Hummingbird Resources Share Discussion Threads

[zhockey] 03/1/2018 09:56

Charles, fairly priced here I would say based on 100k/yr. Will require discovery news or gold price increases to go up IMO.

[lasata] 03/1/2018 09:52

It is a mystery why this share is treading water when interest in gold is perking up........?

[charles clore] 03/1/2018 09:33

Could this go to 27p if support fails at 34p? The chart says so but my gut instinct says it's up from here.

[croasdalelfc] 03/1/2018 08:45

Gold up 4.5% since first pour - another 2.5% and HUM will take approx an extra $1.75m in Q1.

[ukgeorge] 02/1/2018 16:00

I think it was likely a delayed publication of a sell. So hopefully cleared now and these can move higher.

O/T Did anyone buy any petra?

[pecker1] 02/1/2018 15:28

chip,

Have a great 2018 too - yes, let's catch up later. My buy and hold has worked well with RRS and FM but was a disaster with OXS - lost the lot which was a huge hit!!

[darola] 02/1/2018 15:28

They are currently offering above bid for 150k. If that 4m was a sell they'd have s shed load to get rid of and wouldn't be offering anything other than fill orders.

[zeberdie] 02/1/2018 15:02

No UkGeorge its an absolute BUY.

[ukgeorge] 02/1/2018 14:50

So can we assume the near 4 Million trade is a sale?

[pecker1] 02/1/2018 14:05

chip,

Good to see you here and hope you are well. As a former holder of Glencar, I could not resist a small stake in HUM after all the expensive exploration work that had been done on the properties and the promising results.

My first take on HUM is that their strength and focus is on development and production rather than in exploration. No bad thing as they can buy into new projects with cash flow from production. Would welcome your opinion - have been trying to find a nascent Randgold, so far without success!

[chipperfrd] 02/1/2018 13:09

I agree with Darola. Best to keep expectations limited to what can be realistically achieved over the next 12-18 months.

As it stands, if they perform as they are predicting, the results ought to be very rewarding for all stakeholders IMHO.
Chip

[darola] 02/1/2018 13:08

No, full years production. I expect that the rate will fluctuate as the stockpile is reduced and the volume of ore varies - I've always been surprised that they could predict volume to that degree - 132k is quite a precise number. I'd also expect them to be conservative to build in some risk, but feedback is that they have a well thought through spread sheet!

[croasdalelfc] 02/1/2018 13:05

Is there any reason why HUM couldn't buy a larger stake in Cora at some stage? After exploration and reserve estimate

[croasdalelfc] 02/1/2018 12:27

Thanks for the clarification Darola

[charles clore] 02/1/2018 12:07

Darola - is that the production RATE, or total production? A rate of 132k oz could be achieved if during one quarter they produced 33k oz.

[qs99] 02/1/2018 12:06

Have sold a few of HUM and shoved into SHG this morning which looks like it may at last be "turning"....have kept a big old stake in HUM but reckon it may wait now for first figures before moving materially on again.....GLA and DYOR....

[darola] 02/1/2018 12:04

The target is not 132k oz in 2018. It's in full year of production. From what I've read HUM have stated full production will start in Q2, so one should conclude 132k oz will be produced by end of Q1 2019 - although. If they are even Qs (33k), then that's 99k Q2 to Q4, plus what they do in Q1 - say 20k then circa 115k by year end - although not sure when HUMs accounts run. If its April to April, then they will still register 132k as first full year.

[charles clore] 02/1/2018 11:42

Croas - I can't remember where I saw it but believe they are expecting a higher first quarter production figure than that.

[croasdalelfc] 02/1/2018 11:37

Ramp up in production is the priority for Q1, plus the target is 132,000 oz in 2018.So is this realistic?Q1 25000 ozQ2 35000 ozQ3 36000 ozQ4 34000 ozIs their a seasonal element - weather conditions /rainy season?

[zhockey] 02/1/2018 11:36

Chip,

You need to factor this against reserves.

[charles clore] 02/1/2018 11:33

chip, ZH - The price is sitting near the lower band of support now and I would be surprised to see it drop much lower. If it does, something else is probably going on that we don't know about imho.

Regarding p/e it is hard to predict what ratio might apply here before a few months of production have passed.

As far as the selling goes I think we may have a slight overhang waiting to be cleared after which I suspect buying will resume.

Another bit of info that may be of interest here

[chipperfrd] 02/1/2018 11:11

My point being that x6 is at the very under-valued level in comparison to the sector!

[chipperfrd] 02/1/2018 11:08

Here are a few P/Es from other producers for comparison.


Stock name ...... Code PERKinross ......... KGC . 322.3Goldcorp ........ GG .. 133.2Franco Nevada ... FNV . 84.3Agnico Eagle .... AEM . 78.4Avino ........... ASM . 62.3Kirkland Lake ... KL .. 59.6Barrick ......... ABX . 55.0Centamin ........ CEY . 47.4Randgold ........ RRS . 45.4Fortuna ......... FSM . 43.9Fresnillo ....... FRES. 42.6Newcrest ........ NCM . 41.1Silver Wheaton .. SLW . 39.7Hochschild ...... HOC . 38.8Yamana .......... AUY . 37.3AngloGold ....... AU .. 34.3Patagonia ....... PGD . 27.7Acasia .......... ACA . 26.3Endevour Silver . EXK . 24.8Northern Star ... NST . 24.2Hecla ........... HL .. 24.1Silver Standard . SSRM. 24.0Gold Res ........ GORO. 23.5Pan American .... PAAS. 22.7Sandstorm ....... SAND. 22.5Klondex ......... KDX . 21.5Regis Res ....... RRL . 19.2S&P 500 avge .... S&P . 18.9Petropavlovsk ... POG . 18.8Goldfields ...... GV .. 17.3Polymetal ....... POLY. 16.2Coeur Mining .... CDE . 14.8Highland ........ HGM . 14.7Mandalay ........ MND . 13.1Harmony ......... HMY . 12.8OceanaGold ...... OGC . 12.3Pan African ..... PAF . 11.6Caledonia ....... CMCL. 11.5Silver Lake ..... SLR . 11.5Trans Siberian .. TSG . 10.2SilverCorp ...... SVM . 10.0Tahoe Res ....... TAHO. 9.5St Barbara ...... SBM . 8.7Medusa .......... MML . 8.0Beadell ......... BDR . 7.9Resolute ........ RSG . 4.0




Chip

[zhockey] 02/1/2018 10:24

Charles,

If they produce 100k a year at 800 AISC, assuming 50% goes on tax and royalties that's £20M profit and a PE of 6 is about fair value here?