Hutchmed (china) Share Discussion Threads

[thornyone] 15/2/2018 16:06

Thanks all. Hope I'll be around in 10 years time to collect.

[reptile3] 15/2/2018 14:59

thornyone..... the RNS of 10 Jan 2017 refers to phase 1 trials in hematological cancer
as Nerdofsteel mentions. Separately it goes on to say "the company plans to initiate proof of concept clinical trials in the U.S. in 2017"..... for HMPL 523 and arthritis. No mention of a starting date that I can see. Hope that helps.

[thornyone] 15/2/2018 14:00

Nerdofsteel, I am no doctor, but what has this to do with Arthritis?

As already mentioned, I would like to see the results of the specific test that began in January 2017. In other words, is HMPL-523 still on track as an Arthritis drug or not?
We are talking about a $34 billion market here. Or perhaps the rights to this market are no longer owned by HCM?

[nerdofsteel] 15/2/2018 13:18

The Company is very approachable and is keen to help answer queries from strategic long term Investors, of which there are probably not too many.

If a P1 trial is 6 months collecting and analysing the data takes just as long, if not longer.

Here is the current status (as of the 8th Jan) on 523:-

2018
1. Initiate dose expansion proof-of-concept studies in hematological cancer in both Australia & China;

2. Potential presentation of prelim. efficacy data from Phase I/Ib dose escalation expansion studies in hematological cancer

So they expect to present the data at some point this year.

[thornyone] 15/2/2018 08:53

How can a highlight of the 2016 Annual Report (page 6 HMPL-523)be of little importance? It offers a cure for certain forms of Arthritis - a huge market. Read this, dated 2017:

www.hmplglobal.com/en/hmpl-523/

[carcosa] 15/2/2018 08:37

I suspect you have interpreted the RNS announcement. The Australian portion of the trial was stated to be six months, not the entire trial. Further trials will be conducted; Dose-escalation stage (stage 1) and Dose-expansion stage (stage 2). There are 92 patients enrolled. Completion is not expected until February 2020. As thornyone points out these are Phase 1 trials so if it ever comes to market it is unlikely to do so for many many years. As an investor I see HMPL-523 as of little importance at this time.

[lauders] 15/2/2018 08:34

Have you tried to contact a director or HCM's PR representatives at all thornyone? I am not sure how approachable the company are being a new investor here. Would be worth knowing from the long termers please!

[thornyone] 15/2/2018 07:56

Have it your way, Nerdofsteel. The trial you refer to was not fake news. It was an important milestone. But surely, if this is the case, the result of the trial is even more important. The trial began in January 2017 and must have finished mid-2017. It was announced as a six-month trial using 800? patients, not a much longer trial of indefinite length as you infer. It is now 2018. No news of the result of this trial has been forthcoming. What is a simple investor like me to judge from this silence? The trial was mentioned under ‘Highlights' in the 2016 Annual Report. The results of this trial need to be published, whether good or bad.

[nerdofsteel] 14/2/2018 15:34

I don't see any fake news.

"London: Tuesday, January 10, 2017: Hutchison China MediTech Limited ("Chi-Med") (AIM/Nasdaq: HCM) today announces that it has initiated a Phase I trial of its novel spleen tyrosine kinase ("Syk") inhibitor, HMPL-523, in patients with hematological malignancies in China."

Phase 1 trials typically take 2 - 3 years, and P1,2 & 3 combined take 10+ years

Having been invested for 10 years and seen a massive return I'm used to the way early, mid and late stage Biopharma works. Sometimes there can be many weeks and occasionally months without any material news and as the U.S market drives the price, they control drift on lack of news. Unfortunately NASDAQ Biotech's are very news driven. But we have our first ever drug approval imminent, together with lots of other material news due.

I must admit, I am curious as to the size of the secondary offering on NASDAQ and will be asking at the AGM about the use of such large funds.

However, for long term investors the Company Chairman's message is clear:-

"We are making progress step-by-step on all eight of our clinical drug candidates, and we believe that we are very well positioned to create substantial shareholder value.

They have already created substantial Shareholder value and will continue to do so in my opinion

[thornyone] 13/2/2018 11:55

I'm becoming irritated with HCM 'fake news'. I first bought HCM shares last year after news in January that a 'final' six-month trial was about to begin for the drug HMPL-523. Well, its 2018 and nothing more has been heard about this. Perhaps this is not HCM's fault. But I think the reason HCM raised a lot of money in October last year was to keep their company afloat for another few years at shareholder expense.

[lauders] 13/2/2018 08:11

Well I thought the RNS today was worth a bit of reaction re: the share price. Obviously not but odd it is not showing in the header:

[nerdofsteel] 12/2/2018 14:04

good move! I wish I'd sold my entire holding 2 weeks ago, and bought back. I thought about it, and then realised my timing is not very good, especially as we have a lot of major news due.

[my retirement fund] 12/2/2018 13:20

I'm back in here

[lauders] 12/2/2018 13:15

Thank you Nerdofsteel. Appreciate the feedback. Your reply makes sense, so it could be a win-win. If positive the share price will likely increase in turn, if negative it will drop but allow those with the future in mind to add more and benefit from marketing freely and perhaps penning an alternative deal. Can Lilly risk the latter?

Now let's just see what the Nasdaq does today. If it is a good day the share price will recover. If not we could be going down again.

[nerdofsteel] 12/2/2018 09:09

on the 13th March, just like last year, there will be 2 webcasts, one for UK investors and one for US investors, both will be very intersting and will include lots of questions from Analaysts.

I am particularly hoping for questions on the Fruq global rights topic, and BT potentioal for Savolitinib.

If those aren't raised I will table them at the AGM, which is a great event I look forward to every year ;o-)

[nerdofsteel] 12/2/2018 09:07

Lauders,
I expect any decision by Lilly not to take up global rights to Fruquintinib to have some impact. However, this could allow Chi-Med to then go to the global market and strike a quick deal with one of the majors to help plug their dwindling pipelines and patent cliffs. In other words, it could be short term negative but longer term very very positive.

As to the divindend, No, I can't see that happening for many years as the Company is clearly of the view they can deploy capital to make much more Shareholder value. It's also interesting to note that if you look at Gnmab, Incyte, Nektar, Exelixis etc none of them pay a dividend.

[lauders] 11/2/2018 02:36

Also worth noting just how keen AZ appear to be on China and we know their relationship with HCM:

The pharmaceuticals giant has seen sales in China surge 30 per cent as the country has become its second biggest market behind the US. Boss Pascal Soriot is targeting even faster growth. ...

[reptile3] 10/2/2018 14:09

Hi carcosa/Lauders. Thanks for your replies. The decline from around £59 to £43 is approx. 27% and has been exceptionally steep on low volumes and no adverse news. Hence my concern. World indices have fallen but not by 27% or anything like it. thornyone's explanation of shorting is one I hadn't considered and looks like it's had a significant effect. I appreciate all your responses..... you seem better able to cope with this (hopefully) short-lived correction.

[thornyone] 10/2/2018 13:05

Although the indices are falling, HCM has also been subjected to shortselling activity since December. The number of shares currently sold short and registered with Nasdaq (i.e. which have not yet been repurchased) is 116674 as at 9th Feb. This has fallen from a peak of 326257 on Jan 25th. This large decrease hopefully signals that the downward trend is coming to an end.

[lauders] 10/2/2018 10:55

If you look at the chart price chart (link below) and check the boxes for the four US indices mentioned you will see they are all falling in a specific pattern. So as carcosa says I doubt there is need for any statement, especially when results are due on 12th March (see second link).





PS. Found the answer to my dividend question the other day in the annual report, so pretty much as expected:

A.8 Dividend Policy
We have never declared or paid dividends on our ordinary shares. We currently expect to retain all future earnings for use in the operation and expansion of our business and do not have any present plan to pay any dividends. The declaration and payment of any dividends in the future will be determined by our board of directors in its discretion, and will depend on a number of factors, including our earnings, capital requirements, overall financial condition, and contractual restrictions.

[carcosa] 10/2/2018 09:19

Why do you need reassuring? Recent share price decline is in line with world stock market changes.

[reptile3] 10/2/2018 09:09

A reassuring statement from the company would be a help.

[lauders] 09/2/2018 22:58

Perhaps foolish but I bought in on this dip! Seems too steep so either bad news is on the way or it is just a major correction on a frothy share price and is due a change in direction soon. Obviously I am hoping for the latter! RSI makes it a buy at least.

One of the things I found during my due diligence into HCM:

I wasn't aware of the video before even if it is a bit dated now.

[melf] 09/2/2018 15:39

I wonder if the directors will be tempted to have another nibble at this price?

[lauders] 09/2/2018 13:57

Even more tempting now. Too many choices. HCM, GAW or BVXP? Those are the main ones I am watching. FEVR too I suppose. Can't have all of them.