I-Design Share Discussion Threads

[frank1e] 27/3/2012 00:15

Interesting tweet from Timothy Hufford,

"Latest ROI on our Tesco estate £2.54; Taking our normative past £1.50 now.#atmAd #effective #drivingsalesofproduct".

Trading statement due shortly, looking forward to this one as it should tell us quite a lot about repeat advertising revenues hopefully.

[johncsimpson] 26/3/2012 20:35

dvda and Frank1e - I am now moving to that conclusion myself. I use different indicators for different situations/stocks but having tracked this for six months I'm beginning to think the group I've been using here are not going to work in their usual reliable way, unlike the ones I'm using with AVN.

I've noted the lack of volume before; it clearly doesn't help in general terms and is likely to have an adverse effect when there are a few sells.

GLA

[frank1e] 26/3/2012 17:38

Agree 100% dvda! I have tried tracking this stock using TA for a few years now, to no avail.

It's just as likely to jump 50p+ on good news as it is to drop a few pence with low volume sells like today.

With only c.14m shares, and many of them tightly held, this was always going to be very volatile imo.

[dvda] 26/3/2012 16:00

This is a news driven stock - unless your 'indicators' can somehow predict when the next RNS will be, they are unlikely to be of much value.

[johncsimpson] 26/3/2012 14:52

A significant turn in one of my main indicators does not look good . . . .

[smurfy2001] 25/3/2012 14:24

Facts,

P/E (TTM) 41.51
Revenue of 3.5m with a paltry 300k net income




Maybe the p/e will drop, we'll see but it's forecast to increase so further price drops to come? :)

i-design group Forecasts
Year Ending Revenue (£m) Pre-tax (£m) EPS P/E PEG EPS Grth. Div Yield
30-Sep-12 4.00 0.10 0.90p 48.9 n/a -18% n/a 0.0%
30-Sep-13 4.80 0.48 3.40p 13.0 0.0 +276% n/a 0.0%

[johncsimpson] 25/3/2012 10:39

smurfy2001 - 24 Mar'12 - 21:01 - 1473 of 1473

Will buy at 20p - good luck

Think I can see where you're coming from here 'smurfy', but good luck anyway. You also posted:

smurfy2001 - 17 Jan'12 - 13:20 - 1416 of 1473

Short is looking good, hoping for 20p.

smurfy2001 - 24 Jan'12 - 22:59 - 1444 of 1473

P/E of 45 !

Nuts.

[johncsimpson] 25/3/2012 10:38

dugganjoe - 24 Mar'12 - 20:39 - 1472 of 1473

Profit after expensing development was ONLY £25,000. If they hired one more person they would probably lose money.


Or they might make more. Clearly your glass is always half empty . . . Naaargh – you've got your own agenda here mate and anyway, your math's is wrong.

I want IDG to do well and see the price rise and I try to back up my views and opinions. On the other hand, you want IDG to fall and seem to almost make stuff up or represent/misrepresent to suite. I've looked at your posts (and your threads) - in general, you don't have too much to say that is positive as exampled below. Others, elsewhere, have accused you of shorting. I'm not going to go there, because beyond those accusations I have no real evidence. But perhaps others know you better and these 'accusations' ARE to be found on several other threads you frequent.

On this thread and before today, you've made four posts in the last six months, three on the same day back in January (unless I've missed any), when another poster (dvda) took you to task. The January ones first: (Note for readers, the first two are somewhat economical with the truth or there are new definitions for the words 'fall' and 'decline'):

dugganjoe - 24 Jan'12 - 12:01 - 1435 of 1471

Edison forecast profit fall this year

dugganjoe - 24 Jan'12 - 14:08 - 1439 of 1473

Please look up edison forecast and see profit decline. TIA

dugganjoe - 24 Jan'12 - 15:03 - 1442 of 1473

The note shows that this is

Forecast to make £100k only in 2011

NO GROWTH forecast in 2012 with only £100k

Have to say, on a PE of 50 not a buy, a normal tax charge makes the PE 70


After an exchange of views, 'dvda' posted what appears to be the final word:

dvda - 24 Jan'12 - 15:50 - 1443 of 1473

So no profit decline as you had previously stated?


These were the last posts before today but you also posted this in December:

dugganjoe - 3 Dec'11 - 09:37 - 1404 of 1471

flat profit growth is a worry joono


Note - (in case anyone doesn't know or can't make sense of this last, perhaps cryptic post), 'Joono' is the name of IDG's 'Customer Engagement Software' and to say 'flat profit growth is a worry' mystifies me.

Turning a 2010 loss of £962,000 into a 2011 pre-tax profits of £105,000 looks better than 'flat growth' to me.

So perhaps you could explain how you make this (flat growth) assessment.

Have an opinion by all means but selectively taking a few pieces of information in isolation from a whole years results is misleading. But if you do do that, then at least get the facts and math's right – maiden profit after tax was £101,000, capitalisation £74,000 so £27,000 profit and NOT £25,000 which you've now stated twice.

Nor do you mention £46,000 of R&D tax credits. Also, you have a PE of 50 (70 with a normal tax charge whatever that means) on Jan 24 and 400 yesterday (???) – as an aside and also in a Jan 24 post, 'smurfy2001' has the PE at 45,. According to your post, Edison forecast £100,000 profit in 2011, so it's all a bit iffy and vague isn't it?

I research my shares and (in the same careful way I looked up your posts here), I'd like to think I'm 'reasonably' well informed. I make decisions and judgements about purchases accordingly with suitable exit strategies though I do sometimes get it wrong and perhaps I have here.

"There are lies, damn lies and statistics" (often attributed to Disraeli but probably not the truth). But in the end yer pays yer money and takes yer choice.

It's up to others to judge and the little 'errors' you have made are NOT the main point.

Where you're coming from is the real point and at best, you're de-ramping.

[smurfy2001] 24/3/2012 21:01

Will buy at 20p - good luck

[dugganjoe] 24/3/2012 20:39

Profit after expensing development was ONLY £25,000. If they hired one more person they would probably lose money.

[johncsimpson] 24/3/2012 16:44

dugganjoe - 24 Mar'12 - 12:04 - 1470 of 1470

FLAT EARNINGS. PROFIT OF 105K AFTEER CAPITALISATION OF 75K, SO PROFIT JUST 25K

POST TAX PE OF 400 I MAKE IT !!!!


Now THAT is de-ramping !!!!

Selective statistics Sir and little else . . . This is a developing company.

Facts:

Profits up plus 60% to plus £3.5 million

Total revenue for the year ended 30 September 2011 was £3.5 million,
representing a 62% increase from £2.17 million in 2010, helped by revenue growth
across all areas. Gross profit increased to £1,377,000 (2010: £435,000).

Tighter cost controls in the year and, as a result, administrative costs were 8% lower than last year at £1,300,000 (2010: £1,408,000). The Group moved into profitability as a consequence of higher revenues and reduced administrative
costs, generating an operating profit of £101,000 (2010: operating loss £966,000).

The maiden profit before tax was £105,000 (2010: loss before tax £962,000). It should be noted that this includes £74,000 relating to capitalisation of research and development costs . . .

Read it all on

[dugganjoe] 24/3/2012 12:04

FLAT EARNINGS. PROFIT OF 105K AFTEER CAPITALISATION OF 75K, SO PROFIT JUST 25K

POST TAX PE OF 400 I MAKE IT !!!!

[johncsimpson] 24/3/2012 11:05

For interest only - my very short term chart for IDG showing what 'I saw' and why I thought it was about to turn at the start of March. Since then precious little, but the indicators behind the horizontal green arrow now come into play.

I have seen those little spikes (see green vertical arrows) when relating to RHPS previous tips and just before a published issue of RHPS, as being an good indicator of an update which when it happens is usually followed by an upturn in the share's immediate short term fortune.

Got it wrong here but my perceived safety net was the fact that the share has decent fundamentals and was in a downtrend that I had judged to be about to turn anyway (using other indicators). I still hold that view - also, I'm NOT ramping or giving share advice.



Sorry this is off topic here but it relates back to an earlier post. So, edit from Winch2 - 5 Mar'12 - 07:41 - 1457 of 1468 . . . . Thanks for the link to AVN thread . . . .

Again, I'm NOT giving financial advice and I don't ramp or de-ramp so do some research - AVN is a satellite broadband outfit and is now in lift off mode both (figuratively and literally in that order) - could be about to start a long term flight on Monday.

[johncsimpson] 21/3/2012 10:19

I suppose someone will now tell me that this has already been posted. Either that or I'll get an email from RHPS saying my subscription has been terminated.

Live dangerously eh . . . ?

Added 22 March 10:30ish earlier positive AGQ signals have melted away.

[johncsimpson] 20/3/2012 10:18

The same (well almost the same) indicators I'm using here (and BPC, AVN, BOD, SXX), now show AGQ about to move . . . also watching CAZA

Added at 12.40: a few more sellers today - presumably impatient and fed up (never a good trait with shares).

[johncsimpson] 19/3/2012 07:55

More work over the weekend suggests I've bought into BPC too early . . . but IDG still showing it's likely to turn.

[johncsimpson] 16/3/2012 11:35

My indicators have improved some for IDG - 'lack of interest' clearly isn't helping but things can quickly change. I added again on Wednesday, so my average buy price is now just over 47p.

AVN has now started to show signs of movement - any close today above 248 would be good and above 261 would be very good. BOR and SXX are a bit like IDG but also moving up slightly having both responded badly to RNSs this week. Charts can't cope/take account of news i.e. they respond wildly but I topped up both when they fell - BOR proving to be a very good move this morning.

Added at 1.00ish : took my eye off the ball while I was doing the above and watching BPC and lost my chance to sell the BOR I bought this morning for a near 10% gain. If it gets back to the 71p area, I'll sell and put the money here or BPC.

Added at 3:00ish: Bought for 44.4 - not sold BOR yet

5.15 - not yet . ..

5.25ish sold in two lots at +71p and put half into BPC.

[johncsimpson] 14/3/2012 11:08

Re above - I'm afraid IDG (according to my indicators) has gone into a sideways tracking mode - they don't say 'sell' as such but nor are there any real positives as there were two weeks ago so I now class it as hold. There is just no interest here, at the moment, and until there is some market news, this is likely to stay in the doldrums.

I don't want to go off topic too much but as I mentioned three other shares immediately above (and as I'm hardly stopping other meaningful debate here) I would like to update. At the moment, AVN is still positive and the most likely to break up but is stuck around the 240-250p area. BOR and SXX have fallen back to their positions of a fortnight ago in the run up to the point where my indicators suggested they too had turned and were heading north.

[johncsimpson] 08/3/2012 08:36

Different share, but SXX has shown signs of reversing from a similar pattern this morning . . .

added at 8.40 - and also AVN

added at 15.40 - and now BOR

added at 14 20 - the reason for the momentum stalling is probably the lack of transactions recently which I suppose needs some news or broker comment to change things. At least the down moves in my indicators have leveled out . . .

[johncsimpson] 08/3/2012 08:03

Since I posted last friday, three of the five indicators that I use and are usually reliable in flagging up directions, have now rolled over - momentum and stochastics are now going the wrong way. 45p has been a support line/area several times in the past six months - any major movement 'south' from here would be worrying as it would break a support line from October 2010. Key couple of days IMO . . .

[johncsimpson] 05/3/2012 09:53

No probs . . .

[winch2] 05/3/2012 09:37

My clumsy wording - I meant *I* was going off-topic!

[johncsimpson] 05/3/2012 08:38

Morning Winch - wasn't really going off topic, just thought there was a good chance IDG would get a mention and it would rise accordingly which is the half the answer to your question re tips/updates - especially new tips going up.

The other part i.e. the converse and going down re sell recommendations is also true and I agree he has had some big losers which I've alluded to on the AVN thread.

To draw a close on RHPS for now, his two new tips TLA Worldwide (TLA) and Transense Tech (TRT) are both up +30% as I post and are evidence of - well I was going to say his power but somehow I suspect that will be ridiculed. But this was my argument with A N Other, elsewhere and noted in the first paragraph of post 1455.

As I say, that's it until there's actual news from RHPS in the future. You see it is relevant if it effects the price . . .

[winch2] 05/3/2012 07:41

John, we're clearly heading off-topic discussing RHPS here - but here goes as you're one of the few people I've seen with a positive word for it!

Thanks for the link to AVN thread: RHPS clearly polarises people. I took out a trial subscription and dropped it for 2 reasons: I didn't like his style of writing (far too excitable, didn't feel serious - and possibly written for people who bu into a 'feel good' story?); secondly, his record is clearly mixed and while he's had some good profits, there were also some thumping losses too.

Clearly it works for your trading approach - long may it continue ...

(PS - from following him, do you find that the tips almost invariably rise on his recommendation - and presumably the converse when he sells?)