Hummingbird Resources Share Discussion Threads

[ronwilkes123] 22/5/2020 12:30

But people said the same thing in 2008 The people in charge won't allow gold to rise by what it should, the kicking the can down the road with debt will keep happening. A day of reckoning for gold wouldn't be a positive for the stock price here as the wider market crash would mean the only way you'd make money would be to buy physical.

[donald pond] 22/5/2020 12:25

Macro is easy to pontificate about but the fact is that interest rates won't rise again in our lifetimes. They will be 2-3% below inflation to try to inflate debt away. Gold will do what it always does: act as a store of value.

[dan_the_epic] 22/5/2020 12:24

One of the biggest things gold is used as is an inflation hedge. Inflation risk is rising, not falling, and won't be falling for at least 3-4 years.

[andrewsr] 22/5/2020 12:23

'Ordinary conditions' are now unsustainable debt levels, money printing, zero or negative interest levels, everyone existing on debt.. So when the merry-go-round stops, even briefly, nearly everyone falls over.
This pandemic isn't as a bad as the financial crisis - it's in addition to it, as debt problems hadn't been addressed, now they're a lot, lot worse.
It'll take a lot more than a year to get back to sustainable economies.

[ronwilkes123] 22/5/2020 12:18

They said gold to 3k in 2008 never happenedIt's a risk asset, a hedge, once risk dissapates it falls

[dan_the_epic] 22/5/2020 12:13

"A year or so gold will fall back to 1200oz once ordinary conditions are back"

If that is your view, short Centamin Egypt. Easy money.

But then I am not claiming to be houdini and able to forecast metals prices let alone ones with abnormal demand side drivers like gold does.

Bank of America say $3k gold, some people say $1k. I've not got a bloody clue so I take the prevailing minus 10-15% as my working assumption.

[ronwilkes123] 22/5/2020 12:00

But even 1500oz is a givenA year or so gold will fall back to 1200oz once ordinary conditions are back This is a once in a decade situation and to be honest the weakness of the major holder is letting the business down.

[dan_the_epic] 22/5/2020 11:57

If I could forecast gold or any index I'd be rich.

What I know is that the opportunity cost of holding gold is now low compared to the past, given where bonds have gone and inflation looks likely to rear its ugly head at some point which is supportive for gold.

All water under the bridge when you look at the forecast cash generation even at 1500/oz.

Cash is trash will come back and all risk assets and even PMs will be in favour. Could be a great decade for equities and commodities once this pandemic moves over

[ronwilkes123] 22/5/2020 11:54

That's fair enough But hum will never have conditions as good as thisIn 6 months a recovering business environment will lead to a gold sell off. The seller is frustrating the opportunity here. You can't take the high gold price moving forward as a given

[temujiin] 22/5/2020 11:25

If there is a big seller then the share price will be hit for as long as they sell. Nobody knows how big or small the seller will be or for how long.

As long as the fundamentals are good then longer term it doesnt matter. HUM are chucking of lots of free cash, are imo under valued. Healthy profits should be happening for years, thats all that matters to me and why I bought 160,000 shares recently.

[ronwilkes123] 22/5/2020 11:24

Easing back today The failure at 30p has killed this and fully expect it to go a bit further backwards

[new_buyer] 22/5/2020 11:03

Often when an increase in the share price is expected with good news imminent we see an increase in anticipation, as we have seen here recently, and then afterwards when people are disappointed in the share price reaction to the news it's always said that the good news was factored into the share price There was an interesting post on LSE that if with everything in HUM's favour we can't break 30p now when would we? Hopefully there are many on the sidelines waiting for the news as confirmation which will trigger them investing.

[andrewsr] 22/5/2020 10:26

AAZ had a major shareholder selling into a falling gold price, which went on for months, maybe longer, which took the price down to about 3p in 2016. They're now 140p.
At least we've had good volume to soak up the seller(s), but it's never great until it's over.
Maybe results next week....Dugbe negotiations concluded...drill results...net cash positive....dividends...
Their finances are reasonably clear or will be next week.....communications are OK - DB usually does an interview after a significant RNS
When the share price disappoints, there will always be unsubstantiated criticisms like 'there's a strategic reason' for the poor performance, bad communication, poor management etc...

[dan_the_epic] 22/5/2020 10:01

Of course and I agree there is a seller. But I don't think I'm going to look back n 3 months and say, "I should've sold because there was an active seller in mid May".

Of course they are also selling for a reason. I trust my own analysis. That's all anyone can ever do. I think I've got HUM right. I could easily be wrong! I sometimes am! My batting average on the whole is good, but no guarantees ever. I was not in it, but Sylvania Platinum used to have a huge seller. It lasted weeks of every day sales against a barrage of retail buys. The stock did not budgetpast 37 even though metal prices were soaring and the financials were unbelievable.

Then the seller was exhausted and it ripped to 63 in weeks.

Of course I didn't buy as I absolutely hate the South African Rand and trying to predict it!!

[ronwilkes123] 22/5/2020 09:50

Dan someone is drip feeding shares into rises and has done for sometime - that is factI'd suggest there is a strategic reason behind this which we won't know till it happens

[dan_the_epic] 22/5/2020 09:45

I don't have visibility that is truly happening, Ron. Do you? I looked back through the RNS feed and they bought the same amount they sold recently in only December so it's not really much of a tell.

If this was a real issue, the stock would not be at 2 year highs.

[ronwilkes123] 22/5/2020 09:42

Large holders selling down big stakes isn't positive dan

[dan_the_epic] 22/5/2020 09:40

No offense to anyone here, but this is exactly what I want to see and what needs to happen for this to rerate. Churn of old holders out who are become wary of the story, and new holders in who see the forward financials and opportunity.

Absolutely necessary, I've said it before and perversely I'm pleased it's happening.

[ronwilkes123] 22/5/2020 09:38

Exactly - a great post summing up serious concerns

[sp500g] 22/5/2020 09:36

I just sold my stake in HUM & i'm out. The share price performance is not acceptable to me for a gold producer in the last months. I could make a small profit and will be buying doller nominated gold producers probably Newmont. The fundamentals are fine here, but i'm no longer betting on a rerate by the market here. In business everything is about trust and there are some things on communication side that don't fit in the picture. For me this is communication about mine development and concrete future shareholder compensation. Also i don't like share price dilution when a company is almost debt free. The ongoing comments in here are low key stock pumps. I can't stand these comments anymore that HUM should buy further parts of Cora gold. This seems orchestrated to me and the deal itself wouldn't make much sense to me (except that some former HUM employee became their CEO). Bordertroll goodbye to you also, i still can't understand your constant whining, why don't you just leave it.

[andrewsr] 22/5/2020 09:09

We don't need a running commentary on the trades, we can see it in the charts above.

[ronwilkes123] 22/5/2020 08:15

Sellers in charge againExpecting 27p back test

[ronwilkes123] 22/5/2020 07:14

I think a few are having similar thoughts

[dudishes] 22/5/2020 06:19

G'day, thought a good move from Sister Co to here, and profitable, but in terms of Gold plays, decent rise say 10%, but stagnating.

All positions sold late yesterday. I will continue to watch, good luck.

PS: Did the same with CEY at good profit. Challenged Mgnt CEY wrt accts, but not done it here.

I may be back!

cheers

Dud