International Business M... Share Discussion Threads

[big vern] 10/7/2002 09:06

...$50 here we go

[jazza] 10/7/2002 07:51

M.T. Glass,

Where is the scandal in what IBM has done?

[m.t.glass] 10/7/2002 01:23

We seem to be exhausting the shock headline stage ('Accounting Scandal'... 'Another Accounting Scandal' ...'Yet Another Accounting Scandal') and moving into the 'Today's scandal involves..' like it's already an accepted daily occurrence and no longer a shock. We just look to see who's reporting next and line up the cameras in readiness for the red faces.

How long before 'Accounts Found To Be Faultless' becomes the headline that shocks :o)

[m.t.glass] 09/7/2002 22:59

Oh look - IBM tonight having to restate its accounts..

[jazza] 09/7/2002 19:43

Just a little accounting aside....


Today I read my fifth or maybe sixth article about Merck.

I read the other four or five on previous days either in print or online.


Today's article was the first to state that Merck are not suspected of
fraud and that profits are unaffected.


The great enronitis-infected-mud-flinging-witch-hunt is off and running
and the quality of the "witches" is falling fast.

Why haven't we had more scare stories about Vodafone's accounts :-)

[big vern] 09/7/2002 16:41

..I heard clever manipulation with their pension fund ?

problems with growth and sales ?

I don't know what's going on but the chart looks very weak

[mr euro] 09/7/2002 14:42

This is great, people know more about IBM than I do :-)

A little knowedge.....

[shezzalad] 09/7/2002 11:25

UBS would do that wouldn't they. They need to flog "big blue" to unsuspecting investors.

IBM is a great short down to $50 at least. Their accounts are hiding real sales problems and considering their high p/e, this stock will hit $50 before the end of the year.

[limpsfield chartist] 09/7/2002 10:57

UBS upgraded them to a strong buy yesterday with a $120 target....they don't mention which decade they expect this target to be reached though

[mightymicro] 09/7/2002 10:55

VS et al: IBM may well lead in patent filings but it is as well to remember that much of this is a defensive measure. When IBM infringe someone else's patent, they usually swap patent rights with the infringee (invented word, but you get my meaning). Money seldom changes hands.

So patent filings are a sign of a a large, expensive legal department as much as anything else. Having said that, IBM have twice infringed registered trademarks owned by my company because they failed to do elementary searches before using the marks. Extraordinary, really.

MM

[big vern] 09/7/2002 10:29

...nice drop yesterday

[2deano] 08/7/2002 20:31

I recently read a book whereby the fortunes of one particular family were based around the accumulated wealth of buying and holding IBM stock. The book is called 'The Money Game' by Adam Smith.

I was reflecting upon this recently. The viewpoint throughout the generations was based upon the unswerving adherance to the words "You never sell IBM".

Of course, this made me smile as many people are no doubt doing very well out of selling IBM in this market, in the short term. Limpy for one.

I don't like that exhaustion gap from the high 90's to 90$.

I have no position either way in IBM. Just an observation.

[2deano] 08/7/2002 20:25

I am inclined to agree with you there Jazza. Contrary to popular belief, I don't believe in blatant de-ramping or scaremongering, although of course it would make no difference to a large cap company in any event.

Certainly if the reflection is based upon an individuals perception of truth, then people must in some way seek to justify that with something more substantial than "I think this because I choose to believe it and oh, let's compare it with this because it's the ultimate bear case scenario which suits my position"

I don't go for that at all. It's one thing to cite bearish reasons and point out the market/trend/targets etc. It's quite another to paint every company with the same brush. Even more so if that person cannot remotely substantiate their case with anything more than a flippant one liner.

[jazza] 08/7/2002 20:05

Plus, they have oodles of cash in the bank - hard to lie about that.

Such amateurish attempts to fling bits of enronitis infected mud
at any company you care to mention are starting to get me down.

[vs] 08/7/2002 18:13

big vern,
while I would think IBM have done whatever they can to flatter their accounts in previous years (which corporation wouldn't, if executive pay is linked to share price), to suggest that they are another Worldcom is rather laughable.

How many Worldcom products/services are you aware of? And how many sites/assets did they have across the world? Ask the same questions of IBM, and the results are rather more visible.

IBM has led the world-wide patent filings list for a number of years and although though this is no guarantee of future revenues or profits, one can expect them and the technology they are involved in to be around for a few more years.

[big vern] 08/7/2002 17:47

..could be another Worldcom ?

I'm short

[limpsfield chartist] 08/7/2002 17:03

I'm still short but they were strong last week, rallying before the market turned. Some weakness has returned today - but if they manage to rally through $74 I'm taking profits and looking to short higher.

A bit of journalistic scaremongering:



IBM's Cash Flow Is Weaker Than It Looks

Don't feel compelled to dive into IBM (IBM:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis) just because its stock has plunged. Three words sum up the red flag flying over Big Blue: free cash flow.....

....Here's where the bad news gets worse for IBM shareholders: Although the stock has dropped 30% in just three months, Detox's free cash flow analysis shows it has further to go yet. According to a few back-of-the-envelope calcuations, IBM should be trading around $50 -- some 25% below its recent $69.

[limpsfield chartist] 25/6/2002 09:24

I think the mid 60s is an obvious target but I don't think it will just sail through there.

With all of these muppet analysts downgrading it, and the fact that they are rarely right, I am tightening my take profits stop cos it wouldn't surprise me if we had a sharp bounce.

[trader2] 25/6/2002 06:37

SUNW also has the benefit of a number of senior managment leaving the company.

IBM - short target $60? Comments?

[pegasus] 24/6/2002 22:39

Excuse a blatant ramp, same sector as IBM, & will underperform IBM IMO. Sun Microsystems, SUNW.NAS, loverly chart, and business falling apart (storage business being overtaken by technology).

[fse] 24/6/2002 19:48

agreed that a PEG of 1 is very low for IBM..... I would have expected 1.4 to 1.6 range.
If they go sub PEG 1 then its getting very silly.
IBM have a lot of arrows to their bow now and of the mega large caps are one of my favourites.
Good case for ignoring goldman and drip feeding into this market in companies like this and Oracle and Intel .....

[jazza] 24/6/2002 19:05

Wonder if they've factored in a falling dollar - probably not.


The Goldman downgrade puts them on a 2003 PEG of just 1.

Cheap for a company this size.

[limpsfield chartist] 24/6/2002 18:21

Goldman Sachs Joins Growing List To Cut Estimates On IBM



NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- Goldman Sachs analyst Laura Conigliaro joined a growing list of analysts Monday when she took down her financial estimates on International Business Machines Corp. (IBM, news, msgs).

In the course of last week, analysts from Lehman Brothers, SoundView Technology and Morgan Stanley Dean Witter lowered their targets on Big Blue, fearing the corporate information-technology spending slowdown will hamper earnings at the Armonk, N.Y., tech heavyweight.

Goldman's Conigliaro now expects IBM to earn $4 a share in 2002, down from her past estimate of $4.05 a share, and for the company to report earnings of $4.65 a share in 2003, down 10 cents from her previous target.

The analyst said she revised her financial estimates for 2002 to reflect the negative effects of the IT spending slowdown and in 2003 to reflect an expected adjustment to IBM's pension plan return assumptions, which will be offset by restructuring the company has announced.

[dil] 21/6/2002 21:09

And another new low.

LC : See what you think of Echo Star Communications (DISH) , I think its an electricity company :-)