Hummingbird Resources Share Discussion Threads

[ukgeorge] 26/9/2020 12:40

A very concise presentation from Pasofino.

[avsome1968] 26/9/2020 10:09

Hi BT hope your well pal, sold out here again 39p with the pull back in gold could still fall further before we get a bounce, can see hum pulling back 32p range so rather trade hum than be long term.
Hum been left behind from other gold producers its a fact yet others cant seem to see it, i fully respect your points, problems within hum and the share price says it all, but if it falls a tad lower i will add again but only to trade with have a good weekend BT.AV.

[ukgeorge] 25/9/2020 18:37

Thanks Rogue





Cassidy Gold Corp

[roguetreader] 25/9/2020 18:18

As RH states above Kouroussa has stunning grades as indicated by the HUM RNS on the 26/06/20.

When you review the only formal published resource statement on Kouroussa i.e. the 2012 PEA published by Cassidy Gold you get a pretty good resource of circa 966K Oz with the majority as an OP resource at between 2.5 – 3 gpt. This overall doesn’t scream to me the amazing intercepts the like of which were in the HUM RNS.

Looking at Cassidy’s history, you see that they delisted from the TSXV in March 2016 and have been operating privately since, where Alchemist their chief financier took them out.

Then looking at the Cassidy publications up to the point of delisting, they were still drilling and exploring the Kouroussa deposit up until at least February 2015 and probably beyond. In Feb 2015 they appointed Skandus Pty Ltd. of Australia to prepare a revised resource statement for the Kouroussa Gold Project. This revised statement was to take into account re-interpretation of the geological structures and controls of the Kouroussa Gold Project.

Then within the Cassidy Management Information Circular (MIC) publication from April 2017 there is a Comprehensive Valuation Report (CVR) produced by Evans & Evans consultants of the whole Cassidy company, that gives the owners a view of the company’s value at that time. The CVR valued Cassidy at approximately $4M. At this time the gold price was around $1230 an Oz.

Move forward to 2020 with the gold price at between $1850 and $2000 an Oz, HUM paid significantly more than $4M.

However, going back to the drill intercepts and the ongoing exploration after 2012. In the CVP from above, section 1 talks about relying on the 2012 PEA NI 43-101 statement, but then goes on to state that the Kouroussa deposit is made up of:
Probable Reserves – 252,725 Oz
Indicated Resource – 643,074 Oz
Inferred Resource – 255,946 Oz
However, there has been no ‘publishedR17; NI 43-101 since the 2012 PEA and there were ‘no reserves’ included in that PEA.

My thinking is that most of the stunning drill intercepts we see in the HUM RNS have been drilled post 2012 and this now makes the potential for Kouroussa far greater than could be evaluated in the 2012 PEA and HUM have potentially got a massive bargain. Looking forward to the next updates from HUM on Kouroussa it could be a game changer IMO.

[dickbush] 25/9/2020 17:36

Dollar rally continues, back to the level it was on 22nd July. By no coincidence so is the gold price.

What does this mean for the Dollar and gold?

[charlieeee] 25/9/2020 16:56

LLB

I am assuming that is the same as a capital repayment mortgage: same monthly payments each month, but weighted at the beginning towards interest and then by the end, mainly capital, as interest is calculated on the continually reducing capital outstanding.

[rickyhatton] 25/9/2020 10:25

"Kouroussa has stunning grades and stunning exploration potential"

"Free cash profile is going to increase dramatically ... essentially internally funded to build the Kouroussa project... internally funded to be a 200k oz plus producer wuithin the next 2 years .."

CEO, Dan Betts, as he discusses our growth to date, from #gold production in Mali, to our development project in Liberia, alongside Pasofino, and exploration in Guinea, driving towards our aim of becoming an #ethical multi-asset producer

"Substantial progress is being made at our airstrip at the Yanfolila Mine, with the expectation that it will be operational later this month. The airstrip will allow greater optionality in the movement of gold, people and certain goods"

Indication in interview that Kouroussa might be funded substantially from free cash flow and not in the main from taking on additional loan as debt

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 24/9/2020 17:22

#Retrend, interesting, I’ve been tracking the loan repayments, which have typically been -5M or -6M per quarter, but Q2 was -8M, so I took from that there were no disincentives and no over payment penalties....?

We also had USD6M cash and 8M gold in hand at H1, so any excess could be put to good use paying debt down IMO.. either way, the net cash positive milestone will not be long now, and POG has just gone positive for tomorrow morning.. :o)

[redtrend] 24/9/2020 17:03

There's an overpayment penalty on the loan which makes such overpayments unlikely and not best use of cash

[casual47] 24/9/2020 16:49

LLB, that sounds, on the face of it, like a no-brainer but it may not be that simple.

Free net cash is hugely valuable in a business and there could be many things more deserving of using it for than paying down debt.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 24/9/2020 16:41

#casual47, that is true, however I would suggest overpayments on a loan carrying 10% interest is a smart idea, smash it down as quick as possible, and use the savings on the following interest element for additional overpayments next month..., trade payables don't usually carry penalties..We're almost there.., net cash positive next.. :o)..

[casual47] 24/9/2020 16:37

There's no need to pay off debt faster than required if excess cash can be put to use more effectively.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 24/9/2020 16:17

#UKG, it is possible in Q3, but from DB comments on the recent Vox interview, I now expect that milestone in Q4, we will know the more accurate debt/cash/gold position in the next update..., my interpretation is some of Q3 profits have now gone to service the trade payables instead, the result will be the same at year end, just cutting the cake in different slices...

[ukgeorge] 24/9/2020 15:37

"Laurence Llewelyn Binliner19 Sep '20 - 13:39 - 2962 of 2997
0 2 0
Reference 12 month average Dore sale price was -35/oz below spot, payable after refining costs / impurity penalties / Ag credits..

Q3-2019 POG 1473 / sale price 1422 (-51/oz)
Q4-2019 POG 1480 / sale price 1452 (-28/oz)
Q1-2020 POG 1582 / sale price 1568 (-14/oz)
Q2-2020 POG 1710 / sale price 1663 (-47/oz)

Q3-2020 POG c1930 / sale price c1895 / AISC c970 / c925 margin
30,000 ounces / USD27.75M EBITDA

Call it USD10M a month for ease of calculations.. :o)"

I thought we were going to be debt free this quarter :(

What changed?

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 24/9/2020 14:50

Q3 closing next week, our update around 21st October and we can see the dent made in the bank debt, the payments made (around USD9M) and we should be in net cash from October ..

Bank debt was USD-26M ar Q2, with cash and gold at +14M, payments during Q3 will leave c-17M debt..

We could be just about cash/debt neutral with a tailwind at end of September, leaving the trade payables of -36M for H1 2021, depends how they cut the cake and what goes where.. :o)

[casual47] 24/9/2020 14:42

Even before the oz increase to 250k oz pa we should already see fundamentals strengthen as they reach the various milestones in the projects for Kouroussa/Dugbe. No need to wait for 18-24 months.

[borderterrier1] 24/9/2020 14:07

I really would prefer not to hear any more good news and glowing reports/podcasts from the Ceo to drop this already abysmal share price even further. After five years nobody believes it because routinely DB dangles a few carrots to throw people off. And before you say BT's being negative again, what do you expect? I really wish I had something positive to say here, but the track record is hardly impressive, is it?

And as Everyonesfool says on today's LSE bb, quote:-"Still a bit residually worried about his (DB's) actual commitment to rewarding shareholders in the end though." No!!! Really? You don't say.

[rickyhatton] 24/9/2020 12:01

Good interview on Vox.

Charting the company building strategy from explorer to developer to producer to multi mine owner in multi jurisdictions, and commenting on in 18mths to 2 years producing 250,000 oz per annum at $1,000 per oz surplus creating $250m ebitda per annum

Learning from Yanfolila should make Kouroussa clone even easier to progress. Has been carefully chosen.

And with another 100k oz net to Hum from Dugbe in due course with DFS being delivered next year

Much happening at pace but all clearly deliverable, within business plan, none is pie in the sky

[ukgeorge] 24/9/2020 10:48

In the interview it was 2 years for 250koz. Also that is massively optimistic given the lead times to build a mine and operational issues that Yanfolila has had. He also said net debt free is now set for next quarter.

Fingers crossed there have been no major problems in Q3 and that it translates into the actual cash position increasing. In a month we will see. For now it looks like the share price is going to be in the new range of 30p-40p. Hopefully the correction in the gold price is not to severe.

[kennyp52] 24/9/2020 06:57

No no ... watch it ... very interesting

[kennyp52] 24/9/2020 00:01

BT1 ... BBC Iplayer... “Extinction221; ... David Attenborough .

[dickbush] 23/9/2020 23:39

Thanks, GG. All I wanted on production. Yanfolila plus Kouroussa to produce 200-250k ounces in 18 months time takes us to the first qtr of 2022. Given the current gold price and a return to normal ASIC, circa $850, that would leave HUM on an EV/EBITDA of 07 to 0.9 for 2022. OK there's a couple of major assumptions in there but I don't know what else to work with. Note that there's nothing in for the 51% share of Dugbe which should add 100k ounces at some future date (2023?), bringing the EV/EBITDA down to 0.5 to 0.6. Nor is there anything in for future LoM extensions. One for the patient investor.

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