Hunting Share Discussion Threads

[apad] 30/1/2015 09:27

Mum dipped a tentative toe in at 390p.
I blame it on the gin.
apad

[kaffee] 24/1/2015 09:19

Anything that gives up nearly 8% in a day with no real news around and generally benign FTSE on the day can't be in that great shape.

[edjge2] 22/1/2015 18:19

false bottom?

[edjge2] 20/1/2015 12:53

oil down oil services up. Odd?

[edjge2] 12/1/2015 21:35

falling knife but bounce should be dramatic

[jack jebb] 12/1/2015 11:02

Had a small nibble this morning. Will buy more if it pukes down to 375p.

The papers will have you believe that oil is finished. Given its one of the few commodities that everyone uses, everywhere, around the world, I suspect that is unduly alarmist.

By the time the perception is rife that oil has bottomed, most of the quality oil and related shares will be at least 50% higher.

[jeffcranbounre] 06/1/2015 18:49

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Game Digital #GMD
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Rolls-Royce #RR.
LondonMetric #LMT
Hunting #HTG
Meggitt #MGGT
BP #BP.
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Galliford Try #GFRD
Senior #SNR
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[apad] 15/12/2014 09:43

Tintins have a different view:

Deutsche Bank cuts Hunting to hold from buy, target cut from 900p to 700p.
Deutsche Bank lifts Weir Group to buy from hold, target cut from 2725p to 2340p.

- the autobots have kicked up both this morning.

apad

[citymohawk] 15/12/2014 09:12

agreed APAD. To be honest I think we are probably sitting in sentiment zone now. Another 100p off maybe sounds like a bigger ask than it actually is. The other side of the coin is the sentiment required to drive it back up north. I think that day will be far far away now.

[apad] 13/12/2014 08:41

CM
Good post. I see you agree with my Mum that pushing 5% backwards yield is about right.
The 3-year old increase in borrowings also makes HTG less robust.
Sentiment, I suspect, will drive it down to your price region and possibly beyond.
News about oil junk bonds affecting banks and May market panic about a possible Labour government wil all help.
apad

[citymohawk] 12/12/2014 22:18

I did a little more digging to understand this reaction. I may be stating the obvious but the price seems to be reacting to 2015's expected numbers. Even if we finish Dec at this kinda $55-60 range, I can't see the average sale receipts for the diggers to be much different compared to the last four years. Here are my calcs for average price since 2004 $41, 2005 $57, 2006 $66, 2007 $71, 2008 $102, 2009 $64, 2010 $80, 2011 $95, 2012 $93, 2013 $97 and 2014 $96

So for 2014, we should see the year end pretty good with a conservative £800m. The ratio of EPS to Revenue has averaged about 4.5% over the last 4yrs or so with a rising trend. So, there are clearly some efficiencies being made in opEx. Even at a 4% ratio and some panic hedging in OpEx we should see about £0.32 at the end of this year. 32p on the current price gives me about a 6-7% earnings yield.

The issue is that the average revenue for 2007-2010 was about £400m with average sales receipts for diggers around $80 p/b. (these are my own crude calcs) - The median oil prices for these years were $70, $105, $67, $80 respectively. If we look at how oil has been rolling over the last 6 months and likely to be rolling over the coming 6 months I think the project scale back will be monumental and we'll see quarterly revenue be pro-rata to target around £400m for the y/e 15. Now, I shoot myself in the foot here trying to calculate forward yields because these calculations are raw and don't take account of new clients and thus inventory numbers. However, I'm sorry to say that I'll be sticking this one out now as I'm getting about 25-30x on the forward PE. It's nice to see family buying and that shoots me in the other foot, but sadly HTG would need to be 375p for me to consider buying in.

[apad] 12/12/2014 10:27

She is of like mind to you fozzie - I reckon she's after another percent on the yield!
apad

[fozzie] 12/12/2014 09:56

Recent family top up down almost 75K in a week!

[fozzie] 12/12/2014 09:54

Another 5% knocked off the price, I want to average down but with daily falls i am not yet minded to. Is your Mum in yet Apad?

[apad] 11/12/2014 13:42

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11286161/The-euro-is-heading-for-disaster-what-luck-for-David-Cameron.html

[apad] 11/12/2014 13:38

An athletic 71, red.
Mum is 96 'n' risin'.
Wonderful that the Tintins are piling onto the bandwagon.
Sooo... many good companies dropping I'm having to sit on my hands.
Roll on a Grexit and a deal with Iran.
apad

[apad] 11/12/2014 12:51

pppps
Doesn't hedge though.

[apad] 11/12/2014 12:50

ppps
OT
Primaries: DGO looks tempting at a 4% yield and stuffed with cash.
Divvy comes in dollars after irish taxes though.

[apad] 11/12/2014 12:47

pps
Contemplate the battlefield if iranian oil hits the market - gulp.
apad

[apad] 11/12/2014 12:44

Bottoms are only visible in the rear view mirror, Woody.
apad
ps
Now if Uncle Warren had said that it would be all over the Net for years and years….

[woodcutter] 11/12/2014 12:22

interesting statement from POS today



suugests the drop for the oil sector excluding shale is well overdone medium term.

APAD your mum might not get 5% yield if there's substantial cut backs in sector capex spend;-)

I figure we're near the bottom now, big doji candle forming today.

Some oil producers looking cheap too AMER?

Woody

[apad] 10/12/2014 16:24

htg more or less in lockstep with WEIR over the last 6 months (down 35/40%)
Oil industry buffs seem to be suggesting that supply and demand will not start to cycle the oil price until the second half of next year, so HTG will be reporting in March next year - not a good conjunction.
apad