern because IDOX has g'teed to support it & pay debts etc.

Not a going concern & yet IDOX paid 35-43M to buy it ! ( final amount depending on whether you add liabilities to the declared cost.

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my guess is that AR is not on sick leave but on gardening leave since he & the FD ( with the nod of the bod & major shareholders) have driven IDOX into a bad situation with excessive debt coupled with some divs not performing well & 6PM being loss making

[smithie6] 18/12/2017 21:01

interesting

in prospectus for fund raising to buy 6PM

the IDOX dirs expected 6pm to produce in 2016
- turnover of 12M but it only achieved 7M
- EBITDA of 3M but it was in reality loss making (I make it around 3M cash loss)

enterprise value of acquisition of 35M

imho either
- 6PM guilty of fraudulent accounts

and/or

- IDOX dd was negligent

my guess would be the first item coupled with insufficient dd that should have discovered the false accounts which later suffered a massive correction by IDOX after ownership. (which infers the IDOX FD imho)

[ernestsyngen] 18/12/2017 20:32

Let me be the first to state:............ I wouldn't want to be out of this over Christmas

[smithie6] 18/12/2017 19:49

bank debt is higher imo

33M is the "nett" debt..incl. cash held

H1 cash held =6M ( about 1 months of costs....so probably a similar amount now) so overall debt would be ~39 M ! imo...when debt limit used to be 34M before some acquisitions....(has debt limit been increased ? are any bank debt rules being broken ?)

(1 risk is receivables. already reduced in recent RNS. ( EBITDA . Down from 23M to 20M .massive % change after year end !) any more similar stuff or a debtor goes bust or a council says they cant pay till ppl pay their council tax in X months time...then the nos. would get worse since staff still have to get paid each month.
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bank debt
if the co. was being successful at reducing receivables in order to pay down bank debt that wld help
..but
it is going the other way...!
receivables rocketted up by 10M in H1 results !..on turnover of 44M !..massive % ..& more than double the amount of claimed increase in turnover !

[kendonagasaki] 18/12/2017 19:44

£32 million debt of course?

[kendonagasaki] 18/12/2017 19:40

An aim company with £32 millon?No happy ending here im afraid?

[smithie6] 18/12/2017 19:39

I agree with your general point

but
if , let us say, that the top 2 designers of main product of acquired co. doesnt want to move to new city

and IDOX wants to update the product or integrate it with IDOX products....is it possible withoutthose 2 designers....or take 50% longer or produce a new product that might be ok but lacks sparkle or clever features...since the innovative designers didnt stay with the co.

or if you want to run user training courses & be able to quickly answer any questions then you need someone with good knowledge....which you cant obtain just by reading the user manual for 3 hrs.


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although it is always risk that key staff might leave for better jobs...
& one assumes that the co. considered the risks & decided it was ok

[clocktower] 18/12/2017 17:53

Smithie6,

"And surely many staff will have kids in local schools or girlfriends...or wives with local jobs and hence some good staff might refuse to move and will be lost , no ?"

You say! - well business does not give a fig for staffs kids or girlfriends or wives, business must be ruthless unless it is own privately by a philanthropist. If it is not run that way, then the BOD should be replaced, they are not appointed to take care of the local community, and are funded by investors that want a return on their investment, so they may choose who to support once the government have taken a share.

[smithie6] 18/12/2017 16:32

6PM loss in 2016

2.6M squid LOSS imo, excluding things like one offs such as writing off intangible assets, and excl amortisation/deprec. but including interest cost and including 'purchase of intangibles assets'

35-43M squid for that !! (the final/top number depending on whether you include or exclude the liabilities acquired with 6PM. = 8M ON TOP of the 11M 5% bond !!)

ouch !

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6PM payables went up by 3.5M at same time as turnover fell from about 8M to 7M.
and receivables stayed at same level

ouch
and seems difficult to explain

[smithie6] 18/12/2017 16:22

btw
the cashflow numbers or the text for 6PM for 2016 are wrong

receivables has gone up but they have added it to the cash generated, when it should be subtracted. (or the text is wrong and instead of it being an increase in receivables it was actually a decrease (signed off by the IDOX FD !!). But one would hope that accounts should be correct. But hey, IDOX just altered the EBITDA from 23M stated a few weeks before to 20M, so anything is possible !


(with the 6PM accounting fiasco and the IDOX RNSs fiasco ...surely the FD will be the next one to leave)

(I also note that IDOX paid 38M-50M for a loss making company and one with reducing turnover in each of last 3 years. What a farce or was IDOX intentionally conned by false 6PM accounts ?)

[smithie6] 18/12/2017 15:50

clocktower

on the one hand going from 9 offices to 3 offices is good news

but
imo it also shows , imho, that the co. has cashflow issues and is taking strong action because of that...ie. pushed in to it....
and surely Councils need local support...and also local sales people to get more clients... or not ?
and it doesnt give me a warm feeling that one might get from 'expanding' and adding more offices because people are queuing at the door to buy them.

and it also questions the bod
how come 9 offices was the right number in 2016 and only 3 offices is the right number in 2017 ??

And surely many staff will have kids in local schools or girlfriends...or wives with local jobs and hence some good staff might refuse to move and will be lost , no ?
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and surely for many of its good staff IDOX will be forced to pay moving costs and perhaps rental costs until ppl buy a house or flat
and reduncdancy costs for those that dont want to move

either way it surely produces a one off hit to IDOX numbers, which is not ideal when you have 33M of nett debt and your bank limit is 34M and there are covenants to comply with.....

and some staff are software people that are pieces of a jigsaw, part of teams....that have written or supported IDOX products....IDOX cant afford to loose a pack of them in one go imo


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As I posted before, I am not an IDOX expert and only posting fairly obvious comments after looking at some of the data.

[smithie6] 18/12/2017 15:35

"Logic can only be past experience."
you must be joking

may I politely suggest you look up logic in a dictionary. without wishing to be rude.

(logic is logic.
experience is experience

they are 2 completely different things)

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'hell has no fury like an investor that has lost money'

I didnt lose 1 penny since I did not hold any shares.
Luckily that is often something I am able to post since normally I tend to avoid stuff that is expensive and inherently has a higher risk of falling if any bad news.

Sure Im having a look to see if they are worth buying after halving in price, but all I keep finding is more bad hidden news....and Im convinced there is more to come (MD away, new MD stepped in, false accounts, worrying RNSs...)....and I think that 50p and 60p were just incorrect prices (partly supported by the co. issuing 20M worth of shares !!, experience tells me that one ! (companies often do that when they think the share price is over priced. And the fundamentals not supporting those price levels)

[trcml] 18/12/2017 15:20

"have to agree to disagree there is no logic in your post"

Logic can only be past experience. But building upon existing knowledge in the hope of achieving the desired outcome doesn't mean that the future necessarily has to take the same course. The future could be in the making of a different parameter. Logic without a flexible attitude is doomed.

In any event, all the negativity about IDOX didn't seem to be expressed before the recent announcements/ Yet presumably whatever is happening isn't new. It's just new to the shareholders and dare I say so hell hath no fury like a private investor whose shares have fallen in value.

[clocktower] 18/12/2017 15:18

That is good news Smithie6 - cost savings and reduced overheads.

[smithie6] 18/12/2017 15:15

Roger

reduction in number of offices..continued

9 UK offices listed in H1 report
and says that reducing to 3 offices
ie. closing 6 !!

!!

[clocktower] 18/12/2017 15:13

So Smithie6, are you short here or just posting your thoughts?

[smithie6] 18/12/2017 14:25

6PM news from Oct. due to issuing of 6PM accounts for 2016 for first time...material data

is there any logical reason for there being no mention of that news or the data in any IDOX RNS ?

(in hindsight the 6PM acquisition & acquisition price looks like intentional fraud by 6PM sellers; by presenting false financial data which is then corrected later after the acquisition is done & paid for at the artificially inflated price. £35-38M (or really more if incl. liabilities above the 11M bond !!) for £8M of loss making turnover !!)

Can IDOX claim money back from the 6PM shareholders (surely a difficult or impossible process) or do they have no liability and only the 6PM directors and they probably dont have 20-30M cash ??