Hummingbird Resources Share Discussion Threads

[golden prospect] 04/8/2021 11:02

Drilling campaign paid from HUM cashflow

7 JULY 2021

"14 new holes drilled at SE continue to show excellent high grade open pit potential "

[swanvesta] 04/8/2021 10:53

May be talking b*llocks but these great intervals from Cora look to be at very steep angles, at least relative to the vein/seam, with true width only 5m or so. I'm new to the mining space, so interested to know if there a rule of thumb to suggest how much gold might be inferred (roughly) at those high grades?

[golden prospect] 04/8/2021 09:59

Well done corrientes.

If I was into pairs trading it would be to Short Cora and go Very Long Hum!

[corrientes] 04/8/2021 09:56

I've built up, for me anyway, a large holding in Cora over the years, partly because of their backers, but I've always been hesitant about investing in Hum on account of the latter's management. Maybe this will change, but it seems to me that share prices of smaller companies are driven as much by sentiment towards a company's owners, as by
the results. The day a real change takes place in Hum, will be the day I'll reconsider. Only IMO of course.

[golden prospect] 04/8/2021 09:38

Cora at 16p gives valuation £39m

Re-rate at HUM should be ferocious when folk realise that cora the explorer has a neighbour with a gold mining asset, debt free and PRODUCING 100Koz/yr !!!!!
(market seems to ignore the other assets)

[andrewsr] 04/8/2021 09:15

Good luck to Cora shareholders, at least it's good to see Mali isn't a drag on sentiment.

[cj91] 04/8/2021 08:52

Well now they're valued at almost c£40m and they do not have even have a DFS yet- all this based on some great drill results where they are targeting over 1mil oz of gold.

I have nothing against Cora and want holders there to do well but it just goes to show how sentiment works in AIM. Having said that every undervalued company I know eventually gets picked up and will come good. HUM in comparison have a producing asset of over 100koz, that is debt free and expected to close the year with c£30mil in the bank. They have another asset with mining licences in place, construction to start end of the year which will be full funded internally and through debt, producing a further 100koz from 2023 onwards. A further 3rd asset that has a NPV of over a billion dollars with the JV partner taking all financial commitments through to DFS (and led by Ian Stalker who is one of the best in the business). All this for £72mil?? It doesn't take long for sentiment to change and at current prices, possibly the biggest bargain on AIM in my honest opinion.

[golden prospect] 04/8/2021 08:06

Cora price on fire at 14.25p giving valuation #35m.
Makes HUM look ridiculously cheap.

[borderterrier1] 03/8/2021 21:01

Plat Pillock Wow!!!! Step back in amazement! So THAT'S what FCF means! What a fart smella you are PH. I guess we should have listened when you told us (back in December 2020, I think) that this will be a 10 bagger by the end of the month? Ah well, can't win 'em all I suppose? Perhaps you should let cj91 know? He's a stickler for "fundamentals" even though in the last 7 years all the fundamentals that have been posted by other "shrewd investors" here haven't moved the share price Sorry, that's wrong, I appologise. The fundamentals HAVE moved the share price .......... but unfortunately it is down instead of up. LOL

[plat hunter] 03/8/2021 20:02

What is Free Cash Flow (FCF)?Free cash flow (FCF) represents the cash a company generates after accounting for cash outflows to support operations and maintain its capital assets. Unlike earnings or net income, free cash flow is a measure of profitability that excludes the non-cash expenses of the income statement and includes spending on equipment and assets as well as changes in working capital from the balance sheet.Interest payments are excluded from the generally accepted definition of free cash flow. Investment bankers and analysts who need to evaluate a company's expected performance with different capital structures will use variations of free cash flow like free cash flow for the firm and free cash flow to equity, which are adjusted for interest payments and borrowings.

[borderterrier1] 03/8/2021 19:10

cj91 Is plain English your second language? If something obviously isn't working after 7 years, I would suggest it's time for a change. Most intelligent investors would agree with that I believe? But I guess you don't fall into that category?

[cj91] 03/8/2021 19:05

Lol! I don’t think there is one post on fundamentals that you’ve posted in the last 12 months. Can you share one please? Just one!

You’re full of just non sense. Get a life old man!

[borderterrier1] 03/8/2021 19:00

cj91 You're not listening....again. Quote:- "Over the years my observations here re "fundamental etc, etc.have been valid ones." Meaning that there is no point in repeating them over and over again but they have ALL since proved to be correct.......hence the current share price And unfortunately, (I've been here since 2015) and as TBTT also says, I can't see that changing much with the current Ceo and management. Why would it? If something isn't working after this length of time, logically changes need to be made? why does that seem to be so hard to understand for you?

[cj91] 03/8/2021 18:52

Lol! Generic comments again. Do you want to indulge your brain with some exercise/activity and engage in a debate as to why my projections are wrong? It baffles me how you can speak so much without making any sense whatsoever. You post countless posts each week on this forum yet not a single post on fundamentals or a poignant, reasonable argument. As someone else just commented, people see through you and your absurd posts.

[borderterrier1] 03/8/2021 18:39

cj91 Wrong again I'm afraid, just like your projections here. I don't profess to know it all and over the years may observations here have been valid ones. However, on most occasions, new investors tend to try to ignore the objectivity of all the valid points in the hope that this will come good. The long term investors understand that unfortunately, after this length of time, it probably won't,

[jongreenfingers] 03/8/2021 17:02

"Nothing would please me more than to see this finally head N". There are literally thousands of obsessive, foaming at the mouth, ranting posts on here from you, which indicate otherwise. I get the distinct impression that you struggle to hide a gleeful semi, every time this falls. Time to move on. Develop a shouty obsession with skateboarders or something. Your ranting here is not a good look and not one of us believes that you are here to save us, as you claim.

[cj91] 03/8/2021 16:58

Ah Mr Border Terrier! The self proclaimed 'know it all'. Again he comes along sprouting generic commentary about price and history. A 10 year old can do a better job in analysing a share than you can.

I'm not going to waste my breath on your 'what about the SP?', 'The share price is going backwards' non sense. You need help and for your sake I hope you get it.

[borderterrier1] 03/8/2021 16:33

cj91 Heard it all before from others many, many times. You can spout facts, figures, issue glowing 72 page reports about this etc. as much as you like. The FACT is this share price is going backwards and it continues to do so. Who would you blame that on?

[cj91] 03/8/2021 16:15

Correction to state that HUM contributes to $20-25m (through internal cash flows) with Coris Bank providing $60mil.

[cj91] 03/8/2021 16:13

TBTT - Let me simplify this for you in terms of how I believe the financing will pan out for Karoussa.

Total Capex - $100m (includes $10m of contingency)
Current Machinery/Equipment Replacement Value - $20m
Revised required Capex - $80m
Assuming an additional contingent expense of $5m for any other measures provides a final full requirement of c$85m.

HUM's cash position as at 30th June, 2021 - $12.4mil. We understand that there is no debt on the books. Assuming a $1350 AISC for H2 (should be better but lets assume this cost) and a production of c55koz at a gold price of $1800, provides further cash pile of c$24.75m. My forecast is that HUM has c$35mil in cash by Dec 2021.

I expect HUM to contribute $20mil (which will be available by end of Q3 - i.e. Sep 30th) with Coris providing the remaining $60mil. Incidentally $60mil is also the amount Coris provided for the Yanfolila asset. That was on the following terms a)9% interest rate b) No hedging or royalty requirements c) 12 month capital repayment deferral. Now all this was when the gold price was much lower, at a time when HUM was still an explorer and had no prior experience to show they could repay the loan etc.

My estimates would be that Coris would provide very similar terms of 8 - 9% interest rate, no requirement to hedge or royalties and although we wouldn't need a capital repayment deferral, we would probably get that too.

I also suspect that the senior debt facility will be drawn down in phases with $30m drawn down first and HUM's cash contribution of $10mil making it a first stage Capex total of $40mil and 4-6 months down the line, a further $30mil draw down and cash contribution of $10mil internally.

Overall I'm extremely confident that once the Capex estimates are out, and the financing is arranged there will be a significant uplift to HUM's underlying value.

I believe it is a 12 month build so assuming a Q1 2023 Karoussa first pour, HUM will be a 200koz+ producer with combined AISC of c$1100/oz and if as I expect gold to be around $2000+, there are some significant cash flows to be had!

[borderterrier1] 03/8/2021 15:43

Plat Hunter No, we are not the same person. We are two separate long term speculators that understand (unlike the new investors) the historic hype surrounding this. Nothing would please me more than to see this finally head N but I suspect it won't. I don't believe TBTT is still invested here but unfortunately, I am. I sincerely hope I am proved wrong but I'm afraid that after 7 years this will once again fizzle out like a damp squib.
cj91 Yes, you are correct, I spout the same old nonsense about Dan Betts, Hum management and past failings. Please don't forget that it isn't my credibility that is on the line here. After this length of time the abysmal share price proves that theirs is.

[cj91] 03/8/2021 15:38

Wishful thinking? Well, that's more a reflection of your posts. You might have experience in raising money but I have experience in financial services and advisory too. I know how exactly these deals work. Whilst your arguments on the risk appetite works for a lender, you cannot assume all lenders work on the same metric. My point was around the fact that HUM has enough cash generation to satisfy and equity contribution than requiring to come to the markets to raise capital. Coris will fund the rest and that has been made abundantly clear by management. Yet the likes of you keep chirping like a broken record about hypothesis that is factually incorrect!!

As for your point on shareholder returns, that is how every company works. You argue HUM is cheap so by that metric you see value here at current levels. We'll see in due course if that value materialises but until then lets stick to facts and see what happens. Sprouting hypothesis without even reading RNSs, listing to interviews or directly speaking to the company is just simply wrong and shows the motive behind such posts.

[tigerbythetail] 03/8/2021 15:31

You're quite wrong, and your post is full of "faction" and deluded wishful thinking.
I clearly have a lot more experience of raising large amounts of money from banks than you. I've described any bank's standard modus operandi when looking at a project like this. Nothing special to Hummingbird, just usual rules of engagement.
For some reason PIs always think banks are willing to take the same risks as equity investors but then are satisfied with only a few % return. But banks make their money by forcing the risk onto others as much as possible. Banks are not interested in "future cashflows" which are dependent on actual achieved production (risk 1), successful management of country risk (risk 2) and the gold price (risk 3). They want to see that the project is fully funded in hard available cash before they disburse their share of the funds (which is very rarely more than 70%). That's how it is. Like it or lump it.
And it is to be noted that this approach has worked very well for Coris Bank so far - they have made their return on their loan to Hummingbird to build Yanfolila. Shareholders of HUM have received nothing from the transaction - no dividends, no capital appreciation.
So it's 1:0 here when it comes to banks vs. shareholders!
I agree that HUM is very cheap, though, by all usual measures. Gold miners, in general, are cheap stocks. HUM is cheap even for a gold miner. But I just don't see this changing much.

[charlieeee] 03/8/2021 15:08

Polaris

My view of hedging would be for the period up to Kouroussa mine build completion and not beyond.

The reason is that margins at Kouroussa are said to be much better with an AISC of less than $1000 and so once that comes on stream, the POG becomes far less critical and there is less risk with full exposure to fluctuating gold prices.

It is the intervening period where the preservation of margin is important to keep the wheels turning on exploration etc. and build up a war chest for increased working capital. Obviously, the AISC at Yanfolila is a key element in any decision and the lower it is in H2 the less need there is for hedging.

[plat hunter] 03/8/2021 12:48

It's the same person.