Hummingbird Resources Share Discussion Threads

[charles clore] 01/9/2017 15:29

bishan - look back over the past 2 years and you will see evidence of achievement. The company has quality written all over it so I don't see any reason to doubt they will continue to meet their targets.

[bishan bedi] 01/9/2017 15:23

Reckon the market will want to see evidence of achievement before ascribing that sort of valuation

[darola] 01/9/2017 15:12

Just listen to the last interview, it's all in there. Next updates will be on plant commissioning - cold, then hot. Hot is basically the start of production.

Company forecasts exclude known additional reserves, which they have stated they will model once production is under way. They've said 132k ozs in year 1, but that could easily stretch to 150k ozs. If that's the target area, then at a $1350 gold price your looking between $85m and $97m.

With a market cap currently of £120m, that's a PE of around 1.8 to 1.6. A more than realistic PE of 5 gives you 95p to £1.07.

DYOR...

[bishan bedi] 01/9/2017 15:03

Crudely put, it isn't far off 75m. From memory it is based on 1250 gold

1250
-AISC 700
=$550 x 130k oz
=$71m

so today that goes to

1320
-AISC 700
=$620 x 130k oz
=$81m

I'm not sure as to whether the AISC includes 100% of corporate spend though. I would expect it to be full C3 cost but there are always extras.

Plus we need to bear in mind they will be going after the 'fillet' in the first year to make themselves look good, and production is scheduled to drop 30% in y2.

But if they can pay back the debt and keep prodcution costs within 15% of their target, it'll make money.

[bishan bedi] 01/9/2017 14:50

Yes QS99. Though I deliberately didn't mention a parabolic gold move, as it is outside the company's sphere of influence.

The financial case is extremely compelling, but we all know what miners are like when it comes to moving from the excel model to reality of the pit :)

I also have 'Mali politics' 'Mali mining' and 'Mali fighting' set as google alerts. Pays to be ahead of, or even just up with, the game. People could have got out of Tanzanian miners relatively unscathed if they were up with the political scene...

All that said, this is the most exciting project I have seen in a UK miner in ages.

[qs99] 01/9/2017 14:47

£121m market cap now, with debt, but from memory and DYOR here, was it not $75m free cash in year 1 at a much lower gold price? In which case IMO doubling from here is feasible and £1 is doable once the proof of production is there.....Let's see....and GLA

[new_buyer] 01/9/2017 14:45

I'll be delighted with 50p at Xmas and I don't think that'll be easy, £1 would be phenomenal!!

[qs99] 01/9/2017 14:44

well with GP moving even higher, the implied value to HUM has to be increasing IMO....agreed they need to be selling the stuff at the AISC they have talked of before we may move materially higher, but this is well primed IMO so far they have delivered everything they said they would....DYOR and GLA

[bishan bedi] 01/9/2017 14:41

I'd say the next big drivers in the share price will be the hitting (or not) of the cost of production and production targets. Everything else is likely recognised in the price at this time, I would have thought.

They've done bloody well to get this far and still be on time and CAPEX budget, which bodes well. I'm guessing it'll be Q1 before we see for certain whether things are going well on the operation of the plant.

[zhockey] 01/9/2017 14:35

Charles how do you justify that?

[rileyma] 01/9/2017 13:27

Not out of the question cc i think, ,,,

Nice 10 plt 997t

[charles clore] 01/9/2017 13:08

With the mining started now my share price target is a pound by Xmas.

[darola] 01/9/2017 12:06

Yep PR is brilliant here. They are clearly proud of what they've achieved and going all out to get Hum re-rated.

I've never been so comfortable with such a significant holding.

[rileyma] 01/9/2017 09:20

Expected the next leg up to start tues/wed with the excellent rns and pr pump
But to no avail yet,,,, :/

[qs99] 01/9/2017 09:07

great thanks Darola

[zeberdie] 01/9/2017 09:01

I love Dan the man I do .

[darola] 01/9/2017 08:58

They have said no. And given the bullish mood of gold at the moment I doubt they will. On the interview earlier this week Dan made the point that every $10 rise in Gold adds >$1m to profits, so another clear indication there is no hedge.

[qs99] 01/9/2017 08:22

surprised HUM hasn't moved more given GP spike....wonder if they will hedge any of their forward sales...haven't looked...

[qs99] 31/8/2017 21:33

Gold price motoring again

[qs99] 30/8/2017 18:58

Yup £1 would be nice but genuinely believe that it would only be the starter for ten if they even begin to deliver what the CEO has intimated....2018 p/e of 2 at a lower gold price, before they increase resource at existing sites as well bodes well for material share price accretion if they continue to deliver IMO.....and then yield potentially as well DYOR

[darola] 30/8/2017 18:25

Big boys must be eyeing this to replenish supply. Let's just hope we rerate out of reach so the full potential can be realised. £1 would make my retirement very nice, more than that and I'm having 2 cars!!

[qs99] 30/8/2017 17:48

some of the links to mining sites and interviews with the CEO have been really interesting, especially when he talks about increased mine life from existing properties, even before future acquisitions.....team delivering well IMO to date, so long may that continue...and with the GP rising, let's hope it stays above $1,300 then HUM should be making some material "hay" in 2018 and beyond...DYOR and GLA, but £1 share price is just the start IMO at c/£300m+ market cap or so....

[bookwormrobert] 30/8/2017 17:47

I essentially agree with JimBowen here - just need to keep a watching eye on Hummingbird's progress and the price of gold and wait for a year or more for the full share price rerating to occur. Very impressed by Dan Betts and whole management team.

[rhuvaal2] 30/8/2017 17:44

Thanks to all posters: I read you each day, been here quite a while and am optimistic :)