Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[gibso6767] 19/11/2017 07:51

Steve , outstanding post , wish I was more adept at posting , thoroughly agree

[steve73] 19/11/2017 03:50

gibso ^^ I agree.

I would prefer that we focus on delivering some actual production rather than discovering more potential reserves for a number of reasons.

1. Until the potential for long-term production from the FB is demonstrated, then these potential reserves (or Contingent Resources) can never be classed as Proven & Probable (P2), and as such will only carry a relatively low valuation at best.

2. Given the size of the fields and the depths of the oil columns, combined with the "porosity" that's been identified locally to the existing wells and the recoveries being assumed, there is a high probability that these field could be producing for many decades - even with a number of production hubs. (Consider our close neighbours, BP's Foinaven & Schehallion. These have been in production for almost 2 decades, and the redevelopment as Quad 4 suggests there is a further couple of decades of worthwhile production still available there.)

3. On a global perspective, over this longer term (i.e. a few decades), there is a high probability that renewable energy will become much more prevalent, and oil demand will almost certainly fall below available supply, ultimately leading to large quantities of reserves remaining un-produced.

4. If this forecast of future oil usage is correct, then once demand starts to decline, even the then current production will only be marginally economic. Future Reserves will be worth little (due to the cost to develop them), and unproven "Resources" almost certainly be almost worthless.

In summary.. I believe there is a window of opportunity for perhaps the next 15 years or so in which to earn a reasonable revenue from oil production. HUR are well placed to capitalize on this period provided we focus on delivering large scale production in the next 5 years or so... or positioning ourselves for a sale on that basis. Cash spent on identifying further resources that probably wouldn't get developed for more than 10 years is unlikely to be worthwhile.

Remember, it's only when oil is produced can it be sold (and the past couple of year demonstrates how fickle that market can be when in imbalance); oil in the ground with no production facilities brings no cash without a willing buyer.

(As an aside, the upcoming Aramco float may give a clue as to the longer term future for undeveloped reserves).

[gibso6767] 18/11/2017 22:53

If I was HUR my full concentration would be EPS , because it pains to say this that if it doesn’t happen within 11 months it will then be Spring 2019 , so no income till then , the lions share of $530 million dormant .

Neither do I beleive that we will reach lofty highs with our EPS , I For one cannot see anything major until EPS has been part proven .
Any F/O pending terms will be proving up other acreage , but hopefully once an income is ongoing a RBL for an extra producer

[shabbadabbadoo2] 18/11/2017 22:07

Also, the expenditure for full field development could be used for explo instead. I'm sure that's what the good doctor would prefer! HUR could build a massive company with huge reserves but producing relatively low amounts. I know that won't happen but I would not complain if that is what they chose to do.

[shabbadabbadoo2] 18/11/2017 22:03

But if HUR was to bid successfully for new blocks, then any serious expenditure would not be required for years - by which time the geology would be better understood / trusted, and the ability for HUR to farm-out and/or borrow on the strength of reserves would be infinitely better than it is today (assuming everything goes OK).

[gibso6767] 18/11/2017 16:44

Re Bidding , with what we know I’d be happy with what we have , if Whirlwind And Typhoon where lost due to no expenditure within timeframes I wouldn’t lose any sleep , looking at our mcap and cash at hand I’d say these assets aren’t even considered in our price

[greyingsurfer] 18/11/2017 16:40

Are HUR bidding on any new blocks? I would have thought a huge income stream from mid-2019 would give the company ample bullets to give any new area a good look.

It won't be that huge a cash flow - certainly good, but not huge. And there is a lot of work to do. More appraisal on the GLA and GWA to get the ready for FID, plus other appraisal and explo on the existing acreage. Plenty to do.

Of course that could change at any time with a farm out/sale, but probably not for a year or two.

Plus of course that might not stop them from bidding for suitable blocks if they came up - they might not need to commit to significant expenditure for a few years anyway.

Peter

[gibso6767] 18/11/2017 16:33

1S yes I agree so his comments re WoS seem strange

[laserdisc] 18/11/2017 15:53

paul bj jnr rig will be on the move possibly next week not sure where its heading maybe back to ABERDEEN or bp are relocating another area whatever seem to be on schedule for March takeup ,NORMOND, Prosper , Drot, & Ranger out of Bergen and Montrose for shipwatchers if we have any left on here

[1solon] 18/11/2017 15:39

I'm sure Parkmead relinquished some of the blocks HUR currently enjoy.

Can't remember where i read it tho.

[gibso6767] 18/11/2017 15:15

Shab , mm What with other acreage and the clock ticking I’d say that with Typhoon and Whitlwind untouched and conventional sandstone ( correct me if wrong )?, then I doubt HUR have the cash , time or inclination to buy more that will probably lay dormant .
Uncertain of time frame but one of those two assets has to have an enviro programme carried out if wanting to progress with them ie Exploration, appraisal etc .


And to put the cat amongst the pigeons it’s not as if they ie seven sisters are breaking down our door anyway .

Current ongoing work ie CPR , On Site Operations , Dubai Work on Akou Mizou and financial Work , FTSE Main Listing is enough on our plates .

If it’s in regard to my asking for the PMG post to be posted , it was just Tom Cross’s Comment re WoS that intrigued me

[shabbadabbadoo2] 18/11/2017 15:04

Are HUR bidding on any new blocks? I would have thought a huge income stream from mid-2019 would give the company ample bullets to give any new area a good look.

[gibso6767] 18/11/2017 12:05

Thanks Steel

[steelwatch] 18/11/2017 11:50

Sonofthebull
Posts: 713
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Opinion:
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Price:
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Herald/Scotland
Today 09:35
OIL and gas entrepreneur Tom Cross has said the Parkmead Group he runs is eyeing North Sea acquisitions worth up to $100 million (£76m) and exploration acreage off Shetland.

The company is also alert to opportunities in the wider energy sector including renewables.

Mr Cross underlined his belief in the potential for Parkmead to generate big returns on its investments in the North Sea where he reckons the company has been making good progress amid the crude price plunge.

“We totally believe in the UK North Sea and we are pushing ahead,” said Mr Cross. He joined Parkmead in 2010 following the £1.9bn sale of the Dana Petroleum business he founded to Korea National Oil Corporation.

After Parkmead announced its production operation returned to profit in the year to 30 June, Mr Cross said the company was in discussions about a range of acquisition opportunities in the North Sea.

It is talking to majors.

Deals under consideration range from small bolt-ons to acquisitions in the $50m to $100m bracket.

Mr Cross said Parkmead is also preparing to be “very active” in the latest UK licensing round which will close later this month, with a focus on areas it knows well such as West of Shetland.

He noted majors such as BP and Shell are investing heavily off Shetland.

The enthusiasm for the North Sea partly reflects the conviction Parkmead is particularly well placed to benefit from the shake up in the area triggered by the sharp fall in the crude price since 2014.

This has left some firms prepared to sell assets at attractive prices. Parkmead has completed seven acquisitions since Mr Cross took charge. It has no debt.

Mr Cross noted that cuts in activity in the North Sea following the crude price fall have led to big changes in the services market that have helped improve the economics of North Sea developments.

The cost of some services has fallen by around 45 per cent. Some services companies are prepared to invest in projects alongside oil and gas firms.

There is an increased willingness among oil and gas firms to work with each other.

Parkmead is talking to leading, internationally renowned service companies about plans to develop the Perth area fields in the Moray Firth. This could involve developing facilities that fields operated by other firms could use.

The company said: “Parkmead has received financial proposals for major parts of the development, reducing the capital expenditure needed to bring the project onstream.”

Mr Cross expects it will finalise a field development plan next year.

Parkmead will maintain a focus on the oil and gas business in the areas it knows best off the UK and in Holland.

But Mr Cross said the company is mindful the drive to develop cleaner energy sources is creating demand for renewables. It may make sense to invest in such areas.

Parkmead made a gross profit of £1.2m in the year to June, after losing £4.6

[gibso6767] 18/11/2017 10:02

For those like myself that had delivered the Lancaster Field Early Production System ( EPS ) Environmental Statement March 2017 ,
Section 11 Hydrocarbon spills page 11-8
11.4.3 Crude Oil Spills ,
‘Studies into the potential flow rates during an uncontrolled blowout section have been carried out .This predicted that under worst case unrestricted flow conditions, 13,370m3 Of oil per day maybe released during a well blowout event. ‘

Yes it would decrease but slowly etc , has anyone any other similar details of other wells etc ?

I bought into Parkmead yesterday PMG , this is a firm ran by Tom Cross of DANA Petroleum fame , on the lse PMG BB there’s a post timed at 0935 by Sonofthebull titled Herald / Scotland well worth reading for more reasons , if a more adept poster could put it here I think it would be useful and create a bit of chat .

[laserdisc] 18/11/2017 09:50

you probably have this link
this is another link but needs registration


6/11 POST 23083 discussed the stock on loan, have not got an updated figure since 31/10
GB00B580MF54... 31/10/17
HURRICANE ENERG OR
144942451.09
9.84%

I also have this link for OTC markets which seemed to double in June 17 but has remained constant since seems to have a long dated closure ,

[fatnacker] 18/11/2017 08:46

I think it would be suicide to short this share meaningfully at this level knowing there's significant cooperate interest in the discovery, how much stock is there on loan? I have an updated short position spreadsheet but hurricane doesn't feature on it.

[shabbadabbadoo2] 18/11/2017 00:14

"Doubt he be selling after affecting price to go lower unless he shorts."

You do understand that selling and shorting are the same thing?

[kandymans1] 17/11/2017 22:05

26.75pFfs from 67p .Worrying but lets hope CPR steadying ship.Is RB selling now he threw toys out of pram.Rightly or wrongly time will tell.Doubt he be selling after affecting price to go lower unless he shorts.40p be more comforting but to see oil at 62 and we in red is worrying but i sit hoping things pick up .Km

[jimarilo] 17/11/2017 16:50

"I would imagine there'll be a decent amount of short closing today. The week traders don't usually keep positions open over the weekend."

"2m traded today with someone scooping up all the cheap stock. We seem to have a far eastern buyer who stops around midday. Let’s hope that continues!"

If the above posts were to be believed, the share price could have been much lower ;-)

[laserdisc] 17/11/2017 16:20

latest shipwatch Salvanguard today leaving Dubai for Sri Lanka ,AM may eventually be returning under its own power

[davidblack] 17/11/2017 13:57

Laserdisc like the rest of us we were "Stifeled"

[rackers1] 17/11/2017 12:18

errr its 'you're'

never take anyone seriously who has no clue about their 'your' and you're'

ignorant twit


oh and its silence .... not silents

good grief wtf did they teach you at school?