Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[tournesol] 22/2/2020 01:45

mhin2

You are right but "slow, steady self funded progress" will perhaps deliver less value than the accelerated progress we had all been anticipating. For one thing there is the time value of money. For another there is the increased likelihood of resources being left in the ground as the world moves away from fossil fuels. That might be good for the planet but not so much for investors in Hur.

[mhin2] 22/2/2020 00:51

turnesol...`the best laid plans of men and mice aft gang aglay' (burns), hence why flexibility is required. I am happy to see hur concentrate on lanc, and then halifax...spirit (or other) can continue if they wish, but they ought not to stop hur...and hur has cash for slow, steady, self funded progress.

[tournesol] 22/2/2020 00:39

I like the famous aphorism of General Graf von Moltke - Commander of the Prussian army in the 19th century

"No battle plan survives first contact with the enemy"

In other words no matter how good your plans are, reality will turn out different from your expectations.

The Lancaster EPS was Plan A. The Spirit farm-in triggered a switch to Plan B. Hur is now working on Plan C.

[mhin2] 21/2/2020 23:27

thegreat...it does not matter, hur have enough cash...and I do hope hur has enough suppleness not to break- I think it does..Cash is cool- it enables flexibility...debt is stiff and brittle, thus easily broken.

In accountancy language that is essentially saying that cash flow problems are the reason for most business failures. Hur seem to have a healthy cash position.

I would say `Whats not to like', but I cannot until confirmation that all is going according to plan sufficiently well within the bounds of the inevitability of uncertainty. Hur have already said that, and now lets await the accounts and CMD.

Lets not forget this was an evaluation year after AM hook up, first Lancaster oil and farm in to accelerate Warwick. The results....some good, some dis-appointing...but more learned and sufficiently more than sustainable.

Back to school on Monday!

[thegreatgeraldo] 21/2/2020 23:24

Sure the FPSO will be fine - just not ideal for offloading to a shuttle tanker?

[mhin2] 21/2/2020 23:23

thegreatgeraldo...remember lao tse "All things, including the grass and trees, are soft and pliable in life; dry and brittle in death. Stiffness is thus a companion of death; flexibility a companion of life. An army that cannot yield will be defeated. A tree that cannot bend will crack in the wind. The hard and stiff will be broken; the soft and supple will prevail.”

The AM has withstood a lot...seems to me it is designed for it, and has dealt with it in the past.

[thegreatgeraldo] 21/2/2020 23:19

Deep low pressure system bearing down on the north of Scotland around the end of the weekend

[backinblack80] 21/2/2020 23:16

Yes, it is...ever hopeful..ATB

[mhin2] 21/2/2020 23:04

BackinBlack, I think it will go higher...the figures do not make sense if Dr T is to be believed. I was looking at the debt that TLW has, and I could not believe it...but it is scary.

In the meantime the downward spiral driven by consistent, relentless, small automated trades, has been utilized from the psychology of `Chinese torture' ie designed to sap any idea of the possibility of anything other than the inevitability of defeat. Would you not agree?

[mhin2] 21/2/2020 23:02

Bounty I think it might have been and gone...a lot of satellite shenanigans if marine traffic is the source of info.

[backinblack80] 21/2/2020 22:59

My take...If you think 15p is the low then you would think it would go higher, not lower?
Apologies, if I caused offence, it wasn't intended, apologies again and good luck.

[bountyhunter] 21/2/2020 22:58

Must admit I had expected to see a tanker heading for Lancaster by now.

[mhin2] 21/2/2020 22:49

BackinBlack...I am looking at a base not intraday ...so if you think pointless, fair enough...but I also work on the 15p share issue to Kerogen and CA some years back before first oil.

If you think thats absolutely pointless, fine....but my aim is to work out wht the trading range might be before news....so far 14.55-17

However, your views on the rest of the post would be appreciated.

Also please excuse my ambivalence/reticence to the idea of `superforecasting' which is based on managing and forecasting on sentiment...I prefer data

[backinblack80] 21/2/2020 22:44

'I think 15p might be the low but it might go sub 15 again'

....pointless sentence....

If 15p is the low, presumably, you reckon it will go higher? ....not lower?

[mhin2] 21/2/2020 22:30

avsome, I think 15p might be the low but it might go sub 15 again...at 15p a market cap of £300m, with corp bond/debts of say 230m. However,say, free cash of around £180m (after post 2019 offloads) and say 15,000 bopd at USD50 poo, capex of 30 ...still over usd100m free cash flow. (I am working on a poor case scenario). Does not make sense unless there is a distressed seller...now, who might that be?

Bear in mind just a few days ago some were saying/predicting Poo at below USD50...its above USD58. My calcs are based on Poo of USD50...every USD1 above that is worth marginal cashflow of USD4.3m...so plenty of safety...

[avsome1968] 21/2/2020 22:16

Very disappointing how its gone today thought that was bottom yesterday how wrong I was, topped up here and hum no more buying till I see some returns now , full stop, have a lovely weekend guys hope we have a better week.

[mhin2] 21/2/2020 20:28

Back in buying territory for me, although I must admit I am starting to get a bit concerned that what seems to be a `no-brainer' might have skeletons. However, I still retain faith in Dr T's integrity and competence. The `a'trades are like Chinese torture, and I wonder if a) these are the tactics that the big shorters are using and/or b) Kerogen and/or CA are liquidating their holdings.

In the meantime de-rampers are casting doubt on data reporting oil produced and sales to date (and those imminent) but seem to ignore revenue/cash increase...crazy.

I look forward to springtime...hopefully by then I will have more shares and the unsubstantiated assertions will be history and those that prefer to look at data/empirical evidence in the public domain will be vindicated.

[brownchicken] 21/2/2020 19:14

Sp or treat even. Treet is American Spam!

[brownchicken] 21/2/2020 19:11

Used to work in a "special school" and if the weather forecast any wind greater than 15mph you just knew the usual idiots would become even more so! Just like some of the 'specials' that seem to have blown in here'. Calmer weather next week:) At least its not a full moon too. Pray for some sunshine but failing that the ignore user filter works a treet.

[buzzzzzzzz] 21/2/2020 19:02

Just filter the idiots they will get bored!

[bocase] 21/2/2020 18:53

Please can the idiots be moderated before all the valued posters leave and the BB is ruined forever I am sure I speak on behalf of many.

[the patient investor] 21/2/2020 18:29

rumours that monday there is no trading? the usual idiot or is it true?

[ffsadvfn] 21/2/2020 18:29

Been away for a few days and just thought I would look back in.
What has happened to this bb?
Where did all the dross arrive from? BB getting as bad as the last one, if not worse.
Foul mouthed,illiterate fools.

Sorry to see the drop today. I was thinking after the last couple of days things were on the up.

Good weekend and ATB.

[the patient investor] 21/2/2020 18:18

talk1234

why just "moderated" and not evicted for ever, the idiot is spamming every site?

[hello31] 21/2/2020 17:59

Sorry Steelwatch, I should have said another top poster Laser. Will Edit now.