Hutchmed (china) Share Discussion Threads

[nerdofsteel] 05/10/2017 15:43

I wil consider divesting into Juno, Exelexis and Genmab as I focus mainly on Biotechs these days, it is a sector I like because of its growth, albeit with risks

[nerdofsteel] 05/10/2017 15:41

over 30% now, I need to do some adjustments, but the 30% was due to the massive returns - my problem is now worse than Mark Slater but I have total faith in the Company and its Management.....

[samsj] 05/10/2017 10:45

What % of portfolio Nerd if you don't mind me asking? If I'd never top-sliced this I'd be much better off, but was topping 1/3 of portfolio yesterday so sold a little again...

[nerdofsteel] 05/10/2017 07:34

learningtrader, here is my estimate for 2025, based on the following:-

Analayst forecasts of revenue and EBITDA
Sector and geography P/S
Sector and geography EV/EBITDA

2025 @ 16 P/S = $16,736m
2025 @ 86 EV/EBITDA = $25,800m
Blended mcap = $21,268m = 5.7 x todays mcap or circa £256 per share

I've been invested for 10 years, will be invested for a further 10 years and continue to buy regularly

[nerdofsteel] 05/10/2017 07:13

You make a great point mad, they have a cash generative arm which helps fund the drug development side. Most of our peers of similar size on NASDAQ burn lots of cash with regular dilutive placements. You will also find many NASDAQ biotechs are binary e.g. They have one or two drugs only with one shot of success.

[nerdofsteel] 04/10/2017 20:26

Learningtrader yes, will post some data tomorrow, $$20bn by 2025 based on sector P/S, EV/EBITDA etc

[learningtrader] 04/10/2017 13:56

Thanks ever so much mad foetus. I learnt this through Mark Slater's interviews too.

[mad foetus] 04/10/2017 13:54

Hi learningtrader (aren't we all?)I have no idea to be honest. What I do know is that the track record is stellar, Mark Slater massively backs it (probably over 10% of his Fund is now in it) and the drug sales business provides solid cash flow to support the drug development business. That, coupled with the large and coordinated directors buys gives me confidence it is moving higher. How high and how fast I wouldn't like to say, but for a company of its size it is surprisingly little known.

[learningtrader] 04/10/2017 13:48

Given the quiet nature of the board - other than when the share price spikes - I took a position two months ago when it hit GBP 40. I have been trading this on and off for the last 5 years but unfortunately I wish I had just bought and held.
Question for Nerdofsteel and MAd Foetus: In due course (and I mean very long term) do you foresee this to be a GBP 20 Billion company?

[mad foetus] 04/10/2017 13:31

Well Davey, your picture will give anyone south of New York the urge to go out a huntin toffs

[nerdofsteel] 04/10/2017 13:29

rogerphlegm let us educate the Americans shall we?

[nerdofsteel] 04/10/2017 13:26

you will see me, my profile pic is of a certain gentleman better known as the right honorable member for the 18th Century!

[nerdofsteel] 04/10/2017 13:25

I will take a look and have a guess mf!

[mad foetus] 04/10/2017 13:23

Have posted on stocktwits under one of my better nom de plumes

[nerdofsteel] 04/10/2017 13:12

Massive late stage pipeline news due, much of which will be extremely material IMO

Many companies with a much higher mcap would love to have a pipeline this big.

Savolitinib:
1.Phase II data in second-and third-line NSCLC combination with Tagrisso®;
2.Phase II data in second-line NSCLC combinations with Iressa®;
3.Followed by AstraZeneca decision on strategy for Phase III registration and potential Breakthrough Therapy
in NSCLC in combination with Tagrisso®/Iressa®;
4.Molecular epidemiology study (n>300) in PRCC.

Fruquintinib:
5.Potential NDA approval & launch in China in third-line CRC;
6.Phase III FRESCO study full data sub-group analysis in third-line CRC;
7.Complete enrollment of Phase III FALUCA study in third-line NSCLC;
8.Initiate China Phase III study in second-line gastric cancer patients;
9.Initiate U.S. Phase I bridging study in Caucasian patients.

Epitinib:
10.Initiate China Phase III study in first-line EGFR-mutant NSCLC patients with brain metastasis;
11.Initiate China Phase II study in glioblastoma (primary brain cancer).

Sulfatinib:
12.Initiate Phase II expansion study in NET patients in the U.S.
HMPL-523: 13. Initiate dose expansion proof-of-concept studies in hematological expand in Australia and China.
14. Potential presentation of preliminary efficacy data from Phase I dose escalation in hematological cancer.

HMPL-689 (PI3Kδ):
15. Initiate Phase I studies in China in hematological cancer patients;
16. Present Phase I dose escalation data in Australian healthy volunteers

[nerdofsteel] 04/10/2017 13:08

join me on the U.S Bulletin Board folks!?

hxxps://stocktwits.com/symbol/HCM

nimbo1 - purchased on a spike? Not if you hold for a long time. 2200% over 10 years for me so far, 10 more years to go.

[melf] 04/10/2017 12:44

Absolutely correct MF, it is now reactive. Also, the UK price always to me to be a tad lower than the US price, even during our afternoon when both markets are trading.

[mad foetus] 04/10/2017 12:05

It feels to me like the trading dynamic has very suddenly changed and we are now wholly reacting to what happens in the US. Quick catch up in the morning, static until 2.30 and then mirror the ADRs. Quite an odd experience! I wonder if they have major news whether they would announce at 7am or 2.30?

[nimbo1] 04/10/2017 10:50

just took a position here, thanks for the informative posts. hope i haven't purchased on a spike ; )

[nerdofsteel] 04/10/2017 08:40

hxxps://stocktwits.com/symbol/HCM

there is a significant increase in bulletin board watchers from Investors and professional traders in the past couple of months.

A year ago there were a dozen watchers on Stocktwits, 2 months ago there were around 50, now there are 140

[nerdofsteel] 04/10/2017 07:17

This will go up another tenfold in the next ten years IMO

Genmab and Incyte are very similar, just a few years ahead in development cycle but have similar pipelines

Forecast revs in excess of $1bn by 2025, EBITDA circa $300m and the multiples play out to an Incyte type valuation

Fantastic track record

[melf] 03/10/2017 22:12

The US close equates to around 4630p by my calculations. Hopefully a nice rise at the kick off tomorrow.

[mad foetus] 03/10/2017 21:08

Finishing on a high in US but more to the point, volume is well over 100,000. If we continue to trade double the volume is US compared to London we will get valued on US metrics.

[peterm10] 03/10/2017 19:19

Ditto on all of those comments Malcontent .bought a few more last week out of PAYS proceeds when I thought I should have bought a lot more but cant complain.Think I got in on an early mention on SCSW [share tip sheet] who havent followed it since. Evgen look similarly interesting with apologies to those who dont like other stocks mentioned ... anti cancer drugs you just WANT to work

[malcontent] 03/10/2017 19:10

10 bagger for me today

that's worth a nice cool beer

as always, wish I'd put my house on it.....