Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[ngms27] 03/1/2020 14:48

Agreed for me it's not a single issue, it's a combination.Reminds me of Soco shooting ducks in a pond and then found nothing but dusters. I called Deep E a failure when others thought it was a large success.It's giving me the same feeling here, sometimes it's what RNSs don't say.

[thegreatgeraldo] 03/1/2020 14:36

OTOH, it's only 6 months since first oil.....the water cut at 7Z may have stabilised & may decline from current levels.....Warwick put me off, firstly Warwick Deep, then the still unexplained Warwick West

[solooiler] 03/1/2020 14:35

In geological terms, 5 months of information about any trend is about as conclusive as a trump tweet

[ngms27] 03/1/2020 14:33

Doesn't explain why in 5 months water cut has increased > 300% nor have they offered an explanation. In a well connected reservoir it should reduce if perched over time not dramatically increase forcing a shut in.So there current comments are contradictory at best.Hence my concern and one reason for selling.

[thegreatgeraldo] 03/1/2020 14:19

& according to the company,from its most recent update,

..."In a prior individual well test, the 7Z Well flowed at approximately 9,400 barrels of oil per day with a stable water cut within a range of between 25-30%....

& ..."The Company is confident that the water cut observed is related to perched/stranded water, based on temperature data, lack of rate-dependency, and water production behaviour after shut-in periods."

As we know, once you find water in a well, it generally travels thru the reservoir more readily than oil...... so currently, one wet well, one relatively dry one. Worth watching!

The fundaamental question for me though is whether the Lancaster & the last Lincoln well are fairly "typical" & that the Warwick wells were the exceptions...... or whether it's t'other way around?

[snowcameron] 03/1/2020 14:07

Have they commissioned the produced water system? If not, then this could be one reason not to flow 7z.

[ngms27] 03/1/2020 14:05

No not guessing, I've found the presentation now from CMD on 11/7/197Z produced a maximum 16500 bopd with a water cut of 8%So in 5 months it's gone from:16500 with 8% water cutTo9400 with 25 to 30% water cutI make that over 300% and probably nearer 400%

[thegreatgeraldo] 03/1/2020 13:53

ngms,

So you're guessing with your water cut "increasing over 300%" comment?.... & you've really got me scratching my head with your reference to vertical fractures...

.."If there are large vertical fractures which has been intimated at this could be breakthrough from the aquifer 400m below." (post 7164)

Aren't large vertical fractures central to the FB model?

[ngms27] 03/1/2020 13:51

The other thing to be wary of is that they aren't going to produce from 7Z until the end of January at least when the ESPs are commissioned as per the RNS on the 13/12/2019If they weren't concerned why would they do that given they now have two flow lines in place, will reduce production/revenue and could have continued testing?In my opinion they aren't sure enough the aquifer hasn't broken through despite being 'confident' it's perched water.Then as we know the ESPs will mask this but will reality bite?

[amaretto1] 03/1/2020 13:51

I'm with u ... ive closed.

[ngms27] 03/1/2020 13:45

Yes, sort of.RNS 2/9/2019Most recent aggregate stabilised water cut is 7.5% operating through a single flow line so cannot be attributed between wells.RNS 13/12/196 well flowing 14,700 bopd with minimal water cut7Z well flowing 9,400 bopd with 25 to 30% water cutSo it's possible that 7Z had approx 15% water cut on the 2/9/2019 but probably lower.The Company have previously stated the model is for 7 to 10% water cut. Clearly they have got it wrong and it must affect reserves at the very least.I'm also pretty sure a previous presentation stated total water cut was 8% and thus as modelled, clearly water cut has materially increased in the last 3 months and will start to show through in the OGA figures.

[pogue] 03/1/2020 13:25

Thank you for your reasons on why you have sold out mgms. I for one appreciate people logically arguing the opposite case and challenging my views to make me think about my investment.

[bountyhunter] 03/1/2020 13:19

yes and no dates mentioned there either

[stepone68] 03/1/2020 13:19

ngms27 has no agenda. I've been following his postings here and on the Motley Fool for over 20 years now and he's always appeared open, honest and genuine. In the early days he wrote articles about how to program in Excel VBA, which I now do for a living, so I owe him quite a bit for that. Although, I did follow him into Hurricane - he's not perfect :-)

[thegreatgeraldo] 03/1/2020 13:11

ngms27
3 Jan '20 - 12:37 - 7179 of 7182
0 3 0
Water cut is up from 7% to 25 to 30% on the 7z well.

.....Are you sure about that?

[ngms27] 03/1/2020 12:54

Excell1, not that old chestnut.I'm perfectly allowed to express my opinion, state reasons for selling and yes also continue to post even if others don't like it. I've made it clear I won't be buying back in without major positive news flow which will be after the CMD at the very least.

[bountyhunter] 03/1/2020 12:42

and levan1 who has posted twice now around the same time with very similar supportive comments but only 6 times ever in six months
'doth protest too much' springs to mind

[excell1] 03/1/2020 12:42

One has to ask oneself just what your agenda is ngms27.I don't think you have to be a rocket scientist to guess.

[ngms27] 03/1/2020 12:37

Water cut is up from 7% to 25 to 30% on the 7z well.Consider two reservoirs connected to a common pipe, one contains water and one contains oil.If the oil reservoir is large and the water reservoir much smaller (ie perched water) and both are equally as well connected. What should happen with production?As oil and water are produced the pressure will drop in each reservoir, all things being equal. Given the oil reservoir is much larger it's pressure reduces less which should mean over time water cut reduces.What we actually have is water cut increasing over 300%. When will the rise in water cut stabilise or will it carry on increasing? Does this infer the waters better connected? Under greater pressure (aquifer)?HUR to date have given no explanation as to why this is the case or why this could be the case. It will be very interesting to see what they say at the CMD. I suspect nothing meaningful.The ESPs of course will pump oil from further down the well bore masking the issue.

[jimarilo] 03/1/2020 12:35

excell13 Jan '20 - 12:16 - 7175 of 7176
0 1 0
That's 4 posts this morning to tell us that you are out of HUR ngms27.One post at most would have done.Bye

Not his fault, if he keeps being invited back into the conversation

[levan1] 03/1/2020 12:30

I hear you ngms, as I’m sure others do. Falling in love with a stock is one thing but believing in facts is another. Your speculation regarding the water cut may carry weight but I am not qualified to back that up. If I sold out of this I wouldn’t stick around here. If you decided not to put your lotto numbers on would you watch the draw?

[prefab] 03/1/2020 12:17

From the operational update 13/12. Dr Trice CEO said.". I am delighted with the performance of the Lancaster EPS and look forward to presenting what we have learnt and what we expect from this reservoir at our Capital Markets Day in March. The results of the individual well tests have surpassed our expectations."This statement is completely at odds with what's being postulated elsewhere, his position at HUR would be untenable if this was found to be knowingly not the case at the time of writing regardless of his perceived importance to HUR.

[excell1] 03/1/2020 12:16

That's 4 posts this morning to tell us that you are out of HUR ngms27.One post at most would have done.Bye

[thegreatgeraldo] 03/1/2020 12:13

ngms27
3 Jan '20 - 12:10 - 7173 of 7173


Just consider that hydrostatic pressure should favour oil over perched water especially if the reservoir is well connected. So why is water cut increasing?

...Simple mistake.... water production has been increasing (based on published OGA numbers up to October). That doesn't mean water cut is increasing, as it seems very unlikely both wells were being produced continuously since first oil....