Hummingbird Resources Share Discussion Threads

[casual47] 15/8/2019 23:39

I thought he came across well. Perhaps some may prefer the car salesman type but I was rather reassured by his straightforward no-bullsh1t approach which doesn't seek to minimise the issues. A "smoothy" CEO is probably more appropriate prior to production (Chaarat's Artem Volynets is a great example of this and an excellent choice for the stage they are in, imo). While there is a lot of science in mining it is not completely predictable and all the modelling and mine plans in the world cannot prevent geological surprises, nor extreme weather. See for example Centamin 2018. (That said, I am still not completely over the whole Bunker Hill thing and the other unnecessary missteps from last year)

[bo doodak] 15/8/2019 23:09

hTTps://miningmaven.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&id=51&Itemid=553 DB as usual doesn't inspire confidence with his manner and his judicious choice of words he to describes the how and why of the move to underground mining leaves open the possibility that open pit problems, whilst perhaps solved at present are liable to re-occur. Or maybe I am just too cynical.

[borderterrier1] 15/8/2019 20:48

Posters/investors on here should read the two recent posts from Ctw2014 and Willowman of the LSE bb. It's been going on for a long time, those in the know lining their pockets at the expense of others. Sea of blue and the share price goes down? I wonder who the crooks are?

[casual47] 15/8/2019 14:44

Based on how other shares have moved it will be the maiden dividend that will see a rerating of the stock. Once this is divi paying the shareprice could be north of 85p...imo etc.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 15/8/2019 13:48

#casual47, I can wait until we are net cash positive, and with current debt repayment rates USD2M/month in July, could be USD3M/month from August at 1500POG that shouldn't be much more than 12 months from now if Gold holds up.. :o) Fully debt free could be another year away.., but that day is getting closer, a 25% FCF dividend payout would be just fine..! Q3-2018 - Court approved the cancellation of the Company’s share premium allowing the Company the ability to pay dividends and buy-back its shares..

[casual47] 15/8/2019 13:32

Net debt doesn't need to be zero in order for them to pay dividends. Most dividend paying gold miners have lots of net debt (e.g. Poly $1.5B, HGM $180m)

[run12] 15/8/2019 13:27

Hi LLB - thanks for the considered response. I agree pretty much with all you have posted. It should be very interesting come end of the year. ATB

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 15/8/2019 13:19

#run12, I was being cautiously conservative with 30p, but realistic too.. :o) Looking back on where we were pre-pitwall collapse for FY2018 with a 1271 POG, and 91,000/Oz we were around 27/28p Forward to 2019 we are now recovering the AISC down to 998/Oz, still way too high, but this will have some carry over element from the repair work done, now washed through from Q3 with 1500 POG and 50% more profit margin heading into FY for 110-125,000 Ounce guidance for 2019.., current run rate at 10,000/Oz a month the Q3/Q4 numbers/financials will be very revealing 130,000/Oz guidance from 2020.. Deleveraging debt rate now running at USD -2M per month from total debt USD 51M at Q2, net debt USD 39M and that will accelerate too possibly unlocking dividends early around 18 month out from now..?

[borderterrier1] 15/8/2019 11:40

I agree. Hum isn't the share for that. I didn't expect "immediate profits" but I suspect if the share price isn't moving N now it never will. So why do I hang on? Like most investors here who have been waiting for a glimmer of hope, you only lose when you sell, so we hang on. But after this length of time, it ain't looking good.

[run12] 15/8/2019 10:21

LLB - 30p would put HUM at just over 100mil IF there are no big failings and targeting 130,000 oz, with those sorts of margins I would expect a much higher price - with the usual caveat that they don't mess things up. That is the big IF - they don't mess things up and they actually start to deliver.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 15/8/2019 09:17

Q2-AISC 998/Oz USD 500/Oz profit margin at the current POG.. Q3 AISC est 900..? Q4 AISC est 800..? Margins set to rise as the quantities go up as the new ball mill comes on stream in Q3 spreading fixed costs, and any residual costs from pit wall remediation works filter out to zero... 2020 should be where we see a stand alone year on costs, new capacity and with a bit of luck 1500+ POG too.. :o) 30p for Xmas...?

[moneyfornothing1] 15/8/2019 07:28

oohrogerpalmer not sure what will come next, either the LOM extension or the Q3 update which will be mid to late October, I would assume. Everything moving in the right direction and anyone who has invested before knows that a share price does not go up in a straight line so profit takers might be behind the drop the last day or so. Generally though everything is positive here but impatience can get the better of some investors who want immediate big profits, not sure HUM is the share for that.

[borderterrier1] 14/8/2019 23:20

NB Fabulous. More good news, impressive podcast by DB and the share price drops another 8%. Yippie!!!!

[new_buyer] 14/8/2019 15:44

Yes the next Q update plus the LOM extension should help significantly and then will be interesting what the plans are in relation to CORA and DUGBE now that the price of gold is in such a strong position.

[borderterrier1] 14/8/2019 13:58

oohrogerpalmer My fingers have been crossed for 2 1/2 years with this now.

[oohrogerpalmer] 14/8/2019 13:50

The next update will be the critical one. We're in the middle of the rainy season and all eyes will be watching how they cope. Given last year's disaster we need the new pit wall to hold and report decent production figures. If we do get those then could be blue skies thereafter. Fingers crossed.

[qs99] 14/8/2019 12:08

thanks RT and agree, have re-entered the fray here....

[redtrend] 14/8/2019 12:01

Hi QS - I consider HUM extremely "under-valued" rather than "fairly valued" ; ) It feels they have turned a corner, but they still have a lot to prove in producing a solid Q3 (that will show 2 quarters of consistent turn-around, with this one being critical in rainy season) and they need to produce a Life of Mine update which is eagerly awaited. Even without these 2 updates though, with gold $1,500+, current market cap appears absurd at £80m.

[new_buyer] 14/8/2019 11:55

SP has gone from low 12's to mid 20's this year so no surprise if there are some profit takers out there. POG looking good despite the efforts to derail it and LOM news hopefully just around the corner.

[qs99] 14/8/2019 11:05

gold motoring again. good to see decent progress here with HUM and have dipped in again...GLA and DYOR

[bittorrent] 14/8/2019 08:35

Profit taking? It's had a good run.

[squash90] 14/8/2019 08:23

Why the drop ?

[borderterrier1] 13/8/2019 21:00

Up 3% today. Long may it continue.

[new_buyer] 13/8/2019 17:53

I can’t get my head around selling because a chart says a point has been reached but it does work for many so it must have its positives.