Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[ghhghh] 26/11/2020 09:48

ngms

you are a liar as I did watch the webcast (albeit not live) and I have read the transcript multiple times.

Another poster clearly proved you hadn't. eg confusing the 2P with the 2C to name just one!

You clearly illustrated your agenda yesterday with your naïve post claiming that CA must be insiders if they know more than us!

[ngms27] 26/11/2020 09:40

Crystal Amber have been such great investors. Here's there current performance from Morningstar:

Years CA Return Sector Return
1 -43.1% 0.5%
3 -42% 4.5%
5 -37.2% 31.1%
10 17.9% 145.3%



How far would you trust them to get an investment decision right?

[sirrux] 26/11/2020 09:39

My understanding on CA, from their own reading of the data, is that they believe there's more oil there. Granted they are not experts, but I presume they talk to experts. Wouldn't be a difficult thing to do.

[thegreatgeraldo] 26/11/2020 09:31

lunanlodge
26 Nov '20 - 09:17 - 21448 of 21449
0 0 0
If CA do not posses information to merit their additional share purchase can someone suggest an alternative viable reason for their action?. The obvious one would be averaging down but not sure that is it.

..They flipped a coin when the wotsit hit the fan.....take the hit & sell up, or double up & hope for the best. They're not going to brief the press with that though, are they!

[lunanlodge] 26/11/2020 09:17

If CA do not posses information to merit their additional share purchase can someone suggest an alternative viable reason for their action?. The obvious one would be averaging down but not sure that is it.

[keepitsimple5] 26/11/2020 09:09

Interesting analyst note:

“In the last twelve months, Hurricane Energy increased its revenue by 887%. That's a strong result which is better than most other loss making companies. So the hefty 89% share price crash makes us think the company has somehow offended market participants. Something weird is definitely impacting the stock price; we'd venture the company has destroyed value somehow. What is clear is that the market is not judging the company on its revenue growth right now. Of course, investors do over-react when they are stressed out, so the sell-off could be unjustifiably severe.”

[ngms27] 26/11/2020 09:03

Well I maintain that HUR Equity is likely worthless within 20 months, unless they can provide a credible plan to produce hydrocarbons in a sustainable and profitable manner to overcome the costs of the AM until contract expiry.

The first major crunch comes mid 2021 when they have to decide whether to extend the AM contract further than mid 2022

The second major crunch comes mid 2022 when they have to pay the convertibles or restructure debt. GHHGHH a holder of the convertibles has already stated that holders may not be aligned to equity as they may consider killing the company to nearly double there money from this point. Alternatively he's suggested a conversion price of 8p. In both scenario's equity takes the pain. That's one of the reasons I personally don't trust GHHGHH as through his convertible holding he's not necessarily aligned with shareholders.

Prior to that one has to look at the economics. In the webcast, you know the one I haven't watched or read the transcript from it's stated that they need 10k bopd @ $40 oil to break even. Sure the stronger oil price has helped but it's now 10 weeks since the company advised on production. We simply do not know whether well 6 has followed the path of 7z in that once the water starts, the R is above 1 and the water rate increases exponentially infecting the oil so less oil is produced and the well will eventually die.

In that time since 9/11 they also haven't come up with a plan to maintain and increase production on the acreage.

They we get to CA who suggested there was considerable oil below OWC. I've never seen this before unless you consider completely separate reservoir.

Assuming they do come up with a plan I'm happy to give it full consideration and if the conditions are right would consider buying the equity again.

[thegreatgeraldo] 26/11/2020 08:58

ghhghh,


Is it conceivable that CA might have identified a significant potential resource? Their equity purchases suggests confidence.

...So HUR, with all the data, missed it; this significant resource below the OWC in the FB.

....Or HUR didn't miss it, but have chosen to just tell CA?

[katiegos] 26/11/2020 08:33

ghhghh post 21439 well summed up

[thedogooder] 26/11/2020 08:31

ngms27..you're a liar, you said you would leave this board alone but here you are still posting almost every day.

[ngms27] 26/11/2020 08:21

ghhghh, you are a liar as I did watch the webcast (albeit not live) and I have read the transcript multiple times.

I've probably done more research on HUR than you or CA.

[encarter] 26/11/2020 08:11

Take a look at I3E. The recent interest in oilers has passed them by. They have cheap oil production and will be declaring their first dividend early next year which is expected to be at least 10 percent of current 5p share price Year high over around 40p. Do some research but don't hang about

[ghhghh] 26/11/2020 08:05

ngms

for the record CA cannot know anything beyond what mere PI's do as otherwise they have broken the law regarding insider trading.

There is massive grey area between the likes of us and 'inside traders'. CA will be somewhere in this zone thanks to better access to HUR and independent expert advice.

Tournesol

Is it conceivable that CA might have identified a significant potential resource? Their equity purchases suggests confidence. Hence unless you claim to know more than CA, with access to superior expertise, then clearly not a 'busted flush' since a hope that CA are correct.

Re NGMS, since I've been posting here he's been relentlessly scaremongering based on lousy/no research. The guy didn't bother to watch the last webcast or even read the transcript. He spins everything in the most negative way. I judge people as I find them

[cobra kai] 25/11/2020 21:14

I got out from the safety of my dojo early morning. Bought at opening and sold 10 mins later for 620 squids profit. I bought with 8% spread :(. I made less in profit that I was willing to lose via the spread.

4 months ago, me and my mate did not even know what was spread.


So I am happy. I am sad I was chasing too many dud shares for last 2 weeks. I should have stuck and followed the experts. I have loads to learn from the leaders here.


CK
Strike First
Strike Hard
No Mercy

[steelwatch] 25/11/2020 18:39

Click the Brent chart in the header for the latest quote.

[lovewinshatelosses] 25/11/2020 18:38

Hi Tournesol. Simple answer: because it's very, very hard to do so. Especially when you have invested heavily, researched intensively and in some cases, been seduced by the story - and let's face it - greed.
In my case, I put too much faith in the seemingly discredited CPR and Dr T.
By the time I finally accepted the reality, my losses were such that it was almost not worth selling, especially having averaged down (and worse, up) repeatedly along the way. What annoys me far more, is having put some in the kids' accounts, even though their holding is a small fraction of my own.
It is going to be an expensive lesson and I have only just recouped the losses here elsewhere (factoring in a 0p now) - but I hope to be a better investor and on the side, trader, than I was before.
I retain my holding here to act as a reminder to my future decision-making.
Glad you also recouped your losses by the way and I hope you are keeping well more generally in these crazy times.

[tournesol] 25/11/2020 17:59

PS

I was motivated to post what I expect to be unappreciated comments because I saw people putting the boot into NGMS. Fact is that he has called HUR's share price movement better than anybody else here. Certainly better than me. Surely he deserves credit for crying wolf long before anybody else spotted the threat.

After a slide of 55p, a rise of 2-3p hardly invalidates his analysis.

And no, I'm not a bear. AIUI bears are people who go short. I am a bull who found out the hard way that my investment decisions where Hur was concerned were wrong. I'm old enough and ugly enough and tough minded enough to admit to myself and others that I was wrong and that I lost quite a lot of cash here. What I don't understand is why people who have likewise suffered losses would be determined not to accept reality and change strategy.

It's like King Canute. As soon as you realise the tide is not going to stop the sensible strategy is to get out of the water not to stand your ground until you are submerged.

[whitedukejay] 25/11/2020 17:51

"I don't believe they know anything I don't and certainly don't understand the Geology as well as some of us do."

you are not Malcolm Pye are you ngm, surely not? but it all adds up disgruntled ex employee who thought he knew more than anyone else.

[super duper] 25/11/2020 17:39

I sold at just above 5.25p, I was a late comer. So I am happy.

[m5] 25/11/2020 17:13

Yea, and that never ever happens does it. LOL.